【公司研究】东方日升-组件渠道优势显著异质结领先布局-20200309[29页].pdf

1、 / 2019 5.2GW148%2019 20196 9.1GW2GW3GW210 2020202014GW 2.5GW20198 2020 2 EVA 2019EPC403MW 720MW EVAEVA 2020-2021EPS1.23 1.47 2017A 2018A 2019E 2020E 2021E 11,452 9,752 14,412 21,110 24,662 (+/-)% 63.21% -14.84% 47.78% 46.48% 16.83% 650 232 980 1,107 1,325 (+/-)% -5.67% -64.24% 321.85% 12.94% 19.65%

2、 0.72 0.26 1.09 1.23 1.47 16.83 22.07 13.45 11.91 9.96 1.46 0.69 1.56 1.38 1.21 (%) 8.69% 3.13% 11.59% 11.57% 12.16% (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% () 905 904 901 901 901 2020/3/6 6 24.00 14.63 12 9.1518.09 14,323 901 A 901 B/H 0/0 26 -7% 10% 27% 44% 61% 2019/32019/62019/92019/12 % 1M 3M 12M 8% 3

3、2% 57% 2% 26% 49% 300118 -20200215 10-20200215 -20200202 S0550516050002 (021)20361230 S0550517100002 (021)20361163 300118 / 2020-03-09 2 / 29 1. . 3 1.1. .3 1.2. 2019.3 2. . 5 2.1. .5 2.2. .8 2.3. .9 3. . 10 3.1. .10 3.2. .12 4. . 14 4.1. HIT .14 4.2. HIT .15 4.3. HIT .18 5. EVA . 24 6. . 25 7. . 26

4、 3 / 29 1. 1.1. 2002 2006 EVA 201929.19% 1.2. 2019 2019144.12 48%20199.80322% 20192.3 7.5170%2019 1 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 160.00 201420152016201720182019 Wind 4 / 29 2 -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 400% 450% 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.

5、00 8.00 10.00 12.00 201420152016201720182019 Wind 60%2019 48.0279% EPC 2019EPC2.593.32 EVA2019 4.6415.59% 1-2 3 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 80.00 100.00 120.00 140.00 20152016201720182019-1H EVA Wind 5 / 29 4 0.00 10.00 20.00 30.00 40.00 50.00 60.00 70.00 80.00 20152016201720182019-1H EVA Wind 2. 2.1. 20

6、18108GW9% 2019120GW 2019 5 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E2020E2021E GW BNEF 6 / 29 62018GW 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 20172018 SolarPower Europe 28201916.7GW104% 202020%2030 35%2020 7 SolarPower Europe 7 / 29 82018 0 0.5 1 1.5