1、The great balancing actGlobal Economic Outlook 2024-2026Allianz Research04Steady(not stellar)global growth ahead10Corporates in cyclical sectors to make a comeback in 202517Capital markets outlook:Getting ready for the mid-to-late cycle 30 September 20242 Steady(not stellar)global growth ahead at+2.

2、8%until 2026,in line with the long-term average.The US economy is slowing but will remain the main support to the global economy in 2024.Momentum is gradually building in Europe,though Germany will remain the exception,with the economy only exiting recession by the end of 2024.Domestic demand contin

3、ues to slow in China as policy easing can only partly compensate for the headwinds brought on by the continued real estate crisis.Recession risks in the US are rising but the economy is still within the range of a soft landing.Strong household and corporate finances,a rising trend in manufacturing i

4、nvestment and the technology sector support this view.However,US consumption is expected to slow further next year,in line with the slowdown of earnings growth.In Europe,leading indicators still show recession risks but are improving from low levels.Its austerity time(again).The fiscal consolidation

5、 ahead will be the big elephant in the room as it will represent a drag on GDP growth of around-0.3pp on average until 2027 in both the US and Europe.Tax hikes,mainly on corporates,are more likely than spending cuts.In addition,quantitative tightening(QT)will transfer more than 3pps of debt/GDP per

6、year to investors in Europe.Inflation should reach the 2%target in H1 2025,allowing for a strong(er)easing cycle ahead.Inflation surprised on the downside during the summer and we expect sticky services inflation to soften slowly,driven by decelerating wages,while energy and goods will continue to d