1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:10/07/2025 04:01:22 GMTDistributed on:10/07/2025 04:01:22 GMT10 July 2025Deutsche BankResearch Europe North America Consumer Staples Beverage Industry European Distillers Date Industry Update US at home inventory elevated;wholesale inventories reach new

2、 peakAt home inventories remain elevated,though a bit down vs May.Our proprietary dbDIG survey of 3,000 consumers across the US and Europe-now updated for June-suggests that US at home inventories remain elevated with 38%of respondents indicating that at home spirits inventory is ahead of pre-covid

3、levels.In addition,European at home inventories increased slightly MoM led by the UK.and below its peak in MarchThe proportion of US consumers who have higher at home inventories vs pre-covid reduced MoM in June to 38%vs May to 41%,April 38%and March 42%.This may imply some at home destocking if sus

4、tainedPremiumisation trends improving in the USThe proportion of consumers who say they buy better when they replenish continues to be above the proportion who buy lower quality and has witnessed an uptick in June.This suggests premiumisation may have improved for US spirits.By category,premiumisati

5、on increased the most for Cognac,Scotch and Irish Whiskey.Wholesaler inventories/sales created a new peak in MayUS Census bureau data indicates that alcohol wholesaler inventories increased 5.6%YoY and+1.7%MoM in May.Wholesaler depletions decreased 1.5%YoY meaning the inventory/depletions ratio incr

6、eased to 1.71x reaching a new peak,vs its previous peak in April 1.68x and well above the 30yr average of 1.25x.This may have been impacted by pre-buying ahead of tariffs.Not cheap enough given elevated uncertaintyDiageo,Pernod,Campari and Remy are-24%,-16%,+1%and-10%year to date respectively,underp