议会预算监督机构（PBO）：2021年保险业务财政稳定性评估报告（英文版）（23页）.pdf

1、November 25, 2021ASSESSING THE INSURANCEPROPERTIES OF THE FISCALSTABILIZATION PROGRAMPowered by TCPDF (www.tcpdf.org) The Parliamentary Budget Officer (PBO) supports Parliament by providing economic and financial analysis for the purposes of raising the quality of parliamentary debate and promoting

2、greater budget transparency and accountability. This report assesses the insurance properties of the Fiscal Stabilization Program, its recent changes and proposed modifications. Lead Analysts: Sarah MacPhee, Analyst Louis Perrault, Advisor-Analyst This report was prepared under the direction of: Chr

3、is Matier, Director General Nancy Beauchamp, Marie-Eve Hamel Laberge and Rmy Vanherweghem assisted with the preparation of the report for publication. For further information, please contact pbo-dpbparl.gc.ca. Yves Giroux Parliamentary Budget Officer RP-2122-019-S_e Office of the Parliamentary Budge

4、t Officer, Ottawa, Canada, 2021 Table of Contents Summary 1 1. Introduction 3 2. Overview of the FSP 4 3. Stochastic FSP model 7 4. Results 11 4.1. Current program results 11 4.2. Increasing the per capita limit from $60 13 4.3. September 2020 Premiers FSP proposal 15 Notes 19 Assessing the Insuranc

5、e Properties of the Fiscal Stabilization Program 1 Summary The Fiscal Stabilization Program (FSP) was created in 1967 by the federal government to help insure provincial governments against extraordinary year-over-year revenue losses. As with any insurance program, adjustments, deductibles, and limi

6、ts were placed on the program over the past 50 years. This report assesses the insurance properties of the current program, its recent changes and proposed modifications using a stochastic simulation model. Our model generates thousands of realizations of provincial revenues and applies the FSP form