重点任务与货币政策：对美联储2025年框架审查的影响.pdf

1、FOCUSED MANDATES AND MONETARY POLICY:IMPLICATIONS FOR THE FEDERAL RESERVES 2025 FRAMEWORK REVIEWDiscussion byRoberto ChangRutgers University and NBER2025 Bank of Korea International ConferenceMOTIVATIONPeriodic review of Federal Reserves 2020 Long Run Strategic FrameworkAn opportunity to discuss if

2、the Framework prevented a timely policy response to post Covid inflation More generally,a moment to reflect on central bank mandates and how we attempt to fulfill themWHERE THE DEBATE IS COMING FROMthe world achieved a working consensus on the core principles of monetary policy by the late 1990sThe

3、consensus theory of monetary policyimplies that inflation targeting yields the best cyclical behavior of employment and output that monetary policy alone can deliver M.Goodfriend,How the World Achieved Consensus on Monetary Policy,Jour.Econ.Perspectives 2007THE CONSENSUS:SPECIFICSDefining aspects of

4、 IT(Svensson 2010):1.An announced numerical inflation target2.An explicit decision making framework that assigns a prime role to the implied inflation forecast in setting policy instruments 3.A high degree of transparency and accountabilityTHE 2020 FED STATEMENT:NOTABLE ASPECTSPolicy decisions must

5、be informed by“deviations of inflation from its longer-run goal”and“shortfalls of employment from its maximum level”Concern with ELB justifies average inflation targeting(occasionally tolerating inflation“moderately above the 2 percent target for some time”)and using“full range of tools”An elevation

6、 of employment objective which may have led to delayed response to inflationary pressures(Romer and Romer 2024)MAIN TOPICS IN EVANSS PAPER.1.Does the Strategic Framework need to be so detailed,orinstead leaner?2.Is there a need to further refine inflation forecasting models?Why?3.Should the Feds man