1、ECONOMIC AND STEEL MARKET OUTLOOKQ2 REPORTData up to,including,Q4 202420252026June 2025economic and steel market outlook 2025-2026second quarter report3EXECUTIVE SUMMARYThe current downturn in EU apparent steel consumptionreflecting poor demand conditions began in the second quarter of 2022,triggere

2、d by war-related disruptions,as well as unprecedented increases in energy prices and production costs.This downturn has persisted to date,resulting in the third consecutive annual recession.Demand conditions have been worsening considerably since the second half of 2022,and this negative cycle has c

3、ontinued until the fourth quarter of 2024,mainly as a result of growing global economic uncertainty,higher interest rates before policy rate cuts were implemented-and overall manufacturing weakness.The dire consequences of the conflict in Ukraine and the energy shock on steel-using industries,along

4、with worsened overall economic outlook,triggered a severe recession(-8%)already in 2022.These protracted downside factors further impacted apparent steel consumption in 2023,resulting in two other consecutive annual drops in 2023 and 2024(-6%and-1.1%,respectively).In 2025,contrary to earlier expecta

5、tions of a more favourable industrial outlook and an improved steel demand,apparent steel consumption is now set to decline again(-0.9%).This downward revision is largely due to the anticipated impactalbeit difficult to quantify of U.S.tariffs and the resulting uncertainty and trade-related disrupti

6、ons.In 2026,apparent steel consumption is projected to finally recover(+3.4%),conditional on a positive evolution in the industrial outlook and an easing of global tensions,both of which remain unpredictable at this stage.In 2026,apparent steel consumption is finally projected to rebound(+3.4%),cond