大清算：大选后的经济会是什么样子？.pdf

1、Bernard BaumohlChief Global EconomistThe Economic Outlook Group,LLC475 Wall Street,Princeton,NJ 08540(609)529-1300www.EconomicOutlookGThe Great Reckoning:What Will The Post-Election Economy Look Like?October 8,2024PCE Inflation PeakJune 2022=7.1%Federal Reserve 2.0%inflation target PCE InflationAugu

2、st 2024=2.2%CPI Peak June 2022=9.0%CPI August 2024=2.5%Inflation should reach the Feds 2.0%target before the end of this yearSources:Bureau of Economic Analysis,Bureau of Labor Statistics via FREDPersonal Consumption Expenditures(PCE):Chain-type Price Index%Change from 12 months agoCPI inflation%Cha

3、nge from 12 months agoThe Economic Outlook GroupLets call it right:EVERY NATION experienced a temporary surge of inflation following the Covid-19 pandemicThe Economic Outlook GroupSources:World Bank;IMF,National statistical agenciesThe Federal Reserve achieved something rare in history!They boosted

4、interest rates to cool inflation without causing a recession and much joblessness.The Economic Outlook GroupSource:Bureau of Labor Statistics Unemployment rate,monthlyUnemployment ratesApril 3.9%May 4.0%June.4.1%July 4.3%Aug.4.2%Sept.4.1%(Actually Sept.4.051%)Fed funds target,upper limit10 yr.Treasu

5、ry yieldFed funds=5.25%-5.50%Current=4.75%-5.00%Federal Reserve to cut interest rates another 50 bps by end of 2024,to range of 4.25%-4.50%After that,the path of rates will depend on future tax,tariff and immigration policies.Current=3.75%The Economic Outlook GroupSource:FREDEnd of 2Q 2024RECORD tot

6、al US household debt=$17.76 TrillionRECORD credit card debt held by consumers=$1.14 Trillion(70%)(2%)(9%)(6%)(9%)(3%)The Economic Outlook GroupSource:Federal Reserve Bank of New York Total US Household Debt and its Composition 21.51%March 2022:Federal Reserve begins to raise ratesInterest rates on B