1、ab23 June 2025Global ResearchPowered byUBS Evidence LabYESTesla,Inc.The Tesla Robotaxi Network opportunityInvestor focus on robotaxi is high.With Tesla launching their first robotaxi service in Austin,investor focus on the autonomous ride-hailing opportunity is very high.As such,we take a look at th

2、e opportunity.Net,if all goes according to plan(technology,regulatory,building and scaling a network,etc.)the opportunity can be significant-potentially a 2.3mm vehicle fleet by 2040 generating$200bn in revenue.Recall,Elon Musk indicated that autonomy is one of two(along with humanoid robots)main dr

3、ivers of the stocks long-term value.While Tesla appears to be well positioned,we believe the opportunity is already priced into the stock.We built out our robotaxi model and believe the opportunity is worth$99/share which when considering other parts of TSLAs business,still leaves us cautious on TSL

4、As overall valuation.Tesla is uniquely positioned for an all robotaxi service.This is due to their vertical integration of autonomous stack and vehicle,along with running their own transportation network company(TNC).In this note,we lay out a plausible case for how Teslas US robotaxi service can gro

5、w and what it could look like by 2040.That said,TSLAs initial robotaxi service may start small/limited including:10-20 vehicles,geo-fenced,employees/invite only,safety monitors,tele-operations.But,this isnt different from how other autonomous ride hailing services started.We believe its prudent for

6、Tesla to begin operations this way before scaling.Despite limited initial operations,starting the service can help Tesla control the robotaxi narrative while also drawing more investor interest and focus to this opportunity,which could buoy the stock.Note:while we detail our assumptions inside,we ca