1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:11/07/2025 19:32:08 GMTDistributed on:11/07/2025 19:32:08 GMT11 July 2025Restaurant Trend CheckOverall restaurant trends modestly improved in June.Based on data from Black Box,restaurant SSS were+2%in June,improving from+1.4%in May and+1.1%in April.June

2、 traffic was-0.9%,a slight improvement from-1%in May,-1.5%in April and-2.2%in March.June average check was+2.9%,accelerating for the first time in four months,noting average check had been moderating 30-40bps every month since January.June 1-yr SSS improved month-over-month for all segments except f

3、ast casual(noting fast casual had seen the strongest month-over-month acceleration in May),while casual dining again had the strongest absolute SSS.SSS included QSR+0.3%(+20bps vs May),fast casual+0.6%(-110bps),casual dining+5.2%(+220bps),family dining+0.1%(+10bps),upscale casual+0.4%(+20bps)and fin

4、e dining-1.2%(+10bps).2Q restaurant SSS were+1.5%,improving 120bps from 1Q25(+0.3%).2Q traffic was-1.1%,improving 190bps Q/Q,while average check was 2.7%,moderating 80bps Q/Q.USFD/PFGC Merger PotentialOn 7/11,media reports came out suggesting USFD and PFGC could be exploring a potential combination,

5、which seems somewhat similar to the Builders FirstSource merger led by Dave Flitman.The merger of equals would combine the#2 and#3 market share players,which together generate$100BN+in total sales,or$75BN+excluding PFGCs Convenience/Vistar segments,which compares to SYY at$80BN+of sales,or$65BN+excl

6、uding International.The stock reactions were somewhat subdued(USFD largely flat,PFGC up 5%),though there still seems to be a lot of uncertainty around the potential viability of the deal given FTC concerns(and unsuccessful close of SYY/USFD in 2015)as well as risk of divestitures(we think it would b