1、EMEA|MIDPOINT 2025From Caution to Strategic ConvictionEMEAMIDPOINT 2025 ECONOMIC&CRE OUTLOOKMidpoint 2025Chief Economist NoteTrade Tensions Set the ToneTrade policy is taking centre stage and is expected to shape the macro landscape through the second half of 2025.Since liberation day,there have bee

2、n tentative signs of de-escalation,but,more recently,the doubling of U.S.tariffs on steelfrom 25%to 50%has reignited tensions and served as a fresh reminder that the trade situation remains fluid.That said,our base case assumes that the trade war has likely passed its peak.We expect a gradual easing

3、 of tariffs as negotiations progress,evidenced by the recent U.S.-UK agreement and the 90-day pause on certain tariffs with the EU.These are encouraging signs that,directionally,we are moving toward de-escalation.Even so,we do not expect tariffs to return to pre-disruption levels over the forecast h

4、orizon.In the near term,higher trade frictions will continue to shape the macroeconomic narrativeand by extension,will have implications for business investment decisions,consumer spending patterns,supply chain strategies,and select corners of commercial real estate.Economy&CRE Holding UpThe Europea

5、n property market entered 2025 on relatively solid footing,supported by resilient occupier demand and early signs that investment activity is picking up.Although prolonged uncertainty poses downside risks,we generally expect the momentum that was forming coming into this year will continue.Sectors l

6、inked to global trade,like logistics,may face some caution in the near term given the trade environment,but the underlying fundamentals remain strong.Office demand continues to focus on high-quality,flexible space,with leasing decisions tied closely to overall business confidence.Residential markets