需求失衡、全球通货膨胀和货币政策协调.pdf

1、Demand Imbalances,Global Inflation andMonetary Policy CoordinationJavier Bianchi1Louphou Coulibaly1,2IMFER Conference on The Future of Macroeconomic PolicyJune 20231Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis2University of Wisconsin-Madison and NBERThe views expressed herein are those of the authors and not

2、 necessarily thoseof the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis,the Federal Reserve System.Motivation(a)Core inflation(b)Policy ratesSource of core inflation:IMF World Economic Outlook 2022.The band indicates 25-75 percentile change for eachmonth.Group represents 89.4%of GDP of advanced economies,75%of

3、 emerging and developing economies and81%of world GDP based on purchasing power parity.Policy rates correspond to discount rates from BIS.2Motivation(ctd)Central banks nearly everywhere feel accused of beingon the back foot.The present danger,however,is.thatthey collectively go too far and drive the

4、 world economyinto an unnecessarily harsh contraction.By simultaneouslyall going in the same direction,they risk reinforcing eachothers policy impacts without taking that feedback loopinto account.Maurice Obstfeld,Peterson Institute blog post,09/12/2022“Uncoordinated monetary policies risk a histori

5、c global slowdown”3Over-tightening or Under-tightening?Does cooperation call for lower rates relative to Nash equilibrium?What are the gains from monetary policy cooperation?Focus of the literature:terms-of-trade externalityObstfeld-Rogoff 1995;Corsetti-Dedola-Leduc 2010 Policy discussions:output an

6、d inflation stabilization Today:financial channel of monetary policy spillovers(R)Bianchi-Coulibaly 2020;Fornaro-Romei 20224Over-tightening or Under-tightening?Does cooperation call for lower rates relative to Nash equilibrium?What are the gains from monetary policy cooperation?Focus of the literatu