摩根大通（J.P. Morgan）：2021全球宏观策略之全球宏观数据观察（英文版）（97页）.pdf

1、Economic ResearchJuly 30, 2021Global Data Watch Constructive news this week on Delta and growth trims downside risks Fed, ECB, and BoE looking at inflation and Delta spikes as transitory Regulatory changes in China add new headwind to regional outlook Next week: PMIs dip, US payrolls (900k), BoE/RBA

2、 hold, BCB (+100bp)The centre can holdOur baseline forecast for strong global growth to further gather steam in 2H21 has remained unchanged in recent months. While data through last quarter have posed some challenges to this outlook, and the Delta variant has become a more material threat, downgrade

3、s to growth on net have been modest. We still expect global GDP to boom 5.7%ar in 2H21a 1.5%-pt rise from the already robust pace in 1H21. This confidence was rattled somewhat in recent weeks as the Delta variant looked set to soar across the US, Europe, and Asia. At the same time, the strength of o

4、ur call was somewhat prospective in that we expectedwithout much data to go onthat the rotation to services-sector-led growth began last quarter and that a material inventory drawdown was holding back the goods sector. If our outlook proves right, Delta headwinds will be more than offset by continue

5、d growth in the services sector and a bounce back in goods production as supply bottlenecks fade alongside resilient final demand. While the risks to this view looked to be skewing to the downside through last week, this weeks news trims those concerns somerenewing confidence that the “centre canhol

6、d.” The Delta variant still represents the most immediate threat to the outlook. In recognition, last week we nudged down the EMU outlook for 2H by 2%-pt ar (while raising 1Q22 by 4%-pt ar to reflect a merely delayed rebound). Our concern has been that, even with a considerably higher share of vacci