1、lnstitute for Fiscal Studies abrdn Financial Fairness Trust Nuffield Foundation Economic and Social Research Council IFS Report R340Benjamin NabarroUK economic outlook:navigating the endgameThe IFS Green Budget:October 2024 The Institute for Fiscal Studies,October 2024 1 1.UK economic outlook:naviga

2、ting the endgameBenjamin Nabarro(Citi)Key findings 1.The UKs economic performance over the past two decades is hard to describeas anything other than a policy failure.Productivity growth has been dire with per-worker growth over the past decade the weakest on average since at least 1850.Theinnovativ

3、e engine behind the UK economy seems to have stalled.In 2014,a littleunder 6%of all firms in the UK(14,000)were high-growth firms employing at least10 people and growing their headcount by more than 20%per annum for three yearsrunning.This has fallen to just under 4%now.Macroeconomic resilience also

4、 seems tohave suffered as low growth,low investment and weak income growth have all fedback into one another.2.The growing global challenges surrounding ecological and geopoliticaltransition should add to a sense of urgency.These imply further economicheadwinds to growth in the years ahead,alongside

5、 heightened volatility.More physicalinvestment will be required to ameliorate these effects.But this does not constitute astrategy for addressing the UKs existing growth shortfall.High debt levels,astructural external financing gap and elevated rates volatility mean the stock ofoutstanding debt is a

6、 growing vulnerability.In this sense,the UK likely finds itself ina worse position than the US or the Euro Area.3.The UK needs to lift growth despite these growing challenges,in the context of limitedpolicy space.Here we think the focus should be on boosting intangible and ICTinvestment,alongside br