宏观经济前景及其对宠物食品公司和宠物主人的意义.pdf

1、Tails in a Time of Headwinds:The Consumer Outlook&PetsErnie TedeschiDirector of EconomicsThe Budget Lab at Yaleernest.tedeschiyale.eduApril 29,20252Hello from Duffy and Minato!3Roadmap1.The 2025 outlook2.What does it mean for pet food?4What we thought going into 2025.Source:IMF World Economic Outloo

2、k October 2024.5The economy going into 2025 was solid Source:Bureau of Labor Statistics.6though inflation and real income had not yet fully renormalized yet.Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Census.7How the 2025 outlook has changed so far this year.Source:IMF,Justin Wolfers via X.8Sentiment is down

3、 and inflation expectations are upSource:UMich.9while opinions of government economic policy have plummeted.Source:UMich.10Q1 GDP will likely be weak,driven by a collapse in durables spending.Source:Atlanta Fed,Bureau of Economic Analysis.11The Budget Labhttps:/budgetlab.yale.edu12The current state

4、of US tariffs and foreign retaliation.Source:The Budget Lab.13Current US tariffs in historical context.Source:The Budget Lab.14Economic effects of US tariffs.Source:The Budget Lab.15Distributional effects of US tariffs.Source:The Budget Lab.16Tariff effects on US real GDP.Source:The Budget Lab.17Tar

5、iff effect on long-run global real GDP Source:The Budget Lab.18US tariffs will primarily affect clothing&apparel prices.Source:The Budget Lab.19US Policy Uncertainty IndexSource:Haver.20Real pet spending has been steadily rising.Source:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Census Bureau,authors analysis.0.00.

6、10.20.30.40.50.6US Non-Veterinary Pet Spending as a%of IncomeNominal spending as a percent of disposable income$0$100$200$300$400$500$600$700$800$900$1,000Inflation-Adjusted US Non-Veterinary Pet Spending per HouseholdConstant 2024$per household(seasonally-adjusted annualized)RECESSIONS21Pet food is