1、 October 2024 December 2021 OIES PAPER:NG 195 OIES PAPER:ET06 Mike Fulwood,Senior Research Fellow,OIES What Drives International Gas Prices in Competitive Markets?Four Fallacies and a Hypothesis The contents of this paper are the authors sole responsibility.They do not necessarily represent the view

2、s of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members.i The contents of this paper are the authors sole responsibility.They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its members.Copyright 2024 Oxford Institute for Energy Studies(Register

3、ed Charity,No.286084)This publication may be reproduced in part for educational or non-profit purposes without special permission from the copyright holder,provided acknowledgment of the source is made.No use of this publication may be made for resale or for any other commercial purpose whatsoever w

4、ithout prior permission in writing from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies.ISBN 978-1-78467-256-0 The contents of this paper are the authors sole responsibility.They do not necessarily represent the views of the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies or any of its Members.ii Key Points The market

5、for internationally traded gas has now globalized,assisted by the advent of US LNG from the Lower-48.The volume of flexible LNG has increased sharply since 2016 and was instrumental in the diversion of LNG cargoes to Europe,following the loss of Russian pipeline gas in 2022.The pricing of LNG has al

6、so changed significantly since 2016,with the traditional oil-indexed long-term contracts now accounting for marginally over half of all LNG trade in 2023,as spot and hub pricing has risen sharply.In a globalized market,the gas price drivers are increasingly complex and simplistic analysis fails to a