保险媒体今年关注的关键主题.pdf

1、1Key industry topics for 2025Thorsten Schier,Insurance InsiderKey topics Insurance Insider is watching this year1.Macro-economic developments:tariffs,gov.cutbacks2.Cat losses,particularly from convective storms3.Ongoing reserving issues in US casualty4.Consolidation in the broker space31.Macro-econo

2、mic impacts41.Macro-economic impacts The chart shows and commercial insurance direct premiums written change compared to GDP growth over time.Commercial insurers premium growth was heavily correlated with GDP growth by an R factor of 0.9 over the post-pandemic period.On the other hand,brokers are co

3、rrelated,but to a lower extent,with an R of 0.6.This makes intuitive sense since brokers have diversified into consulting and other services such as health and benefits.The topic of tariffs continues to evolve on a daily basis,so the prospects of an economic slowdown remain unclear.Nonetheless,if th

4、is situation remains unchanged and reported GDP numbers reflect the downward revision in expectations,we expect a negative impact on the P&C industrys top line.1.Macro-economic impacts1.Macro-economic impacts One of the hallmarks of the recently so-called“hard market”has been the number of head fake

5、s we have seen.The pricing trajectorys resilience has surprised both us and other industry observers.The table illustrates this confusion.While Chubb and Travelers data show a sequential slowdown in pricing,Selective and WR Berkleys data show an uptick reflective of business mix.Broadly,no-one expec

6、ts pricing to accelerate from here as competition continues to pick up in both the admitted and non-admitted markets.The question now becomes how quickly rates will ease,as well as if we will see any easing in casualty rate rises,which have been in a micro-cycle due to deteriorating loss trends.None