花旗银行（CITI）：2021中国非盈利性恐慌财富投资策略报告（英文版）（12页）.pdf

1、 INVESTMENT PRODUCTS: NOT FDIC INSURED NOT CDIC INSURED NOT GOVERNMENT INSURED NO BANK GUARANTEE MAY LOSE VALUE July 28, 2021 Citi Global Wealth Investments Asia Strategy Bulletin China: The Non-Profit Tantrum The State Council guidelines to turn the after school tutoring business into non-profit tr

2、iggered a precipitous selloff in Chinese equities wherever theyre listed. Investors looked for whos next and worried whether China may be taking a left turn too big to own. We believe that regulatory risks remain, such as for property and healthcare, but are likely much less severe than for educatio

3、n. These are much bigger parts of Chinas economy, and are too expensive for the government to foot the bill. There is also evidence that China plans to continue to push forward market oriented development, as Premier Li Keqiang and Vice Premier Liu He both highlighted in recent days. Abandoning capi

4、talism is also inconsistent with stability at this point. Ultimately, the purpose of all the regulations is sustainability. The measures are likely to support longer term development of consumer and middle class growth by curbing the cost of basic life needs. It would also solidify control of the ce

5、ntral leadership. There are historical parallels. During the 13th Five Year Plan (2015-19), a lot of steel capacity was destroyed in very blunt ways, causing business owners substantial losses. But profitability followed. There were also retail price reform, manufacturing privatization, local govern

6、ment funding for infrastructure, housing privatization, etc. These were cases of major policy changes that created booms and regulation brought busts, followed by more sustainable development. The initial selloff is fueled by margin deleveraging and fund redemptions, which is likely to be short live