限电与电力购买协议.pdf

1、Grid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisCurtailment&PPAsCurtailment&PPAsGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisWhat is Curtailment?Curtailment Risk Energy Yield PPA Price&Risk allocation Relatable?Spoiler Alert!Grid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisWhy is curtailment a thing?Grid Connection&Curtailment Analy

2、sisWhy is curtailment a thing?Why are the projections so wrong?Grid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisImpactGenerators Revenue Financial ViabilityOfftakers Energy Shortfall Increased Procurement CostsInvestors Reduced Shareholder ReturnsGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisIts about to get more complexR

3、isk of project losing positionProject wont connect in next 5 or 10 yearsGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisHow on earth do we model for this?Financial ViabilityFinancial ForecastsPPA PricingRisk AllocationCurtailment AnalysisGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisPower flow analysisGrid Connection&Cur

4、tailment AnalysisMultiple Future ScenariosNormal ConditionsOutage ConditionsQueue Position5101551015Hours Curtailed8378391197162016221986%Availability90.4590.4286.3481.5181.4877.33Total curtailment MWh11,742.3411,797.4439,750.7849,704.6149,712.1758,380.84Max curtailment MW21.5921.4340.0040.0040.0040

5、.00Adjusted yield MWh65,12865,07337,12027,16627,15818,490%Curtailment15.2715.3451.7164.6664.6775.94Grid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisChanges in future demand and supplyFigure 1.Proportion of Generator Connections by Technology(GSP&BSP)Grid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisRemediesOutage Scenario-i:Loss of transformer at Azkaban GSPGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisInput into financial models and investor packsGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisGB wide coverage and beyond10 working days10 working daysGrid Connection&Curtailment AnalysisThank You!