绿色转型会导致通货膨胀吗2.pdf

1、Is the Green Transition Inflationary?Marco Del Negro,Julian di Giovanni,Keshav Dogra3 June 2025Bank of Korea International Conference 2025,SeoulDiscussion by Anton NakovQuestions and MotivationHow does the green transition(=carbon taxation)affect inflation and outputdynamics?Recent debates have rais

2、ed concerns about persistent inflationary pressures.Is higher inflation inevitable,or can central banks maintain price stability duringthe green transition?MethodologyDel Negro et al.(2025):Multi-sector New Keynesian input-output model calibrated to U.S.data.Sectoral heterogeneity in emissions and p

3、rice stickiness.Central role for the energy sector within the production network.Carbon tax acts as a sector-specific cost-push shock.Key FindingsDel Negro et al.argue that:The green transition can generate important inflation-output trade-offs.These trade-offs depend on how flexible prices are in t

4、he“dirty”sectors relative tothe rest of the economyIn their calibration,dirty sectors have relatively more flexible prices.Cost shocksoriginating in dirty sectors create a short-run inflation-output trade-off.Input-output linkages amplify the inflationary effects of carbon taxes throughindirect cost

5、 channels.Policy implication:Central banks face challenging stabilization choices and cannoteasily“look through”carbon tax shocks.Strengths of Del Negro et al.(2025)Timely and Policy-RelevantAddresses a central policy question facing monetary authorities today:theinteraction between climate policy a

6、nd inflation dynamics.Provides clear insights into the near-term macroeconomic challenges posed bytransition risks.Realistic Sectoral ModelingRich input-output structure captures the amplification of sector-specific shocksthrough production networks.Sectoral heterogeneity in emissions intensity and