1、EY Economic Analysis TeamEuropean Economic OutlookWhat will the tariffs bring?May 2025Marek Rozkrut EY Chief Economist&Head of EY EMEIA Economists UnitTopicsTopics2Economic impact of trade tariffsEconomic activity in recent quarters Economic outlook Key risk factors:A focus on tariffsCountry-specifi

2、c outlooks Summary of projectionsPage72443535670U.S.tariffs cast a shadow over the European economy,but their current impact is limited.The EU is U.S.tariffs cast a shadow over the European economy,but their current impact is limited.The EU is experiencing modest growth,with Poland and Spain leading

3、 the way*,while Germany lags behind.experiencing modest growth,with Poland and Spain leading the way*,while Germany lags behind.3Economic impact of trade tariffs:Economic impact of trade tariffs:A key theme in recent months for both the European and global economies has been the U.S.governments shif

4、t in trade policy.A key theme in recent months for both the European and global economies has been the U.S.governments shift in trade policy.The U.S.administration has applied a tariff to most goods from all countries,alongside additional tariffs on imports from Canada,Mexico,as well as on steel,alu

5、minum,and motor vehicles.Although retaliation from other nations has been limited,these rapid fluctuations in tariff rates have resulted in the highest effective tariff levels since World War II,significantly increasing economic uncertainty.The impact of these tariffs on trade relationships is compl

6、ex.While uniform tariff rates apply to most countries,effective The impact of these tariffs on trade relationships is complex.While uniform tariff rates apply to most countries,effective ratrates vary considerably due to sectoral es vary considerably due to sectoral exemptions and differences in exp