绿色转型会导致通货膨胀吗？.pdf

1、Is the Green Transition Inflationary?Marco Del Negro,Julian di Giovanni,Keshav DograFederal Reserve Bank of New York,CEPR2025 Bank of Korea International Conferenceon“Structural Shifts and Monetary Policy”Disclaimer:The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect those of theFederal Reserve Bank

2、 of New York or the Federal Reserve System.QuestionWill the green transition(taxes on polluting industries)result in higher inflation?(Schnabel,2022)2/28Answer:conceptualThe green transition does not force monetary policymakers to tolerate higher inflation,butcan generate a tradeoff(inflation vs.out

3、put gap)Tradeoffdepends on the interaction of relative stickiness and the I/O networkGreen transition requires an increase in the relative price of dirty sectorssectorsthat are directly(eg,oil)or indirectly(via the I/O network)affected by the taxIf stickiness was the same in all sectors,inflation wo

4、uld be zero or negative whenpolicy closes the output gap:relative prices do all the workIf dirty prices are more flexible relative to other prices,the adjustment in relativeprices requires either inflation,if the gap is closed,or a recession to force otherprices down3/28Answer:quantitative 70-sector

5、 calibrated network modelThe carbon tax propagates through the I/O matrixEven if(dirty)energy is not a major input for the economy as a whole,it is animportant input for some sectors,which are in turn inputs for the rest of the economySchnabel is right:A gradual increase in carbon taxes from$0 to$10

6、0 would generate asizable tradeoffCore inflation would be 50 to 100 bps higher than target for 10 yearsInflation can only stabilized at a cost of a sizable contraction in economic activity4/28Related literatureEmpiricalK anzig(2022)finds significant effects of carbon tax on inflation,while Konradt a