1、M Foundation Food Producers|EuropeGlobal Chocolate Unwrapped:Cocoa Prices Fall in June Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+David J RouxEquity Analyst David.R +44 20 7425-1040 Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCMegan Alexander Clapp,CFAEquity Analyst Megan.A.C +1 212 761-3715 Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Sa

2、rah SimonEquity Analyst Sarah.S +44 20 7425-6064 Chris Linford,CFAResearch Associate Chris.L +44 20 7425-1639 Morgan Stanley&Co.LLCAlexia TsimikasResearch Associate Alexia.T +1 212 761-2343 Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Richard LiResearch Associate Richard.L +44 20 7425-1976 Morgan Stanley C.T

3、.V.M.S.A.+Julia RizzoEquity Analyst Julia.R +55 11 3048-6114 Morgan Stanley&Co.International plc+Rashad KawanEquity Analyst Rashad.K +44 20 7677-3183 Tilly EnoEquity Analyst Tilly.E +44 20 7677-3662 Food ProducersEuropeIndustry ViewIn-LinePackaged FoodsNorth AmericaIndustry ViewIn-Line Our report tr

4、acks developments across the chocolate value chain.Useful for specialists and generalists alike,we present key data(supply,demand,weather,industry commentary&news flow),our MS Cocoa Cost Tracker,and a mini-primer.Cocoa prices fall in June as mid-crop concerns subside:Despite poor supply data in June

5、,we think cocoa prices reflect higher stock levels and softer demand data.Average London cash price fell -13%m/m in June and US-6%.Cocoa forward curves remain in backwardation,with London July26 contract -7%vs cash and US -19%,and curves shifted-7%/-5%lower over the month.Supply trends deteriorate.C

6、umulative arrivals +1%y/y for 2024/25 season through June compared to+9%in May.The drop in June arrivals was due to a higher rejection rate of beans due to poor quality.As focus shifts towards the 2025/26 season,July is expected to be a critical month for young pod development.On 2 July the Ghana Co