德意志银行:美光科技(MU)-首次覆盖报告:存储芯片行业复苏;给予买入评级-250709(英文版)(50页).pdf

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德意志银行:美光科技(MU)-首次覆盖报告:存储芯片行业复苏;给予买入评级-250709(英文版)(50页).pdf

1、7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPa7T2se3r0Ot6kwoPaDistributed on:09/07/2025 20:16:10 GMTDistributed on:09/07/2025 20:16:10 GMT9 July 2025Deutsche BankResearch Rating Buy North America United States TMT Semiconductors Company Micron Date Initiation of Coverage A trip down memory lane;Initiate with Buy ratingWe are lau

2、nching coverage of Micron(Ticker:MU)with Buy rating and$150 price target.We are constructive on both the cyclical and secular setup facing Micron.On the secular side,we believe High Bandwidth Memory(HBM)is an underrated driver of gen/gen AI processor performance improvements,and believe growth in HB

3、M bits and ASPs should drive DRAM revenue growth(75%of MU revenues)and profitability above historical levels.We believe Micron will be a particular beneficiary of this trend,with HBM revenues expected to rise to 23%of sales by CY26E(from 0%in CY23),and HBM GMs well above corporate average(DBe 60%+,v

4、s.non-HBM 35%).On the cyclical side,we see a path to continued bit growth and ASP expansion in non-HBM DRAM in the coming years driven by higher DRAM content-per-device as well as healthy supply-demand dynamics.In NAND(the remaining 25%of MU revs)we are admittedly less optimistic,as we see fewer con

5、tent-per-application growth drivers than we do in DRAM,and view the supply-demand environment as less favorable.All told,this constructive outlook leaves our CY26 revenue/EPS estimates+3%/+8%above current Street estimates(DBe$51.7b/$14.00),and we see a solid path to further positive revisions.Despit

6、e the YTD run for MU shares(MU+48%YTD vs.S&P+6%,SOX+13%),we view current levels as still offering attractive upside,with shares on trading at 9x P/E on what we view to be conservative CY26E estimates.Therefore,we base our$150 P/T on 11x our CY26E EPS of$14.00,in-line with the companys 5-year median

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