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前沿科技行业年度展望系列报告5:2020全球5G和新基建产业展望-20200725[183页].pdf

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前沿科技行业年度展望系列报告5:2020全球5G和新基建产业展望-20200725[183页].pdf

1、5 20205G 2020725 1 4G5G4G 201938EB 10.5EB2014-2019CAGR64%116%BATJN CAGR18%37%32%豸 2014138/GB20196 /GB95%O2O 豸 5G60%2C 2B &4G 飬5G棬2022-2023 5GR162B5GeMBB uRLLCmMTC7R16 uRLLCC-V2X2B 1&5G 棬L1/L2202348%L3 棬C-V2X R16 2022 1,6295302019-2022CAGR21%30%25G AR/VR2020 6,9642017-2020CAGR14%R16 1 2 5G5GAIoT 5G20

2、19Q34000-5500 150065G1,75160% 5G6,36040%5G 仯+ 档棬Statista20172020 1,1102,480202515,670CAGR39% NB-IOTCat12G3G 5G5G2020NB- IOTCat15G20%3%1%202540%13% 9%AIoT档 5G5G豸罨跽棬2020 3402020CAPEX 3,34811% 5G1,803338%2022-2023 5G5G65G 70205G378420205G 2棬Iplytics202015G 33.1%14.6%11.9% PCB/CCL飬4G335%193%183% 355%5G

3、档 2 3 2018 2020420档5G AIIDC 1IaaS5G蹵 IDC2018-2022CAGR21.1%41.1% PaaS2IDC IDCIDC2019-2021 CAGR32%18% 20203000 COVID-19 絼裻5G5G 2B治 飺5G 4G5G2C2B 5G 5G 2B AIoT仯5G 豸 Skyworks 3 4 PS PE PB PEG2019 2020E 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019 2019 TSLA.O 2,782 11 10 NA 334 124 78 34.3 NA AAPL.O 16,701 6 6 30 31 27 26

4、 18.5 5.7 QCOM.O 1,038 5 5 24 25 15 15 21.1 1.3 Skyworks SWKS.O 223 7 7 21 24 20 17 5.4 2.8 * BABA.N 6,632 9 7 35 29 23 19 5.3 1.6 * 0700.HK 6,439 12 10 48 40 33 28 9.2 2.4 * 3690.HK 1,428 11 10 238 215 65 44 11.0 3.1 * 1810.HK 491 2 1 30 25 21 18 4.1 1.6 * 0941.HK 1,419 1 1 9 9 9 9 0.9 3.2 600050.S

5、H 235 1 1 37 25 20 16 0.5 1.4 0788.HK 320 3 3 43 31 24 19 1.2 1.4 * 000063.SZ 250 2 2 34 30 23 19 4.5 1.6 * 0981.HK 270 9 7 115 112 109 97 3.9 29.5 * 300413.SZ 178 10 9 108 81 66 58 14.1 4.7 * 000938.SZ 131 3 3 50 42 34 28 2.7 2.3 603236.SH 30 5 4 144 81 50 34 12.1 2.3 * 300308.SZ 65 21 12 86 48 38

6、30 6.3 2.1 * 300502.SZ 35 9 6 112 55 38 30 17.5 2.0 * 600845.SH 96 10 8 75 50 41 34 8.9 2.5 * 300383.SZ 60 6 5 50 43 33 25 4.8 1.9 720 5 1 1. TSLA.O 2. AAPL.O 3. QCOM.O 4. SkyworksSWKS.O 5. BABA.N2B 6. 0700.HK2B 7. 3690.HK 8. 1810.HK 9. 0941.HK 10. 600050.SH5G 6 2 11. 0788.HK 12. 000063.SZ5G豸 13. 09

7、81.HK 14. 300413.SZ 15. 000938.SZ 16. 603236.SH 17. 300308.SZIDC/5G 18.300502.SZ 19. 600845.SHIDC 20. 300383.SZIDC CONTENTS 7 1. 5G 2. 5GR165G 2B 3. 5G5G 4. 5G 5. 6. & 7. 8 5G 9 5G 1980 1985 1990 2000 2005 2010 2015 20201995 1G 2G 3G 4G 5G 1G 2G 3G 4G 5G 1G7 2G5 3G8 4G4 5G 1G5G 10 5G 5G 20134 IMT-20

8、205G 20161 5G 顣 20166 3GPPRelease155G淶 201611 3GPP-RAN1 875GPolar Code5GeMBB/ 20176 3GPP5GSBA 20177 4.8-5.0GHz24.75-27.5GHz3742.5GHz 5GMTNet5G 20178 3GPP CT3/43GPPTCPHTTP/2JSONRestfulOpenAPI 3.05G 201711 5G3000-5000MHz滮5G滮 20186 3GPP5G NR5G 20189 3GPP R15First Call 20191 5G 20196 5G 201911 6G 20203

9、5G 20207 R1674URLLC 11 5G IITP 20195G 202025G 1-1.5 13 10 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 2020665G2520205111.5 10 2,613 556 15 9 7 3 180 1,070 23 105 10 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 5G 5G 12 5G 2020-20255G 0.04 0.23 0.72 1.31 1.85 2.61 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 2020E 2021E 2022E 2

10、023E 2024E 2025E 5G 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2019/12/31 20/6/31E 20/12/31E 21/6/31E 21/12/31E 22/6/31E 22/12/31E 13 5G 1G 3G 4G 2G / 5G 14 5G 4G 0.1Mbps/m2 10/km2 10ms 1 350Km/h 10Mbps 1 1Gbps 5G 10Mbps/m2 100/km2 1ms 100 500Km/h 100M-1Gbps 3-5 20Gbps 105G 09 4G5G 15 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 - 2,

11、000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 20 13 -01 20 13 -04 20 13 -07 20 13 -10 20 14 -01 20 14 -04 20 14 -07 20 14 -10 20 15 -01 20 15 -04 20 15 -07 20 15 -10 20 16 -01 20 16 -04 20 16 -07 20 16 -10 20 17 -01 20 17 -04 20 17 -07 20 17 -10 20 18 -01 20 18 -04 20 18 -07 20 18 -10 20 19 -01 20 19 -04 20 19 -07 2

12、0 19 -10 20 20 -01 MB /GB Logo 4G 16 4G 18% 37% 32% -5% 13% -2% 16% 2% 11% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2014-2019CAGR 2014-2019CAGR 2014-2019CAGR BATJN 17 5G 5G 15%25% 60% IC豸 IC IP EDA IC IC 人 绪 PCB/CCL PCB/CCL 5G 豸 5G 豸 WIFI-6 VR/AR 8K 18 5G ZB EB 0.13 0.16 0.28 0.49 0.80 1.23 1.80 2

13、.84 4.40 6.60 8.59 16.10 26 33 41 51 65 80 101 131 175 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 50 100 150 200 % 19 5G2B 5G2B 2B, 20% 2C, 80% 4G 2B, 80% 2C, 20% 5G 5G80%2B 2B, 78% 2B/2C, 17% 2C, 5% 20 & 2018 2019 2018323 600 20184 25% 20184 20185 514 20188 201812 20186 500 25% 20191 201956 2000 25%3250 201959 2019

14、515 70 2019520 迪 57 90 2019623 2019629 2019629 G20 20186 2019815 3000 10% 2019814 2019819 9040 20198 5 7 201986 2019108 8AI & 2020 2020515 120 2020515 5 15 2020523 滢360 33 2020721 11 2020115 飬 2020710 飬 202062 10 鷢301 顱 21 GMS 2019520GoogleAndroid GmailYouTubeGoogle PlayGMS2020225 HMS 2020515 515粻 9

15、14 EDA 2020515EDA 豸 BBC12315G豸20275G豸 顱 22 5GR165G 2B 23 5GeMBBuRLLCmMTC 5G 5G 24 R1620207 5G R15汾淶eMBBR16uRLLCR17mMTC 淶 25 R165G 2B R16 +2B R16 1us0.5-1ms4G10ms99.9999%5ms 5G V2VV2IV2X 5G R16汾 R165G10 5G R15 VR + VR + + 26 硢 硢豸 ITOT 27 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 5G 顢APP 28 5G 5G 5G+ İ 5G / 5G MEC 桢 淶 5G+AR

16、5G AR AR 5G+VR 5G Cloud VR GPU LED PPD VR VR 5G+ 4G 治 5G 豸 5G 200Mbps4K8K 5G 5G+ 5G 99.9999%10100ms 5G+ 5G 5G+ 5G 磬 5G+ AGV AGV涨 AGV AGV 5G AGV 29 5G+ 5G 5G 5G 5G+MEC +AGV 5G 5G AR 5G 30 % 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 41% 43

17、% 43% 43% 31% 27% 27% 27% 28% 29% 29% 29% 1% 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 20174709.12020 6964.4 2018 43% 27% 29% 1% 31 硱 豸 APP 145W 2,445 3,528 75W 8.8W 57W 1,050 1,949 46W 5,112 75W 1,450 2,329 22W 6,500 33.2W 1,673 507 14W 2.8W / 68.5W 477 1,228 11W 3,011

18、 71W 1,536 2,379 6.3W 5,336 79W 39W 2,072 35.2W 2,030 70W 474 1,542 13.5W 3,113 14W 40+ 450+ 1000+ 19,000 50 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2018 2019 32 33 34 2016-2030L1/L2202348%L3 10% 14% 21% 28% 38% 45% 48% 49% 48% 47% 43% 39% 35% 31% 30% 0% 0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 7% 10% 12% 15% 16% 18% 20% 21% 0% 10%

19、20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E L1-L5 L1/L2% L3% L4/L5% L1-L5% 35 2020L3/4 2020-2021L3/L4 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2019 2020 2021 2022 L3 - L4 - - - - L4 - L2 L3 L4 - - L3 - - - L2 -

20、 - L4 L5 - L4 - L5 L2 - - L4 L5 L3 - - L5 L2 L3 L4 - - - L3 - L4 L2 L4 - - - - L3 - L5 L2 L3 L3 L4 - - L3 - L4 L2-L3 - - - - - L3 - L5 FCA - - - L3/L4 - - L3 - L4 L2 - L3 - L4 - L3 - L5 L2 - L3 - L5 - L3 - L4 L2 - L3 - L4 - L2 - L4 L2 - - L4 L5 - - L4 L5 - - - L4 L5 - - L4 L5 36 5G R16 İ C-V2X R14/1

21、5 5GC-V2X R16 R14/15 C-V2X5G 5G 5G 5G C-V2X R16 37 % 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E YoY of global market YoY of China market 20214097 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 38 5G 39 2014-20256CAGR15.81% 6 2014-20256CAG

22、R29.38% 0 20 40 60 80 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 40 5G SOC 5G 865+ 990 5G Exynos9820 865 985 Exynos990 855 1000+ 820 Exynos980 765 768G 5G 1000 T7520 690G 5G 820 T751

23、0 800L 2020/7 2019/9 2018/11 2019/12 2020/4 2019/10 2018/12 2020/5 2020/3 2019/9 2019/12 2020/5 2019/11 2020/2 2020/6 2020/5 2019/2 2020/4 41 5G P40 Pro+ MateXs 2020/6 79887000 5000 4000 6000 3000 2000 1000 OPPO VIVO Mate 30 P40 nova 6 nova 7 Z 5G 2019/9 4999 2020/1 6999 2020/3 4188 2019/12 3799 202

24、0/4 2999 2020/5 1699 V30 2019/12 3299 30S 2020/3 2399 X10 2020/5 1899 Play4 2020/6 1799 10 2020/2 3999 9 Pro5G 2019/9 3699 Redmi K30 2019/12 1999 Redmi 10X 2020/5 1599 Find X2 2020/3 5499 Oppo ACE2 2020/4 3999 Reno3 2019/12 3399 Reno4 2020/6 2999 A92s 2020/4 2199 NEX3S 2020/3 4998 X50 2020/6 3498 X3

25、0 2019/12 3298 S6 2020/3 2698 Z6 2020/2 2298 iQOO 2019/8 2198 SM-W2020 2019/11 18999 S10 2019/2 8999 S20 2020/2 6999 Note10 2019/8 6599 A90 2019/9 4499 A71 2020/4 3399 5G 42 5G 9 Pro 5G 10 Redmi K30 5G Redmi 10X 2019.9.24 2020.2.13 2019.12.10 2020.5.26 3699/3799/4099/4299 3999/4299/4699 1999/2299/25

26、99 1599/1799/2099/2399 RAMGB 8/12 8/12 6/8 6/8 ROMGB 128/256/512 128/256 64/128/256 64/128/256 CPU 855 Plus 865 765G 820 NSA SA / NSA SA/NSA SA/NSA 6.39AMOLED 6.67AMOLED 6.67LCD 6.53AMOLED 48MP+16MP+12MP 108MP+13MP+2MP+2MP 64MP+8MP+5MP+2MP 48MP+8MP+5MP 20MP 20MP 20MP 16MP /沿 /沿 /沿 mAh 4000 4780 4500

27、 4520 W 40 30 30 22.5 磨W 30 30 43 % % 5G -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% 0 100 200 300 400 500 % -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Total YoY 5G% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2019.7 2019.8 2019.9 2019.1 2019.11 2019.12 20

28、20.1 2020.2 2020.3 2020.4 2020.5 2020.6 44 2G-5G仯 5G 0.7 2.6 7.2 16.35 32 38.5 0 10 20 30 40 50 54% 34% 7% 3% 2% 0% 66% 21% 9% 3% 2% 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 2017A 2023E 仯 63 70 79 89 101 115 130 149 170 202 236 272 313 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20

29、17 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E YoY 45 iFixitTonetecDigitimes 2G4GMLCC 5G iPhone MLCC MLCC2019 / 1500 1000 550 450 400 TDK 100 170 绪 150 160 AVX 100 40 46 5G+ .5 2030 70-100 2D10-202.5D20-503D70-100 602.5D1003D200 47 2020 Statista2017202011102480 202515670CAGR39%IDC鱨 2022 20253918 0% 10% 20% 3

30、0% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 48 2016 2017 2018 2019 8.49 8.87 9.25 9.5 1 2.29 5.51 8.84 2.15 2.5 3.03 3.25 0.14 0.44 1.07 1.57 2.64 2.84 3.15 3.2 0.43 0.7 1.1 1.9 GSMA 2025豸豸252 201823202270 202550 BI

31、 Intelligence 2025550豸25 Gartner 2020豸260201631.9 2025豸1000 IHS 豸201515420203072025754 49 NB-IOTCat1 2019 2020E 2025E GPRS, 49% NB-IOT, 13%eMTC, 2% 3G, 14% LTE Cat.1, 1% LTE Cat.4, 20% =LTE Cat.6, 0% 5G, 0% GPRS, 40% NB-IOT, 20%eMTC, 3% 3G, 10% LTE Cat.1, 3% LTE Cat.4, 23% =LTE Cat.6, 1% 5G, 1% GPRS

32、, 3% NB-IOT, 40% eMTC, 5%3G, 1% LTE Cat.1, 12% LTE Cat.4, 29% =LTE Cat.6, 2% 5G, 9% 5G2G201949%2020 40%20253%3G201914%2020 10%20251% NB-IoT201913%2020 20%202540%LTE Cat.120191% 20203%202512%5G 50 NB-IOT 2020 80%2GNB-IoT60%20% 2G202079IUTNB-IoT 5G 2019571148NB-IoT磬98 VodafoneAT&TVerizonNB-IOT磬 NB-IOT

33、NB-IOT NB-IOT20184000201920202 NB-IOT NB-IOT 10 500 4000 10000 20000 31000 45000 62000 80000 100000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 51 LTE Cat.1: 3G100%LTE Cat.1Cat.130%豸 POS Cat.14G裬 2G/3GNB-IoTCat 1Cat.1NB-IoT eMTCCat.4 鳧Cat.1 4G 177 263 32

34、8 372 544 650 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 52 鹫2015-2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Sirra Wireless Telit U-blox 鹫仯 鹫 7.7 1.6 0.1 13.5 6.1 1.1 16.5 11.6 2.3 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 2017 2018 2019 46% 172% 530% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50

35、% 60% 70% 2017 2018 2019 53 NB-IoT 5G 54 55 5G 1 0 . 4 % 2 5 . 2 % 2 9 . 3 % 9 . 7 % - 1 5 . 2 % 7 . 2 % 1 7 . 7 % 1 2 . 9 % 1 0 . 9 % 1 6 . 9 % - 1 8 . 8 % - 1 3 . 9 % - 6 . 4 % 5 . 1 % 1 1 . 1 % - 0 . 3 - 0 . 2 - 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 20

36、05 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 3G 4G 5G 2019 2017 -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 FY2 00 0 FY2 00 1 FY2 00 2 FY2 00 3 FY2 00 4 FY2 00 5 FY2 00 6 FY2 00 7 FY2 00 8 FY2 00 9 FY2 01 0 FY2 01 1 FY2 01 2 FY2 01

37、3 FY2 01 4 FY2 01 5 FY2 01 6 FY2 01 7 FY2 01 8 : 5G2020裬2022 5G2020-2022 0.1 13 70 90 110 80 55 42 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5G 221 1,107 1,323 1,504 1,017 650 462 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5G 56 豸 20

38、10-2019Q2豸 2160 1516 1424 1359 1353 1058 921 660 618 552 222 43 42 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 5G 0% 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 8 0 % 9 0 % 1 0 0 % - 4 0 0 . 0 - 3 0 0 . 0 - 2 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 2 0 0 . 0 3 0 0 . 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6

39、 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 57 5G 4G 335% 5G PCB/CCL 193% PCB: CCL + CCL 183% 硢 + 355% +滷 93% ST 5G 5G 65% 5G豸 36% 5G 豸 25% 5G PCB飻 顢PCB/CCL 58 2010ARPU仯 5GARPU SKTARPU仯 170 175 180 185 190 195 200 205 210 215 73 71 68 67 59 56 57.5 57.7 53.1 49.152.4 53.9 62.1 59.1 54.1 55.5 55.1 50.5 45.8 43.7 47.4 4

40、7.9 48.2 47.8 46.3 46.4 48 45.7 40.435 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 20 40 60 80 2010201120122013201420152016201720182019 ARPU仯 5G 59 2C/2H 5G 20% 2B 5G 80% MECSAAS 5G2B /VR/AR/ / / I- PAAS IDC 5G/4G/WIFI 6 F5G 乾 & 豸 桰3-5 豸 Know-how 豸IDC IDCIDC 桰3-5 洢 5G

41、 60% 15% 25% 5G 60 61 201812 5G 裬 20193 2019 12 裬裬 罨裬 裬幫 202013 2020214 2020221 豸 5G 硢 202034 5G 硢 2020420 62 202034 2020420 磬5G 磬 5G 衢 63 64 20205 65 IaaS5G蹵 蹵 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E IaaS PaaS SaaS YoY 0% 10% 20% 30% 40%

42、50% 60% 70% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 66 IaaS2017 IaaS2018 IaaS2019 IaaS2017 IaaS2018H2 IaaS2019H2 49% 13%5% 3% 2% 27% AWS IBM 48% 16% 8% 4% 2% 23% AWS IBM 45% 18% 9% 5% 23% AWS 46% 10% 8% 7% 5% 25% AWS 43% 12%9% 6% 5% 25% AWS 41.9% 12.0% 7.7% 7.6% 7.1% 23.7% AWS 67 IDCIDC 2018 洢 20% 20% 20% 25% 30% 3

43、0% 35% 41% 42% 50% 62% 64% 70% 70% 70% 70% 75% 80% 80% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Phoenix New York Dallas-Fort Worth Las Vegas/Reno Los Angeles Atlanta Chicago Singapore Northern Virginia Northern California Austin/San Antonio Hong kong Paris Frankfurt Dublin Amsterdam Northwest Canada S

44、ydney 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 68 IDC IDC IDC 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 % 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 % /IT2018 -100% -50% 0%

45、 50% 100% 150% 200% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% %LHS capex%RHS 22% 8% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 69 IDC 2018棩 PUE1.4 & 2018-2020 616PUE1.4PUE1.3 2019 PUE1.4PUE1.2540% 2020 10PUE1.4PUE1.6 IDC涨 5G 4k 210ms 20ms 20ms10ms 3-5ms 70 71 IoT+AI IoT豸豸 AI豸 仯 72 磺 磺 塣 73 - Virtual Singapore 滮 74 & 75 4G5G4G 2019

46、38EB 10.5EB2014-2019CAGR64%116%BATJN CAGR18%37%32%豸 2014138/GB20196 /GB95%O2O 豸 5G60%2C 2B &4G 飬5G棬2022-2023 5GR162B5GeMBB uRLLCmMTC7R16 uRLLCC-V2X2B 1&5G 棬L1/L2202348%L3 棬C-V2X R16 2022 1,6295302019-2022CAGR21%30%25G AR/VR2020 6,9642017-2020CAGR14%R16 1 76 5G5GAIoT 5G2019Q34000-5500 150065G1,75160%

47、 5G6,36040%5G 仯+ 档棬Statista20172020 1,1102,480202515,670CAGR39% NB-IOTCat12G3G 5G5G2020 NB-IOTCat15G20%3%1%202540%13% 9%AIoT档 5G5G豸罨跽棬2020 3402020CAPEX 3,34811% 5G1,803338%2022-2023 5G5G65G 70205G378420205G 2棬Iplytics202015G 33.1%14.6%11.9% PCB/CCL飬4G335%193%183% 355%5G 档 2 77 2018 2020420档5G AIIDC

48、1IaaS5G蹵IDC 2018-2022CAGR21.1%41.1%PaaS 2IDC IDCIDC2019-2021 CAGR32%18%2020 3000 COVID-19 絼裻5G5G 2B治 飺5G 4G5G2C2B 5G 5G 2B AIoT仯5G 豸 Skyworks 3 78 PS PE PB PEG2019 2020E 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019 2019 TSLA.O 2,782 11 10 NA 334 124 78 34.3 NA AAPL.O 16,701 6 6 30 31 27 26 18.5 5.7 QCOM.O 1,038 5 5

49、24 25 15 15 21.1 1.3 Skyworks SWKS.O 223 7 7 21 24 20 17 5.4 2.8 * BABA.N 6,632 9 7 35 29 23 19 5.3 1.6 * 0700.HK 6,439 12 10 48 40 33 28 9.2 2.4 * 3690.HK 1,428 11 10 238 215 65 44 11.0 3.1 * 1810.HK 491 2 1 30 25 21 18 4.1 1.6 * 0941.HK 1,419 1 1 9 9 9 9 0.9 3.2 600050.SH 235 1 1 37 25 20 16 0.5 1

50、.4 0788.HK 320 3 3 43 31 24 19 1.2 1.4 * 000063.SZ 250 2 2 34 30 23 19 4.5 1.6 * 0981.HK 270 9 7 115 112 109 97 3.9 29.5 * 300413.SZ 178 10 9 108 81 66 58 14.1 4.7 * 000938.SZ 131 3 3 50 42 34 28 2.7 2.3 603236.SH 30 5 4 144 81 50 34 12.1 2.3 * 300308.SZ 65 21 12 86 48 38 30 6.3 2.1 * 300502.SZ 35 9

51、 6 112 55 38 30 17.5 2.0 * 600845.SH 96 10 8 75 50 41 34 8.9 2.5 * 300383.SZ 60 6 5 50 43 33 25 4.8 1.9 720 79 80 1 1. TSLA.O 2. AAPL.O 3. QCOM.O 4. SkyworksSWKS.O 5. BABA.N2B 6. 0700.HK2B 7. 3690.HK 8. 1810.HK 9. 0941.HK 10. 600050.SH5G 81 2 11. 0788.HK 12. 000063.SZ5G豸 13. 0981.HK 14. 300413.SZ 15

52、. 000938.SZ 16. 603236.SH 17. 300308.SZIDC/5G 18.300502.SZ 19. 600845.SHIDC 20. 300383.SZIDC 82 TSLA.O 2013 2014 2016.07 2016.10 FSDAP HW3.0 2017 2019 AP HW2.5Autopilot Mobileye AP HW1.0 AP HW 2.0 2017.8 2017.12 2018.04 2018.07 Model SModel X FSD 2018.12 2019.03 FSD Model 3FSD 2019.04 83 TSLA.O 2019

53、 Non-GAAP 84 綯 TSLA.O 20202021 Roadster 20051 2007.10 9.8 Model S 2009.3 2012.6 7.99 Model X 2012.2 2015.9 8.49 Model 3 2016.3 2017.7 3.99 Cybertruck 2019.11 2021.12 3.99 Roadster 2 201711 2020 20 Semi 201711 2020 15 Model Y 2019.3 2020.3 4.80 85 TSLA.O Roadster 200710 N/A 9.8 Model S 2009.3 20126 3

54、9 7.99 Model X 20122 20159 43 8.49 Model 3 20163 20177 16 3.99 Semi 201711 2020 N/A 15 Model 3 201811 2019.12 12 29.9 Model Y 20193 20203 11 4.80 Cyber Truck 201911 2021 N/A 3.99 86 201910% TSLA.O 201910%-19% 25 50 75 100 Mode 3棨 Mode 3棨 Model 3 Model S 100D棩 Model X 100D棩 0 2 4 6 8 10 Model 3 Stand

55、ard Range Plus Model S Long Range Plus Model X Long Range Plus Model Y Long Range 87 2020Q1100 TSLA.O 0 10 20 30 40 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 Model S/X Model 3/Y 10.16 6.29 3.75 5.00 15.3 30.23 26.25 30.00 5.00 25.00 12.50 15.00 10.00 0 20 40 60 80 100 2018 2019 2020E 2021E Mode

56、l S/X Model 3 Model Y Model 3 Model Y 32202047.5202185.0 88 PS BAND TSLA.O 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 21,461 24,578 27,388 37,795 48,379 83% 15% 11% 38% 28% 18.9% 16.6% 18.8% 20.6% 21.5% -227 36 834 2,243 3,586 - - 2217% 169% 60% PS 13 11 10 7 6 PE - - 334 124 78 0 200 400 600 80

57、0 1,000 1,200 1,400 1,600 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Jun -15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Feb -16 Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Jun -17 Aug -17 Oct -17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Aug -19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 Jun -20 1.38X 3.

58、33X 5.28X 7.23X 9.19X 89 FY2019 AAPL.O 55%, 1424 18%, 463 10%, 257 8%, 213 9%, 245 iPhone iPhone iPhone iPhone SE2019 iPhone 11iPhone 11 iPhone 11 ProiPhone 11 Pro Max App StoreApple Music iCloud2019 Apple Arcade Apple TV+ Apple News+Apple Card Apple TVHomePod Apple WatchAirPodsiPad iPad iPadiPad Ai

59、r iPad MiniiPad Pro Mac 1997Mac Mac iMac Mac Pro MacBook Air MacBook Pro 90 AAPL.O % -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 % % -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 % 0.00 500.00 1,000.00 1,500.00 2,000.00 2,500.00 3,000.00 iPhone Mac iPad 0% 5%

60、 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 91 AAPL.O豸 % 豸 2019豸2019 32% 12% 9%8% 5% 34% Fitbit 14% 22% 18%9% 8% 30% OPPO -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 Total YoY 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 92 AAPL.O 2019 2019462.9118%2019Apple Arcade, Apple TV+, Apple News+ Apple Card Ap

61、p Store, Apple Music, iCloud 20 08 20 09 2 01 4 20 15 20 19 2 02 0 A p p S t or e A p p l e M u s i c 2014 10 20 A p p l e P ay 2019 9 11 A p p l e T V + 2019 3 26 A p p l e A r c ad e A p p l e C ar d 2019 6 4 A p p l e P od c ast s i T u n e s A p p 2009 4 9 i C l ou d AR豸 93 PE BAND AAPL.O / 2018

62、 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 265,595 260,174 263,655 295,997 309,363 16% -2% 1% 12% 5% 59,531 55,256 54,140 61,841 64,477 39% -7% -2% 14% 4% PE 28 30 31 27 26 720 94 QCOM.O CDMA Gobi Snapdragon 3G / 4G 7PC 1989 1991 75 2007 2012 2015 20161985 RF360 Holdings Singapore Pte 2018 2019 Snapdragon Mobile Platf

63、orms 95 QCOM.O 2019 Non-GAAP 96 PE Band QCOM.O 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 22,732 19,398 20,844 26,647 28,066 -2% -15% 7% 28% 5% 57.4% 58.0% 57.6% 56.9% 56.4% 5,443 4,323 4,208 6,712 7,120 -15% -21% -3% 60% 6% PE 19 24 25 15 15 -120.00 -70.00 -20.00 30.00 80.00 130.00 Dec-14 Fe b-

64、15 Apr- 15 Jun -15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-16 Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Jun -17 Aug -17 Oct- 17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Aug -19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 12.78X 15.79X 18.4X 21.21X 24.02X 97 SkyworksSWKS.O Sk

65、yworks SolutionsRF峧豸 FEMs 飩Amps/ PM 1962Alpha Industries2002Conexant Systems Skyworks Solutions9000 35003200200 Skyworks:- 1962 Alpha Industries Alpha Industries Conexant Systems Skyworks Solutions 2002 2006 Freescale SemiconductorPA 2007 2009 SiGe Semiconductor 2011 2012 AATI FilterCoSAW 66%2016 34

66、% 2014 2018 Avnera 98 SkyworksSWKS.O Skyworks% Skyworks% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 YoY -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 Non-GAAP Skyworks 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Skyworks 20% 22% 34

67、%80% 78% 66% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 2011 2015 2019 99 SkyworksSWKS.O 52 72 92 119 147 167 202 225 242 280 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 ,% 50 70 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2017 2023 PA 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 YoY ,% ,% 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.9 7.2 8.0

68、 9.7 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E YoY YolePA 100 SkyworksSWKS.O SAW BAW PA 57% 21% 14% 9% 4% 5% Murata TDK TAIYO YUDEN Skyworks Qorvo 87% 8% 3% 2% Broadcom Qovor TAIYO YUDEN TDK 43% 25% 25% 7% Skyworks Qorvo Broadcom 42% 23% 35% Qorvo Skyworks BAW5GSk

69、yworks BAW 101 SkyworksSWKS.O黯 IDM iphone 4s iphone 6s iphone 11pro SKY77464-20 Skyworks PA SKY77812 Skyworks PAMiD Avago 8100 Avago PAMiD ACPM-7181 Avago PA AFEM-8030 Avago PAMiD Skyworks 78221-17 Skyworks PAMiD TQM9M9390 TriQuint/Qorvo SAW TQF6405 TriQuint/Qorvo PAMiD Skyworks 13797-19 Skyworks DR

70、xM TQM666052 TriQuint/Qor vo PAD RF5150 RFMD/Qovor Skyworks 78223-17 Skyworks PAM PA / SMMB PA PA MMMB PA PA ASM FEMiD PAMiD DRxM DRxMLNA 102 2015-2022豸% Skyworks2019 SkyworksSWKS.O 3,063 3,753 4,860 6,692 8,510 10,688 13,001 15,503 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000

71、12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 豸 豸 Skyworks CO Wi-FiZigbee/ 802.15.4Bluetooth LED RF M2M 豸 M2M 450 MHz, 900 MHz, 2400 MHz 豸 103 SkyworksSWKS.O Skyworks PE Band Skyworks 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Jun -15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-1

72、6 Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Jun -17 Aug -17 Oct -17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Aug -19 Oct- 19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 Jun -20 10.75X 14.51X 18.27X 22.04X 25.8X FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 3,868 3,377 3,158

73、 3,496 4,015 6% -13% -6% 11% 15% 51.0% 50.6% 50.1% 51.1% 51.9% 1,323 1,077 949 1,109 1,336 10% -19% -12% 17% 20% PE 17 21 24 20 17 720 104 BABA.N2B 105 FY2020 BABA.N -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 () (%) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50

74、000 60000 70000 80000 (%) 0.0% 20.0% 40.0% 60.0% 80.0% % % % (%) 85.6% 7.9% 5.3% 1.3% 106 GMV BABA.N GMV 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E PDD 0 200 400 600 800 1000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 FY2014 FY2015 FY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020 GMV 107 BABA.N+ /

75、 100% 2011.05 2012.05 51% 68.83% 2013.06 2015.04 13.54% 51% 34.5% 100% 2013.03 2015.09 2016.06 2017.07 100% 100% 2013.08 2011.06 30% 2014.09 ISV 0.3-5/ IT 108 % BABA.N400 EBITDA 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4

76、 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 YoY -80% -70% -60% -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% -6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 15Q2 15Q3 15Q4 16Q1 16Q2 16Q3 16Q4 17Q1 17Q2 17Q3 17Q4 18Q1 18Q2 18Q3 18Q4 19Q1 19Q2 19Q3 19Q4 20Q1 EBITDA EBUTDA 109 BABA.N 2019MAU5 110 PE BAND BABA.N 720 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 71.8X 57.5X 43.3X 29

77、.0X 14.7X / 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 376,844 509,711 653,041 803,542 960,501 YoY% 51% 35% 28% 23% 20% 57% 45% 45% 45% 45% Non-GAAP 93,407 132,379 160,345 199,607 243,554 YoY% 12% 42% 21% 24% 22% PENon-GAAPUS 50 35 29 23 19 111 0700.HK2B 罻&IM / 2B checkout Facebook 112 % 0700.HK 0% 5% 10% 15% 20%

78、25% 30% 1Q2 016 2Q2 016 3Q2 016 4Q2 016 1Q2 017 2Q2 017 3Q2 017 4Q2 017 1Q2 018 2Q2 018 3Q2 018 4Q2 018 1Q2 019 2Q2 019 20 19 Q3 20 19 Q4 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 GAAP Non-GAAP 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 1Q 20 16 2Q 20 16 3Q 20 16 4Q 20 16 1Q 20 17 2Q 20 17 3Q 20 17 4Q 20 17 1Q 20 18 2Q 20 18 3Q 20 1

79、8 4Q 20 18 1Q 20 19 2Q 20 19 3Q 20 19 4Q 20 19 & 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1Q 20 16 2Q 20 16 3Q 20 16 4Q 20 16 1Q 20 17 2Q 20 17 3Q 20 17 4Q 20 17 1Q 20 18 2Q 20 18 3Q 20 18 4Q 20 18 1Q 20 19 2Q 20 19 20 19 Q3 20 19 Q4 113 0700.HK桢 2019Q436% 2019Q4, 50%54%飬 0 200 400

80、 600 800 1000 1200 1Q 20 16 2Q 20 16 3Q 20 16 4Q 20 16 1Q 20 17 2Q 20 17 3Q 20 17 4Q 20 17 1Q 20 18 2Q 20 18 3Q 20 18 4Q 20 18 1Q 20 19 2Q 20 19 20 19 Q3 20 19 Q4 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 & 114 2018 60 2018 91 2019Q3& 4780%100 2019 170100 % 0700.HK 0 10 20 30 40 50 2019Q1 2019Q4 90 170 210 350 0 50

81、 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2018 2019 115 0700.HK 720 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 3,127 3,773 4,582 5,541 6,596 YoY 32% 21% 21% 21% 19% GAAP 787 933 1,107 1,344 1,589 YoY 10% 19% 19% 21% 18% Non-GAAP 775 944 1,127 1,371 1,624 YoY 19% 27% 21% 20% 19% P/EGAAP 57 48 41 34 28 P/ENon-GAAP 58 48 40 33 28

82、 PE-BAND 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 57.1X 49.4X 41.6X 33.9X 26.1X 116 3690.HK 30 APP App PMS 117 3690.HK 2019 Non-GAAP -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 120000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 56% 23% 21% -250% -200% -150% -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% -10000 -800

83、0 -6000 -4000 -2000 0 2000 4000 6000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 Non-GAAP 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 118 3690.HK 0 2 4 6 8 0 100 200 300 400 500 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 TTM TTM 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 0 50 100 150 200 250 20

84、17Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 GTV GVT GTV 119 3690.HK PS bandTTM 720 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 65,227 97,529 110,880 157,053 195,895 YoY 92% 50% 14% 42% 25% Non-GAAP -11,805 3,058 3,619 18,617 29,035 GAAP -115,447 2,239 1,898 13,187 21,502 Non-GAAP -8,517 4,65

85、7 5,143 17,046 25,433 YoY - - 10% 231% 49% PS 17 11 10 7 6 0.00 50.00 100.00 150.00 200.00 250.00 3.58X 4.55X 5.52X 6.49X 7.46X 120 & 1810.HK 121 1810.HK -500 -400 -300 -200 -100 0 100 200 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 2015 2016 2017 2018 2

86、019 IoT 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% -50 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 IoT 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 122 1810.HK -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% - 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 20

87、18Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 () 123 IOT 1810.HKIoT 200 300 415 530 2.1% 3.0% 4.1% 5.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 11.3% 11.7% 10.2% 3.6% 12.7% 9.4% 10.5% 10.6% 12.0% 11.2% 12.8% 9.4% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0

88、% 2017Q1 2017Q2 2017Q3 2017Q4 2018Q1 2018Q2 2018Q3 2018Q4 2019Q1 2019Q2 2019Q3 2019Q4 124 PE BAND 1810.HK 720 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 10X 15X 20X 25X 30X / 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 1,749.15 2,058.39 2,491.98 2,972.35 3,482.23 YoY 52.6% 17.7% 21.1% 19.3% 17.2% 85.56 115.30 135.38 161.77

89、193.45 YoY 351.3% 34.8% 17.4% 19.5% 19.6% EPS 0.36 0.48 0.56 0.67 0.81 12.7% 13.9% 14.5% 14.8% 14.8% ROE 12.00% 14.18% 14.49% 14.99% 15.43% 2.97 3.39 3.89 4.50 5.22 PE 40 30 25 21 18 125 0941.HK 1987 1997 2000 2003 2013 2012 2018 2019 2020 绰 5G 乾 4G TD-LTE GSM2G 硢TD-SCDMA3G 硢TD-LTELTE FDD 4G 5G 100M

90、 IDCICT 缯V POP 羳 羳IP CDN硢 126 0941.HK 2019 28% 29% 16% 8% 12% 7% % % -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -12% -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 2014 2015 2016

91、2017 2018 2019 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 800,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 127 0941.HK5G ARPU 19Q319Q4 0 . 9 % - 0 . 6 % - 0 . 3 % - 1 . 5 % - 1 . 4 % - 0 . 9 % 1 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 2 . 6 % 3 . 2 % - 8 . 0 % - 6 . 0 % - 4 . 0 % - 2 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 4 . 0 % 6 . 0 % 8 .

92、0 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 2 . 0 % 2 0 1 9 - 0 2 2 0 1 9 - 0 3 2 0 1 9 - 0 4 2 0 1 9 - 0 5 2 0 1 9 - 0 6 2 0 1 9 - 0 7 2 0 1 9 - 0 8 2 0 1 9 - 0 9 2 0 1 9 - 1 0 2 0 1 9 - 1 1 - 2 0 0 - 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 128 0941.HK5G 5G 5G 5G2.6GHz 2.6GHz3.5G44% 1Mbps2.6G 3.5G43% 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0

93、 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 TD D 2 . 6 G 5 G 2 . 6 G 5 G 3 . 5 G 5 G 4 . 9 G 4G 5G 5G 5G - 2 0 . 0 % - 1 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % 5 0 . 0 % 2 9 . 3 % 2 6 . 4 % 2 4 . 0 % 2 2 . 7 % 2 2 . 3 % 2 3 . 4 % 2 4 . 5 % 2 5 . 0 % 2 4 . 0 % 2 2 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 1

94、5 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 5 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % - 5 0 , 0 0 0 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 1 5 0 , 0 0 0 2 0 0 , 0 0 0 2 5 0 , 0 0 0 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 E 2 0 2 0 E 2 0 2 1 E 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 2 0 2 5 E 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 3 0 0 0 5 G 2 . 6 G 5 G 3 . 5 G 5 G 4 . 9 G 5G 5G

95、5G 129 0941.HK 5 4G 7762 11269 15669 18704 0 2 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 - 1 0 , 0 0 0 2 0 , 0 0 0 3 0 , 0 0 0 4 0 , 0 0 0 5

96、 0 , 0 0 0 6 0 , 0 0 0 7 0 , 0 0 0 8 0 , 0 0 0 9 0 , 0 0 0 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 2 0 0 5 2 0 0 6 2 0 0 7 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 373 - 4 0 0 - 3 0 0 - 2 0 0 - 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 7 0 0 130 0941.HK 2222 2019 0 1 0

97、 0 2 0 0 3 0 0 4 0 0 5 0 0 6 0 0 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 E 2 0 2 0 E 2 0 2 1 E 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 14065 14153 14496 15257 0.0% 0.62% 2.4% 5.2% 10.4% 10.2% 9.0% 8.0% 1463 1443 1305 1221 138 84 28% 29% 16% 8% 12% 7% 131 0941.HK FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 202

98、1E FY 2022E 736,819 745,917 771,713 807,576 853,669 -0.5% 1.2% 3.5% 4.7% 5.7% 16.5% 15.2% 16.0% 15.7% 15.5% 117,781 106,791 108,490 112,394 116,506 3.1% -9.5% 1.6% 3.6% 3.7% PE 8.4 9.3 9.2 8.8 8.5 720 PE Band 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Jun -15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-16

99、Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Jun -17 Aug -17 Oct -17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct- 18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Aug -19 Oct- 19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 Jun -20 8.37X 10.34X 12.32X 14.3X 16.28X 132 600050.SH5G 1994 1995 2000 2002 2007 2009 2016 2017 2018 20

100、19 GSM iPhone 2022 29 豸 5G 5G 5G 5G 133 600050.SH % % -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

101、2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 134 PE Band 600050.SH 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 290,877 290,515 307,667 331,711 363,204 6% 0% 6% 8% 9% 26.6% 26.3% - - - 4,081 4,982 6,295 7,912 9,877 858% 22% 26% 2

102、6% 25% PE 39 37 25 20 16 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Ju n-15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec -15 Fe b-16 Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Jun -17 Aug -17 Oct -17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Aug -19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Feb -20 Ap

103、r- 20 Jun -20 16.48X 31.31X 46.14X 60.97X 75.8X 135 0788.HK 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 齨 100 71 136 0788.HK % 仯 EBITDA% 2019 DAS 40% 54% 54% 52% 70% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 - 8 8 . 0 5 6 0 . 0 6 8 6 . 7 7 1 8 . 2 5 3 6 . 4 9 . 8 3 2 6 . 6 4 0 3 . 6 4 1 7 . 7 3 1 7 .

104、2 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 2015 2016 2017 2018 2 0 1 9 Q 3 E B IT D A E B IT D A - 3 5 . 9 6 0 . 7 6 1 9 . 4 3 2 6 . 5 0 2 5 . 4 8 1 0 2 . 1 1 % 2 4 5 6 . 5 8 % 3 6 . 3 9 % 1 1 0 . 5 8 % 0% 5 0 0 % 1 0 0 0 % 1 5 0 0 % 2 0 0 0 % 2 5 0 0 % 3 0 0 0 % - 4 0 - 3 0 - 2 0 - 1

105、 0 0 10 20 30 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 H 1 137 1 9 2 . 0 1 5 . 1 4 . 0 1 2 . 4 4 . 3 4 . 0 2 . 8 2 . 8 2 . 8 2 . 2 2 . 3 3 0 . 3 1 5 . 8 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 5 0 . 0 2 0 0 . 0 2 5 0 . 0 0788.HK估 Gartner 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2G/3G 4G 2013滮 4G4G 500+ 滮100-200 4G 5G

106、 滮 5G 400 + 138 0788.HK 5G 152 173 187 195 199194 242 269 301 324 1.28 1.40 1.44 1.54 1.62 0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00 1.20 1.40 1.60 1.80 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ( ( 0.45 2.30 2.50 2.28 2.31 0.58 3.21 3.58 3.52 3.74 - 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 4.00 2015 2016

107、 2017 2018 2019 (/) (/) 139 0788.HK5G 5G PM2.5 桢 2019-202445% 2024 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 ( 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 140 0788.HK5G 2019 衣 2018 2019 14.61 24.2 66% 17691 19000 7% 2887 3327 15% 2015-202

108、4 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% - 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 141 0788.HK5G 5G 5G5G 20205G 2021 2018 2019E 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5G 10 110 310 500 700 800 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 5G 5 55 155 250 350 400 20 32 37 87 187 282 382 432 / 0.69 0.31 0.25 0.24 0.22 0.15 0.

109、14 0.13 % -55% -19% -5% -10% -30% -5% -5% 406 660 871 1485 2951 3534 4752 5534 63% 32% 70% 99% 20% 34.5% 16.5% 142 0788.HK FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 71,819 76,428 82,518 88,738 94,654 4.59% 6.42% 7.97% 7.54% 6.67% 2,650 5,222 7,172 9,377 11,902 36% 97% 37% 31% 27% PE 85 43 31 24 19

110、720 PE Band 0 1 2 3 4 5 42.18X 64.51X 86.85X 109.18X 131.52X 143 000063.SZ5G豸 1985 1986 1997 2004 2005 2006 2012 2016 2018 2020 MTO 5G A 2G 5G AAU BBU RRU Sm all Cell & & OT N MS T P IP & SDN&NFV ZX MW SRU2 PO N OL T LA N MDU DSL MDU DS L OL T PON ONT DSL CPE ET H CP E 5G I MS& CS uSm art Cloud 洢 CS

111、S200 0 洢 GoldenDB IT 洢 ZE NI C SD N & UPS Z EGO IDC MDC CDC Min iDC A x on BL A DE 4G IP DV B H Telus3G 飬3G 4GLTE 144 000063.SZ % 20142019 % 2019 3 6 . 1 % 1 6 . 6 % 2 2 . 8 % - 2 . 4 % - 1 0 . 7 % 8 . 3 % 2 3 . 0 % 1 . 0 % 7 . 5 % - 2 1 . 4 % 6 . 1 % - 3 0 . 0 % - 2 0 . 0 % - 1 0 . 0 % 0 . 0 % 1 0

112、. 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 % - 2 0 , 0 0 0 4 0 , 0 0 0 6 0 , 0 0 0 8 0 , 0 0 0 1 0 0 , 0 0 0 1 2 0 , 0 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 42.61% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 - 3 0 0 % - 2 0

113、 0 % - 1 0 0 % 0% 1 0 0 % 2 0 0 % 3 0 0 % 4 0 0 % - 8 0 . 0 0 - 6 0 . 0 0 - 4 0 . 0 0 - 2 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 2 0 . 0 0 4 0 . 0 0 6 0 . 0 0 2 0 0 8 2 0 0 9 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 7 3 . 4 % 1 6 . 5 % 1 0 . 1 % 145 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50

114、% 50% 52% 54% 56% 58% 59% 14% 8% 4% 5% 6% - 4% 4% 0% 0% 6% 6% 6% 7% 5% - 1 0 % 0% 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 0 5 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 5 0 0 2 0 0 0 2 5 0 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 2 0 2 0 E 2 0 2 1 E 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 豸 豸 4G

115、 4G 5G 0% 1 0 % 2 0 % 3 0 % 4 0 % 5 0 % 6 0 % 7 0 % 8 0 % 9 0 % 1 0 0 % 000063.SZ估 豸豸 2020-2024豸 146 000063.SZ 2019A7 2010-2019豸 豸 36132 34291 62931 173952 0 2 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 8 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 1 4 0 0 0 0 1 6 0 0 0 0 1 8 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0 1062 875 516 206 0 2 0 0 4 0 0

116、 6 0 0 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 0 0 / 1 0 . 1 % 9 . 8 % 1 0 . 5 % 9 . 8 % 1 1 . 1 % 1 2 . 2 % 1 2 . 6 % 1 1 . 9 % 1 2 . 8 % 1 3 . 8 % 0 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 4 . 0 % 6 . 0 % 8 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 2 . 0 % 1 4 . 0 % 1 6 . 0 % 0 20 40 60 80 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 2 0 1 0 2 0 1 1 2 0 1 2 2 0 1 3 2 0 1 4 2 0 1 5 2 0 1 6 2 0 1

117、 7 2 0 1 8 2 0 1 9 1 3 . 8 % 0 . 0 % 2 . 0 % 4 . 0 % 6 . 0 % 8 . 0 % 1 0 . 0 % 1 2 . 0 % 1 4 . 0 % 1 6 . 0 % 0 20 40 60 80 1 0 0 1 2 0 1 4 0 1 6 0 1 8 0 2 0 0 A 147 000063.SZ 5G ICT 縲 2019-20255G480 5G 5G 3 3 . 1 % 2 7 . 2 % 1 7 . 1 % 1 3 . 8 % 8 . 9 % C h in e s e C o m p a n i e s K o r e a n C o

118、m p a n ie s E u r o p e a n C o m p a n ie s U S C o m p a n ie s J a p a n e s e C o m p a n ie s 1 0 . 4 1 % 2 . 6 5 % 3 . 0 0 % 3 . 3 5 % 3 . 4 7 % 4 . 0 4 % 6 . 0 0 % 6 . 9 4 % 9 . 9 8 % 1 0 . 6 8 % 1 1 . 8 9 % 1 2 . 9 8 % 1 4 . 6 1 % 0 . 0 0 % 2 . 0 0 % 4 . 0 0 % 6 . 0 0 % 8 . 0 0 % 1 0 . 0 0

119、% 1 2 . 0 0 % 1 4 . 0 0 % 1 6 . 0 0 % C A T T O p p o N T T D o c o m o S h a r p I n t e l LG 15 65 80 90 75 57 50 20 20 5 3 - 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 0 1 0 0 1 2 0 2 0 1 9 E 2 0 2 0 E 2 0 2 1 E 2 0 2 2 E 2 0 2 3 E 2 0 2 4 E 2 0 2 5 E 17% 25% 86% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2013 2019 148 0000

120、63.SZ5G -5G -5G2019Q2 5G 5G 5G 4G 11.89% 7.22% 4.67% 14.61% 9.99% 4.62% Oppo 3.00% 0.39% 2.61% 9.98% 7.59% 2.39% 12.98% 10.92% 2.06% Intel 4.04% 2.37% 1.67% 6.94% 5.80% 1.14% Vivo 1.11% 0.00% 1.11% ASUA 0.52% 0.11% 0.41% 0.45% 0.16% 0.29% 8 . 3 0 5 . 9 7 4 . 3 1 2 . 4 4 0 . 0 0 1 . 0 0 2 . 0 0 3 . 0

121、 0 4 . 0 0 5 . 0 0 6 . 0 0 7 . 0 0 8 . 0 0 9 . 0 0 5G 9 . 0 % 3 . 6 % 8 . 4 % 8 . 2 % 7 . 6 % 7 . 5 % 8 . 7 % 9 . 6 % 0 . 0 % 5 . 0 % 1 0 .0 % 1 5 . 0 % 2 0 . 0 % 2 5 . 0 % 3 0 . 0 % 3 5 . 0 % 1 Q 1 8 2 Q 1 8 3 Q 1 8 4 Q 1 8 1 Q 1 9 2 Q 1 9 3 Q 1 9 4 Q 1 9 5G 1 5 . 4 % 1 6 . 5 % 1 7 . 1 % 0% 5% 10%

122、15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1 Q 1 6 2 Q 1 6 3 Q 1 6 4 Q 1 6 1 Q 1 7 2 Q 1 7 3 Q 1 7 4 Q 1 7 1 Q 1 8 2 Q 1 8 3 8 4 Q 1 8 1 Q 1 9 2 Q 1 9 3 Q 1 9 4 Q 1 9 149 000063.SZ 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 85,513 90,737 103,040 122,857 142,477 -21% 6% 14% 19% 16% 33% 37% 35% 37% 37% -6,984 5,

123、148 5,899 7,465 9,039 - - 15% 27% 21% PE - 34 30 23 19 PE Band -60.00 -40.00 -20.00 0.00 20.00 40.00 60.00 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Ju n-15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-16 Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Ju n-17 Aug -17 Oct- 17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct -18 Dec-1

124、8 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Aug -19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 Jun -20 10.06X 15.78X 21.5X 27.22X 32.94X 150 0981.HK 2000 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2009 2011 2015 2017 2019 2020 0.35-0.13 漼 8 0.18 10 65/55 90 45/40 28 30 A 14 FinFET IP 0.3514 IPIP IP 0.3514 0.3514 151 0981.HK 2019 -100% 0% 100% 200

125、% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 0 50 100 150 200 250 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 20 08 20 09 20 10 20 11 20 12 20 13 20 14 20 15 20 16 20 17 20 18 20 19 YoY 92.98% 7.02% -2500% -2000% -1500% -1000% -500% 0% 500% 1000% -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

126、2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoY -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 152 PE Band 0981.HK 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 3,360 3,116 3,853 4,452 5,174 8% -7% 24% 16% 16% 22% 21% 23% 22% 23% 134 235 242

127、 247 278 -25% 75% 3% 2% 13% PE 201 115 112 109 97 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Jun -15 Aug -15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-16 Apr- 16 Jun -16 Aug -16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Ju n-17 Aug -17 Oct -17 Dec-17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Aug -18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Ju n-19 Aug

128、 -19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 Jun -20 11.99X 19.88X 27.78X 35.67X 43.56X 153 300413.SZ 1999 2001 2004 2005 2006 2010 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 鴫 TV APP 3.3 TV 19 4700 TV 4.89 TV 20 鴫 顢 廥 154 300413.SZ 2019 -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0.000 20.000 40.000 60.000 80.000 100.000 120.000 14

129、0.000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoY 50.54% 31.22% 16.06% 1.73% 0.45% 廥 -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400% 1600% 0.000 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 YoY 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2011 2012 2013 2014 201

130、5 2016 2017 2018 2019 155 PE Band 300413.SZ 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 9,661 12,501 14,473 16,219 17,595 17% 29% 16% 12% 8% 37% 34% 34% 35% 35% 866 1,156 1,538 1,888 2,136 21% 34% 33% 23% 13% PE 144 108 81 66 58 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 207.0X 162.9X 118.8X 74.7X 30.6X 1

131、56 000938.SZ 157 000938.SZ % % % IT 0.00 5.00 10.00 15.00 20.00 25.00 2016 2017 2018 2019 158 000938.SZ 洢硢 159 000938.SZ wind*IT 豸2018 15.1% 50% 豸 160 000938.SZ 40% 2019 4 弼 2021 + 161 000938.SZ FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 48,306 54,099 64,481 78,606 97,004 24% 12% 19% 22% 23% 21% 21%

132、 22% 22% 23% 1,704 1,843 2,200 2,688 3,302 8% 8% 19% 22% 23% PE 50 42 34 28 50 720 PE Band 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Dec-14 Fe b-15 Apr- 15 Jun -15 Au g-15 Oct -15 Dec -15 Fe b-16 Apr- 16 Ju n-16 Au g-16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-17 Apr- 17 Jun -17 Au g-17 Oct -17 Dec -17 Fe b-18 Apr- 18 Jun -18 Au g-18 Oct

133、-18 Dec-18 Fe b-19 Apr- 19 Jun -19 Au g-19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Fe b-20 Apr- 20 Jun -20 27.74X 38.72X 49.69X 60.67X 71.64X 162 603236.SH GSM/GPRS M95 Vodafone LTE-A 5G飻 2011 HSPA/UMTS/G NSS 2012 2G/3G/4G/GNS S 2013 2014 2015 20162010 GSM/GPRS M10 LTE EC21 Cat 1 EC25 Cat 4 SC20 6 1 2017 2019 2018 163 60323

134、6.SH 2019 Non-GAAP -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 12% 9% 59% 16% 0% 2% 1% 1% GSM/GPRS WCDMA/HSPA LTE LPWA 5G GNSS Wi-Fi EVB -100% -50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 0 50 100 150 200 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 164 603236.SHDCM WiF

135、i T-BOX /APP OBD 泵4G罫 OTA 15%+ 50%+ 飬 Tier1 165 603236.SHPOS POS POS Strategy Analytics 20162,00020225,710 2016 43% 86% 2017 375.52 202.93 46.06%28.80% Better Than Cash Alliance 2020 28% 30% 3% 7% 18% 30% 52% 74% 92% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019E 2020E 16

136、6 603236.SH 2016 -2020 临 9.1%2020 5,400 3000500 20%塱 40%3.940001600 201641003900滻 5,000-6,000 IC 4,000-5,000 202060%2400 59% 20% 50% 167 603236.SH 168 PE Band 603236.SH FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 2,701 4,130 5,747 7,945 10,690 63% 53% 39% 38% 35% 20% 21% - - - 180 148 262 423 623 121

137、% -18% 77% 62% 47% PE 118 144 81 50 34 720 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 31.26X 59.44X 87.63X 115.82X 144X 169 300308.SZIDC/5G 40G QSFP+ 37% 400G QSFP-DD FR4 1998 2000 2003 2008 2012 2014 20171987 繤 豸 + 2018 2020 170 3003

138、08.SZ % 2019 % 21% 76% 1% 1% 1% 10G/40G 25G/100G/400G / -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400% 1600% 1800% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 -200% 0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 1200% 1400% 1600% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 20

139、17 2018 2019 171 PE Band 300308.SZ 720 (20) 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 Jan -15 Ma r-1 5 Ma y-1 5 Jul -15 Sep -15 No v-15 Jan -16 Ma r-1 6 Ma y-1 6 Jul -16 Sep -16 No v-16 Jan -17 Ma r-1 7 Ma y-1 7 Jul -17 Sep -17 No v-17 Jan -18 Ma r-1 8 Ma y-1 8 Jul -18 Sep -18 No v-18 Jan -19 Ma r-1 9 Ma y-1 9

140、Jul -19 Sep -19 No v-19 Jan -20 Ma r-2 0 Ma y-2 0 Jul -20 18.3X 50.58X 82.86X 115.14X 147.42X FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 5,156 4,758 7,058 8,916 10,969 119% -8% 48% 26% 23% 27% 27% 29% 29% 29% 623 513 920 1,168 1,461 -71% 566% 105% 44% 27% PE 71 86 48 38 30 172 300502.SZ 200G 2CWDM4

141、QSFP-DD A 2012 2014 20162008 SFP56-DD 100G400G DR4 2017 2020 2011 173 300502.SZ % 2019 % 94% 4% 2% PON -200% -100% 0% 100% 200% 300% 400% 500% 600% 700% 0 50 100 150 200 250 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 1,400 2011 201

142、2 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 174 PE Band 300502.SZ 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 760 1,165 2,026 2,927 3,934 -13% 53% 74% 44% 34% 20% 35% 36% 36% 35% 32 213 436 630 803 -71% 566% 105% 44% 27% PE 7

143、46 112 55 38 30 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 25.4X 48.3X 71.2X 94.09X 116.99X 175 600845.SHIDC 1978 1996 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2006 2010 2014 2016 2017 2019 2020 176 600845.SH % 2019 % 66.7% 30.0% 豸 -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000 -20% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80

144、% 100% 120% 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 (%) 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 177 PE Band 600845.SH 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 5,471 6,849 8,410 10,175 12,130 15% 25% 23% 21% 19% 28% 30% 33% 33% 33% 669 879 1,320 1,587 1,928 57% 31% 50% 2

145、0% 21% PE 98 75 50 41 34 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Dec-14 Fe b-1 5 Ap r-15 Ju n-1 5 Au g-15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-1 6 Ap r-16 Ju n-1 6 Au g-16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-1 7 Ap r-17 Ju n-1 7 Au g-17 Oct -17 Dec-17 Fe b-1 8 Ap r-18 Jun -18 Au g-18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-1 9 Ap r-19 Ju n-1 9 Au g-19 Oct -19 Dec-1

146、9 Fe b-2 0 Ap r-20 Jun -20 28.55X 37.41X 46.27X 55.12X 63.98X 178 300383.SZIDC IDC 1999 2001 2007 2008 2009 2010 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 ISO 4100 ISO27001 AWS 飬 AWS 2009-2010 IDC 2018 IDC AWS ISP 179 300383.SZ % 2019 % 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 300% 350% 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6

147、,000 7,000 8,000 (%) 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 250% 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) 73.4% 22.0% IDC IDC 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 180 PE Band 300383.SZ 720 FY 2018 FY 2019 FY 2020E FY 2021E FY 2022E 6,023 7,0

148、97 8,804 10,813 13,176 48% 18% 24% 23% 22% 21% 22% 20% 21% 22% 667 825 959 1,248 1,666 53% 24% 16% 30% 34% PE 62 50 43 33 25 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 Dec-14 Fe b-1 5 Ap r-15 Ju n-1 5 Au g-15 Oct -15 Dec-15 Fe b-1 6 Ap r-16 Ju n-1 6 Au g-16 Oct -16 Dec-16 Fe b-1 7 Ap r-17 Ju n-1 7 Au g-17 Oct -17

149、Dec-17 Fe b-1 8 Ap r-18 Ju n-1 8 Au g-18 Oct -18 Dec-18 Fe b-1 9 Ap r-19 Ju n-1 9 Au g-19 Oct -19 Dec-19 Fe b-2 0 Ap r-20 Ju n-2 0 31.9X 43.06X 54.22X 65.38X 76.54X THANK YOU S1010510120041 S1010517080001 S1010520020001 iii 彨 丽CLSA group of companies Z20374000CLSA Limited CL Securities Taiwan Co., L

150、td.CLSA Australia Pty Ltd.350159CLSA group of companiesCLSA Americas, LLCCLSA AmericasCLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.198703750WCLSA Europe BV CLSA UKCLSA India Private Limited400021Nariman PointDalamal House 8绰+91-22-66505050+91-22- 22840271U67120MH1994PLC083118INZ000001735INM000010619INH000001113PT CLSA Se

151、kuritas Indonesia CLSA Securities Japan Co., Ltd.CLSA Securities Korea Ltd.CLSA Securities Malaysia Sdn BhdCLSA Philippines Inc.CLSA Securities (Thailand) Limited CLSA group of companiesCLSA Americas193415a-6CLSA Americas 潫顣CLSA group of companiesCLSA Americas CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.s.4A1 2005333435

152、 涨252736CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.CLSA Singapore Pte Ltd.绰+65 6416 7888MCI (P) 086/12/2019 潫顣 淢CLSA UKCLSA Europe BVCLSA UK CLSA Europe BV 涨綨漰飬 档CLSA UKCLSA Europe BVII汻 CLSA Australia Pty Ltd (CAPL) (53 139 992 331/350159) CHI-X塣CAPL CAPL2001761G涨CAPL ASX All OrdinariesCAPL 沢 鲢 棬治飬 档 漰淢612 淢612 A300 500 20% 5%20% -10%5% 10% 10% -10%10% 10% 2020725

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