1、Swing stateThemes and opportunities 2025Themes and opportunities 20252Foreword Since 2020,a series of significant shocks to the global economy the Covid-19 pandemic,escalation of the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East,resultant inflation,and the vertical adoption curve of generative AI that ha

2、s driven US exceptionalism have dominated investor focus.The knock-on effects of this series of events continue to reshape our world and have challenged conventional portfolio thinking,in particular the benefits of diversification.These impacts warrant in-depth analysis and consideration as the slow

3、er-burning repercussions are felt across portfolios.Equally,as the acute and reactive phase of these events ends,we believe it is time for investors to lengthen their perspective to consider other longer-term risks and opportunities.The theme of this years report,“Swing state”,reflects look-forward

4、views from an investment environment characterized by several potential swing dynamics:Market concentration levels have swung to a secular high.Rates have begun a downswing as inflation appears to have been brought under control.Government debt burdens in developed economies are at strained levels.A

5、 new administration in the White House,won on a pledge of tax cuts,raises questions about whether debt will continue to swing higher.Emissions continue to rise despite progress in cleaner technologies,due in part to increased energy demand.While some of these swing dynamics remain in full flow,it is

6、 prudent to consider common-sense laws of financial gravity what swings up must eventually swing down.The tiger or miracle sector in any time period eventually rotates into another,inflation responses eventually work(and have largely already done so),and serious environmental problems are eventually