钢铁：能源转型的支柱.pdf

1、CLASSIFICATION C0-PUBLICSteel:The Backbone ofthe Energy TransitionSteel:The Backbone of the Energy Transition The Role of Steel in Modern Infrastructure ProjectsDr Daniel CarvalhoDirector,Metals&Mining CLow carbon electrification remains a significant engine for demand,requiring 14-20%of total steel

2、 for EV and ETGlobal energy-related CO emissions,BtSteel remains critical for building the infrastructure needed to support the Energy Transition0510152025303540200020102020203020402050Carbon Dioxide Emissions(Bt)Base case Pledges scenario Net zero scenario1.5C2.5CWood Mackenzie|17th Arab Steel Summ

3、it|October 2024Source:Wood Mackenzie2,1142,0292050Net Zero20%2050Pledges17%2050Base Case14%20231,8922,2237%+7%+12%+17%Crude Steel Production(Mt)2.0CEV/ET(Mt)Wood Mackenzie|17th Arab Steel Summit|October 20243Power and renewables account for 40%,upstream decline 3x by 2050,and green steel will entail

4、 US$1.5 trillion Energy Transition will require US$52-73 trillion in investments,a major boost for steel.Source:Wood MackenzieCAPEX for Different Energy Transition Scenarios(US$trillion)$19.1$25.8$29.5$13.9$8.2$13.7$17.9$28.4$7.2$3.1$2.5Base Case(ETO)$5.4$3.0Pledges Scenario$5.3$3.2Net Zero Scenario

5、(AET 1.5)$52.3$60.1$73.5+40%Power and RenewablesUpstream Oil&GasPower Grid and EV Infra.Hydrogen and CCUSMining&Metals4Wood Mackenzie|17th Arab Steel Summit|October 2024Steel demand for infrastructure:Chinas slowdown and underdeveloped infrastructure in India and Southeast Asia create room for expan

6、sion,and EU and US policy-driven growth to support Energy TransitionGlobal CSP(in Mt)India and SE Asia offset Chinas CSP decline,infrastructure is the main driver54%7%3%9%7%6%4%10%202335%20%7%7%9%6%5%12%20501,8922,223ROWMENAN.AmericaEUJKTS.E.AsiaIndiaChina2020321ConstrOthers20502020268ConstrOthers20