机器学习在长期配电中断预测中的应用.pdf

1、ML for Long-Term Distribution Outage ForecastingEPRI AI/DX Electric Power S Private&Confidential2Agenda-About Rhizome&Resilience Planning-Objectives with Seattle City Light-Extreme Weather Projections-Outage Impacts and Projections-Integration with System PlanningPrivate&C Private&C Private&Confiden

2、tialRhizome is a software company developing tools that help utilities improve resilience to extreme weatherAssessVulnerabilities and climate risks on a digital twin of T&D assetsOptimizePlan infinite scenarios to optimize risk reduction and social parametersIntegrateWith existing tools to embed cli

3、mate intelligence into everyday operations Private&ConfidentialWe service a gap in technology to dramatically enhance reliability and resilience planning 4Asset Management Capital&Investment PlanningReliability&Resilience PlanningManage maintenance and work ordersTrack asset healthAssess forward-loo

4、king blue sky and extreme weather asset risksQuantify benefits of investmentsOptimize asset plans across departmental goalsConsiders variables beyond reliability/resiliencePlanning WorkflowField opsAsset managementEngineeringAsset planningRegulatoryAsset planningFinancial planningUsersPrivate&Confid

5、entialWe provide 4 main 5Focus TodayOutages x Extreme Weather AnalyticsTop-Down Climate Resilience ModelsAsset Fragility ModelsReliability Models Historical outage analysisImpact of extreme weatherNear-term projected reliabilityFailure rate of asset types given weather conditionsLonger-term outage f

6、orecasts,given feeder traits and extreme weather trendsPreviewPrivate&ConfidentialEPRI Climate READi Distribution Planning F 6Source:EPRI Climate READi Joint Workstream 2-3 Technical Advisor and Affinity Group Meeting-June 2024Private&Confidential1.Climate Risk Analysis:Quantify historical extreme w