【公司研究】三川智慧-NB~IoT智能水表提速战略布局稀土资源回收-20200217[21页].pdf

1、 / NB-IoT NB-IoT NB-IoT 2019201846% 52%201965% 2019100 NB-IoT2015 NB-IoT1400 40%2019 201914.45 /20% 3.6420201 4.87 33.8% 20192021CAGR 27% CAGR 48.5%NB-IoT 20192021EPS0.180.250.31PE 27.7220.3616.43“” 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 610 687 866 1,152 1,408 (+/-)% -12.19% 12.59% 25.95% 33.09% 22.26% 79 9

2、8 190 259 320 (+/-)% -40.79% 23.65% 94.13% 36.17% 23.89% 0.08 0.09 0.18 0.25 0.31 59.83 35.31 27.72 20.36 16.43 3.11 2.16 3.02 2.57 2.22 (%) 5.20% 6.12% 10.91% 12.64% 13.54% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040 1,040 2020/2/14 6 6.21 5.06 12 3.926.50 5,263 1,040 A 1,040 B/H 0

3、/0 36 -13% -4% 5% 14% 23% 32% 2019/22019/52019/82019/11 % 1M 3M 12M -6% 20% 34% -1% 18% 17% (603700)NB-IoT 20200204 (603700) 20200114 (300259) 20191223 (300259) 20191028 S0550518010001 010-58034574 300066 / 2020-02-17 2 / 21 1. . 3 1.1. . 3 1.2. . 3 1.2.1. . 3 1.2.2. . 5 2. NB-IoT . 6 2.1. . 6 2.2.

4、. 7 2.3. . 7 2.4. ROE . 8 2.5. . 8 2.6. . 9 3. . 10 3.1. . 10 3.2. .11 3.2.1.40%. 11 3.2.2. . 12 4. . 13 4.1. NB-IoT . 13 4.2. NB-IoT . 15 5. . 17 6. . 18 6.1. . 18 6.2. . 18 3 / 21 1. 1.1. 2003 1971 40.87%0.45% 17.14%16.87% 0.62%7.51% 1(2019Q3) Wind 1.2. 1.2.1. DMA 2007 -GBT 778.1/2/3-2007 4 / 21 1

5、 NB-IoTH4000PH5000 IC WS 2 (NB-IoT) B/S6 GPS IC M-BUS IC + + WS LoRaNB-IoTNB-IoT NB-IoTLTE20dB 10010km+DRX()PSM 5 / 21 105GSMANB-IoT7 21NB-IoT DMA 2NB-IoT NB-IoT 1.2.2. “+” DMA DMA 3 6 / 21 2. NB-IoT 2.1. 2017201920186.87 12.59%20195.8517.89% 201845.72% 26.18%13.16%3.23%1.81% 201643.41%201845.72%201

6、9 51.7% 42015-2019 52016-2018 2017-20192017 20187909.36 9780.20201911877.54 201843.14%20192018 85%115%1.802.10 7 / 21 62015-2019 2.2. 2017-2019 20196.53%10.44%6.53%2019 0.610.270.38 201934.97% 72015-2019 82015-2019 2.3. 2017-20192019 15.27%20185.67 2018 40.74%25.34%28.20%2017 39.73%79.95% 8 / 21 920