联美控股-砥砺前行现金为王-20200725[56页].pdf

1、桿600167 2020725 S1220520060002 1ROE 2015-2019 11.23/11.33/14.382019ROE23%2020Q1 38.3 2滮 滮201720212021198.565% 2620213,35520196,5808,475 滮1.5滮 3 200820182.9911CAGR46.17%2018 20.5417.24%201015.42滮 20253.819.232025 73.07 4 20203乫 20202021202218.48/21.31/24.63PE17/15/13, 衰 rQqPrRoRqPoMxPoRtPqPoNbRaO9PmO

2、nNoMpPfQrRoRjMoMsNaQpPyRwMsRmOwMmPrO 4 飺A+ ROE 棬16 25 + 裬35 塢40 46 53 2005 20196,5808,475滮 1.5 2018723100% + 飺A 1999128 600167 20205 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18 Oct-18 Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20 Apr-20 Jul-20 201668 100% 2017512 38.7 豸 2018117

3、 23 100% 202043 66% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 200111 100% 2005412 5,510 29% 2008226 46.97% 1 棬 2 棬2020515 53.10% 档 70.14% 棬 197120032005 20162017 2004 20045200611 20049 2003 2003 2005 2005 2015 2015 2016 2016 2015 2017 2017 3 Wind + 2016 100% 24500 80% CAGR45.50%CAGR73.26% 2015-20197.5833.96CAGR45.50%1.

4、7715.92 CAGR73.26% 2015-201760%2018 2018-201955% 42015-2019 52015-2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) (%) Wind Wind 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 輰 輰漰 100% 2017-201980.23%/87.49%/88.33

5、% 78.88%/82.31%/77.35% 76 Wind Wind , 39.49% , 98.81% , 66.28% , 88.33% , 11.16% , 54.62% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 54.31% 61.61% 41.05% 55.41% 41.14% 37.69% 11.75% 27.68% 48.85% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2015-20192017/2018/2019 11.23/11.33/14.38 2015-

6、2019232%153% 2017-2019 9%8 Wind Wind -2,000 -1,500 -1,000 -500 0 500 1,000 1,500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015-2019201563.86%2019 35.45%28.41pct 2015-2019 2.013.220.500.550.851.13 10% Wind Wind 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00

7、4.50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) 11仯 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ROE 132019 ROE Wind Wind ROE2017/2018 /2019ROE19.24%/19.93%/23.29% 12ROE仯 15 20 25 30 35 40 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ROE 31.86 34.12 1.19 4% 476.0 543.7 42.9 7% 17.07 7.67 0.

8、11 2% 215.22 184.38 13.62 6% 359.6 1,166.0 18.7 3% 348.7 34.0 15.9 23% 267.2 388.4 22.9 8% 237.6 199.1 24.0 9% 221.8 84.9 13.3 9% 219.2 208.2 17.0 8% ROE Wind 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ROE 16.39 38.34 19.24 19.93 23.29 5.77 14.73 10.71 12.19 14.24 23.31 35.01 39.73 44.42 48.43 14 FY2019/FY2018 ROE 23

9、.29/19.93 14.24/12.19 1.69/1.68 96.77/97.61 0.29/0.27 48.43/44.42 56.78/49 85.30/90.64 棬 2010-2018CAGR9.16% 162018 漰 201887.812010-2018CAGR9.16%2018 38.142010-2018CAGR3.43% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 152010-2018仯 0 5,000

10、10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 糧 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 糧 17/ 18 19 20 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 糧 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 糧 21 2016/5/16 2016/6/21 2016/6/21 2017 2017/4/18 2017/5/16 2017/6/6 2017/8/4 2017/8/18 2017-2018 2017/9/6 2017/12/4 2017-201

11、8 2017/12/5 滮2017-2021 2017/12/5 巽 2018/1/19 2018/6/16 2018/6/27 2018/7/23 2018/10/26 2018/10/26 2019/1/1 2019/2/26 鱨 2019/2/27 2019 2019/3/31 2019 2019/4/10 2019/10/16 2019-2020 10 2020/6/22 2020 滮 22 232021 滮201720212021198.565% 2620213,355 1,166 2,396 3,355 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,5

12、00 4,000 2016 2019 2021 5 10 繩 5 10 21 5 5 1 0.5 0.5 2+26 22 11 1/ 11075 2 /556 3 1200 903 120 9 40 7 繩 繩 7 15 繩10 5 3 5 糧 2 80 110 30 198.5 90 磬 0.35% 1.65% 3.85% 9.79% 22.25% 24.93% 37.18% 24 2020 2016 2019 68%20162018 2019 2018123% 201919 26.7 25 飬 27 滮 乩 齭 26 20205 28 1200 500 2.2 1,500 1.5 70%

13、20162020 廯50%30% 29 棬棬 CCHP DES - - - CCHP) DES- + 30 * * 磺 31 棬 () 2019 2018 % 49 49 - 22,808 23,067 -1.12 4,444 4,618 -3.77 % 19.48 20.02 -2.70 4,655 4,708 -1.13 2019 2018 % 35 35 - 10,635 10,705 -0.65 3,278 3,280 -0.06 % 30.80 31.70 -2.84 3,038 2,953 2.88 2019 2018 % 30 30 - 21,772 20,056 8.56 2,

14、894 2,864 1.05 % 13.29 14.28 -6.93 8,642 6,685 29.27 332018-2019 5,600 6,200 6,580 7,360 8,100 8,475 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 9,000 2017 2018 2019 棬 32 2017-2019 342019() 1,136.39 848.53 1,003.95 612.35 441.07 626.26 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 棬 滮30 繩 30MW 2*75t/h 24-30 1

15、,000 70% 22.3 31.1. 23 35 棬 棬 2020滮3.57 60% 滮 裬裬 滮 36 棬 2020418,100 縣 縣49% 縣 滮豸 CCHP 37 棬 3A 24 仯 24 38 飬99% 39 棬 + 棬 2020 顣 7 2019 25 22 402019 棬 41 裬 43 200820182.9911CAGR46.17% 42 44 2008 201820.5417.24%201015.42 滮20253.819.23 202573.07 45 壬 İ 磺 罨 46 20198,0298,489 5,474 20208,200 裬 10 鹫 麣麣 46 24

16、7 Third- tier City GDP 塢 303 472018 壨 33 3,325 114 3,472 壨 412 2,438 20 2,870 LED壨飩 32 棬 482018 棬 棬 49 LED 2018/2019 1.5 1.89 2.34 1.59 1.92 0 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 2018 2019 2020 棬 50 20191231 28 / 5005,600 簢 濯 濯 淢紫 51 棬 İ 飻塢豸 廷 + 汻 棬 A 1.00 A 桢淶 / 巢 / 52 53 棬 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 213.99 217.45 221.9

17、2 223.80 % 4.53 1.62 2.06 0.85 23.87 26.09 26.63 26.86 % 11.16 12.00 12.00 12.00 369.90 536.36 766.99 1073.79 % 41.07 45.00 43.00 40.00 326.73 477.36 682.62 955.67 % 88.33 89.00 89.00 89.00 1881.19 2085.36 2397.36 2592.03 (%) 7.79 10.85 14.96 8.12 742.93 844.57 970.93 1049.77 (%) 39.49 40.50 40.50 4

18、0.50 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 436.05 545.06 675.87 824.57 % 16.34 25.00 24.00 22.00 289.00 365.19 452.84 552.46 % 66.28 67.00 67.00 67.00 474.69 522.16 574.38 620.33 % 15.85 10.00 10.00 8.00 469.05 515.96 567.56 612.96 % 98.81 98.81 98.81 98.81 -2.22 0.24 0.24 0.24 (%) -182.35 - 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.21 0.

19、21 0.21 (%) -34.88 87.50 87.50 87.50 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 0.80 0.80 0.80 0.80 % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.78 0.78 0.78 0.78 % 96.34 96.34 96.34 96.34 21.80 21.80 21.80 21.80 % 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.91 5.01 5.01 5.01 % 22.54 23.00 23.00 23.00 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 3396.21 3929.24 4659.38 5357.36 YOY 1

20、1.82 15.69 18.58 14.98 1591.54 1848.11 2131.14 2463.60 YOY 20.86 16.12 15.31 15.60 EPS 0.70 0.81 0.93 1.08 PE 19.94 16.89 14.64 12.67 EPSPEWind EPS 20E 21E 22E 20E 21E 22E 603568.SH 25.18 192.95 1.38 1.69 1.95 18.28 14.91 12.94 002034.SZ 10.02 74.34 0.61 0.92 1.16 16.37 10.68 8.40 002479.SZ 6.88 61.

21、16 0.44 0.49 - 15.64 14.04 - 600578.SH 3.19 215.22 0.26 0.26 0.30 12.26 10.71 10.52 15.64 12.59 10.62 600167.SH 13.64 312.10 0.81 0.93 1.08 16.89 14.64 12.67 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 3396.21 3929.24 4659.38 5357.36 1541.16 1694.06 1952.80 2153.64 23.40 27.07 32.10 36.91 61.08 58.94 83.40 95.90 134.51

22、117.88 163.08 198.22 -161.81 -177.22 -237.62 -238.13 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 27.06 0.00 0.00 0.00 12.66 12.66 12.66 12.66 2077.92 2424.00 2838.94 3282.50 17.31 17.31 17.31 17.31 0.68 0.00 0.68 0.68 2094.55 2439.50 2841.63 3285.41 449.81 519.35 651.60 753.46 1644.74 1920.15 2190.03 2531.96 53.20 72.05 58

23、.89 68.35 1591.54 1848.11 2131.14 2463.60 EBITDA 1938.09 2379.26 2790.85 3252.62 EPS() 0.70 0.81 0.93 1.08 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 0.12 0.16 0.19 0.15 0.23 0.17 0.17 0.16 0.21 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.55 0.57 0.58 0.60 0.47 0.47 0.46 0.46 ROE 0.21 0.20 0.18 0.18 ROIC 0.79 2.02 5.83 -49.55 0.35 0.32 0.30 0.27

24、 0.05 0.01 0.01 0.01 2.70 3.29 3.68 4.17 2.60 3.23 3.62 4.10 0.29 0.30 0.30 0.29 7.49 8.38 9.65 9.28 7.10 7.55 7.73 7.99 () 0.70 0.81 0.93 1.08 0.63 1.25 1.24 1.33 3.30 4.11 5.04 6.12 P/E 19.94 16.89 14.64 12.67 P/B 4.20 3.32 2.70 2.23 EV/EBITDA 13.96 10.00 7.58 5.61 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 6689.49 9

25、085.84 11938.95 15046.47 5070.03 7508.47 10161.20 13051.33 505.66 432.09 533.67 620.84 388.48 410.02 430.21 515.32 84.80 91.62 107.73 117.98 259.24 179.25 218.46 245.45 381.28 464.38 487.66 495.56 5412.09 5224.07 5049.22 4845.28 1529.60 1542.26 1554.91 1567.57 3347.72 3167.46 2974.80 2753.68 358.79

26、338.36 343.53 348.05 175.98 175.98 175.98 175.98 12101.57 14309.90 16988.17 19891.75 2473.87 2757.54 3214.05 3607.70 293.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 473.55 567.74 638.10 702.39 1707.32 2189.80 2602.95 2905.32 1815.62 1820.13 1824.86 1829.83 90.14 94.64 99.38 104.35 1725.49 1725.49 1725.49 1725.49 4289.50 4577

27、.67 5065.91 5437.54 249.85 321.90 380.79 449.14 2288.12 2288.12 2288.12 2288.12 697.19 697.19 697.19 697.19 4440.92 6289.03 8420.17 10883.78 7562.15 9410.26 11541.40 14005.00 12101.50 14309.84 16988.10 19891.68 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 1438.42 2870.17 2826.00 3051.17 1644.74 1920.15 2190.03 2531.96 32

28、5.83 347.98 362.85 379.93 18.15 11.45 5.34 5.60 -12.66 -12.66 -12.66 -12.66 -530.57 618.77 283.13 149.25 -7.07 -15.50 -2.69 -2.91 -721.41 -131.80 -172.67 -160.41 -344.13 -131.80 -172.67 -160.41 -391.12 0.00 0.00 0.00 13.85 0.00 0.00 0.00 132.35 -299.95 -0.60 -0.63 0.00 -293.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 4.51 4.73 4.97 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -7.55 -9.99 -11.17 132.33 -3.90 4.65 5.57 849.36 2438.45 2652.73 2890.12 1 20196,5808,475 2 3 4 2020 5鷴 鷴 36 漰 飬 汣 棬 20% 10% -10%10% 10% 300 300 300 THANKS 486 33 1831 潭3637