电气设备行业：储能~能源革命必经之路多元化需求百花齐放-20200726[32页].pdf

1、 | 20200726 豸 - +; 飬 硢绯罫 洢 5GIDC ; 鲻 IDC CNESA 20202024 绯 5565%20192024 2764435588 2020 绯 CNESA 绯 2024 5565% 2 20192024绯27.6444.25GW 1/wh 276.4442.555.388.5 5G20212023 1215GWh 100 20203 5G 20 5G 20205G 5G2022壬 1105G 20212023 1215GWh 0.7 /w 100 5G+ +IDC 跢 5G+ IDC 迪 IDC IDC + 飺+ 豸 S0680518030001 S0680

2、520030005 1豸 2020-07-23 2豸 2020-07-19 3豸6 2020-07-12 -16% 0% 16% 32% 48% 64% 2019-07 2019-11 2020-03 2020-07 豸 300 20200726 P.2 EPS P E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 300068 0.42 25.46 300274 0.61 0.73 0.97 1.09 31.90 26.66 20.06 17.85 601727 0.23 0.26 0.30 0.34 23.35 20.65 17.90 15

3、.79 pOqPnNoRoRpNvNrOrNtMpM9PbP7NmOpPoMnNfQoOrOiNoMoR9PrRvMuOoNoOxNpNoN 20200726 P.3 裬 . 5 1.1 崢棬 . 8 1.2 崢 . 10 5GIDC+ . 11 2.1 . 12 2.2 飬 . 17 2.3 BIPV . 20 2.4 5G . 21 2.5 IDC . 25 2.6 + . 26 . 29 3.1 . 29 3.2 绯 . 29 3.3 豸 . 30 . 31 120MW/80MWh$/kwh . 5 2 . 5 3绯 . 6 4绯 . 7 5绯GW . 7 6糧5MW/5MWh豸 . 8

4、 7 . 8 81.5 . 9 9 . 9 10仯 . 10 11 . 10 12 . 11 13绷 . 11 142019 . 12 15 . 13 16 . 13 17 . 14 18 . 14 192020 . 15 202020+ . 16 21绯 . 17 22 . 17 23 . 17 24 . 18 20200726 P.4 25 . 19 26糧 . 19 27 . 20 28 . 20 29+ . 21 30 5G . 21 315G . 21 322020 . 22 332020-20225G轫 . 22 345G . 23 35 . 23 362020 . 24 37 .

5、 24 38IDC . 25 39 . 25 40 . 26 412025/2030 . 27 42 . 28 432025/2030 GWh . 28 44 . 29 45 . 29 46 . 30 47 . 30 48Mini . 30 20200726 P.5 裬 洢顣 棬 缰+ 缼 绯绯 201920MW/80MWh331/kwh 2030 20MW/80MWh165/kwh201950% 索索 2018 索85% 120MW/80MWh$/kwh 2 20203600+ 25 55 1.87 668711 + 2019 89.5% 2018 崢CNESA2018 绯 1.02GW/2

6、.91GWh 2017 2.6 2019 绯 1.71GW 208 175 161 148 135 122 109 95 89 83 77 72 68 38 35 32 30 29 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 24 364 331 304 282 261 240 221 203 194 186 179 172 165 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 Battery rack Balance of System Else 20200726 P.6 2019 绯 9.52GW 46.2%绯 CNESA 2019 12 184.6GW 1.9% 171

7、.0GW 0.2%绯 9.5GW 46.2% 3.1GW 10.7%2019 201991.6% 3绯 CNESA 2019绯1.71GW59.4%绯 绯80%CNESA 201932.4GW17.6% 3.6%30.3GW1.0%绯 1.7096GW59.4%绯 20152019绯79.7% 2.93 6.63 9.52 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2017 2018 2019 绯GW 绯 20200726 P.7 4绯 CNESA 飬2024绯 15.524GW 绯CNESA 2020绯2.73GW 202415.53GW 55%

8、20203.1GW2024 23.8GW65% 5绯GW CNESA 20192024276443 5588PCS缯豸 棬 1.2 /wh 2 20192024 绯 27.6444.25( )GW 1/wh276.4442.5 55.388.5 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2017 2018 2019 绯GW 绯 2.7 15.5 3.1 24 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 2019 2020E 2024E 20200726 P.8 6糧5MW/5MWh豸 糧5MW/5MWh豸 /wh 1.192 2

9、020/7/16 1.233 2020/7/16 7 绯GW 2019 1.7 2024E- 15.5 2024E- 23.8 h 2 20192024绯GWh 2024E- 27.64 2024E- 44.25 20192024绯GWh 2024E- 5.53 2024E- 8.85 /wh 1 20192024绯 2024E- 276.41 2024E- 442.50 20192024绯 2024E- 55.28 2024E- 88.50 CNESA 1.1 崢棬 +飬 赲 2018 IPCC 1.5 20200726 P.9 2030201045% 2050 81.5 ipcc Laza

10、rd 20092019 70% 89% 9 Lazard 硱硱 硢+ 20200726 P.10 硱硱 10仯 BP 硢绯 罫 洢洢 11 1.2 崢 磬 豸 豸5G 鲻 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 緢 20200726 P.11 12 + + 5G+ IDC+ + 13绷 5GIDC+ 20200726 P.12 2.1 20% 20193.1% 5.5%2019 14.2% 12.1%2019 20%粨 142019 2019 21.3% 20.9% 20.2% 19.7% 1

11、8.8% 16.9% 16.7% 16.3% 16.2% 13.1% 13.0% 12.5% 12.3% 12.0% 12.0% 11.7% 11.1% 11.1% 8.7% 8.6% 7.8% 7.4% 6.8% 6.7% 6.5% 5.6% 5.6% 5.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.0% 20200726 P.13 壺1 23 15 16 + 缼绯 + Lazard2019+ + 20200726 P.14 17 lazard 2020519 壬 廯硢索 2020 衱 18 2020/5/19 廯硢 索 2020/6/18 2020 衣 20200726 P.15 192020 2020

12、 1 5% 2020硢 壩 裬裬 衣 跽 5G 2.5 豸 5G 3 糡豸 索 繦 0.5 2 ; 糧索壬 ; 糡索 涨; 糡糧 ; 糡 ; 索 0.55 /kWh 2020 裬 緢 2020 縺 15-20%顣裬 2020 20% 2 衣 2020 索 10 2020 縺 15-20%顣 缯33 +迪 +缯 613缯33 192.1GW220MW 14 0.95GW 162MW缯 + 20200726 P.16 202020+ 2020+ MW 10 10MWh 100 / + 100 5MW/5MWh 100 / 索 / / 廯 100 / 塰廯 100 / + 100 / + 300 /

13、 100 / 200 / / 1.25MW/1.5MWh 豸 罨 150 / 100 6MW/12MWh 50 / 100 5MW/10MWh 200 / 200 / / 90 / 2100 220 2020+ MW 糡 100 10MW/40MWh 糡 50.6 / 100 / 索 101.2 22.68MW/90.70MWh 索 50 糡 50 10MW/10MWh 索 / 索 50 10MW/10MWh 100 20MW/20MWh 索 50 10MW/10MWh 糡 150 / 糡 50 / 100 10MWh / / 951.8 162.68 20200726 P.17 2.2 飬

14、绯 簲 21绯 廪 档 顱 22 23 20200726 P.18 20206 顣 123 4567 5G 8910 20202471000 24 1 2 7 3 滮 12 4 踲硢硢硢5 5 輼 6 衰 7 5G 5G 5G+ 8 豸 9 12 10 廯 4 跶 5G/ 壬 20200726 P.19 顣 糧 糧 25 26糧 4 3 20200726 P.20 4 绯 27 飬 2.3 BIPV 裬1 23+ 28 +2019 Solar Roof 40% BIPV Powerwall 洢 + 20200726 P.21 29+ BIPV 缤SGIP 2011 SGIP Wood Mack

15、enzie棬 2020212MW2019133MW59 BIPV 2.4 5G 磬20205G201966 5G 5G20195G200010000 5G20205 5G5560.94G7.57 30 5G 315G wind wind 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 () 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 2020-01 2020-02 2020-03 2020-04 2020-05 :5G :4

16、G 20200726 P.22 5G 罨2020 60 2020 3 5G 205G滮2020 5G20205G1803 337.6%5G豸904 699 漰 55 20205G 602019/202055G13 /25 322020 371 57.7% 28.9% 11.1% 2.2% & 328 - - - - 699 2020-20225G270 5G2022壬110 1500 2020-2022 270 332020-20225G轫 5G 4G 5G 4G 4G85G 1284G380壬5G 6-121505GPCB 13 70 90 110 80 55 42 221 1,107 1,

17、323 1,504 1,017 650 462 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 0 40 80 120 160 200 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E () () 20200726 P.23 15 35 5G 3000W 4000W4G 345G 豸 /W /W BBU AAU BBU AAU BBU5900+AAU5612 330 850 2880 1100 1000 4100 BBU5900+AAU5613 330 950 3180 1100 1220 4760 V9200+A9611 S35 3

18、15 980 3255 700 1400 4900 V9200+A9611 S26 315 910 3045 700 1250 4450 4G 250 350 1300 350 500 1850 5G 615kwh 20212023 1215GWh 100 豸 23 30005000w615kwh5G 20212023 1215GWh 0.7 /w 100 35 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 5G 60 90 110 80 55 42 -w 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 3000 -w 5000 5000 5000 5000 500

19、0 5000 -h 2 2 2 2 2 2 -h 3 3 3 3 3 3 -kwh 6 6 6 6 6 6 -kwh 15 15 15 15 15 15 -GWh 4 5 7 5 3 3 -GWh 9 14 17 12 8 6 - 25.2 37.8 46.2 33.6 23.1 17.6 - 63.0 94.5 115.5 84.0 57.8 44.1 5G 200 160 140 120 100 kwh 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5 GWh 3 2.4 2.1 1.8 1.5 21.0 16.8 14.7 12.6 10.5 5G-GWh 4 8 9 7 5 4 5G-GWh 9

20、 17 19 14 10 8 5G- 25.2 58.8 63.0 48.3 35.7 28.1 5G- 63.0 115.5 132.3 98.7 70.4 54.6 20200726 P.24 2018 2019 5.5GWh71.9% 2020 4GWh2020 3 1.95GWh2GWh顣 0.7 /Wh 362020 GWh /Wh 0.368 18.85% 2.434 0.66 0.311 15.94% 2.118 0.68 0.283 14.49% 2.061 0.73 0.255 13.04% 1.790 0.70 0.226 11.59% 1.575 0.70 躵 0.198

21、 10.14% 1.430 0.72 0.170 8.70% 1.216 0.72 0.142 7.25% 1.054 0.74 1.95 100.00% 13.68 0.70 5G 37 2019 20202021 2020 2020 1 2 3 4 緫 5 6 躵 7 8 飬 20200726 P.25 2.5 IDC 5G+IDC迪5G 2020 3 DOU 9.5GW/30.6%2006 202120.5ZB 95% 5G IDC 2022IDC3200 29% 38IDC IDCIDC 豸 IDC裬IDC IDC 2011 2016 10%20171300 97620181500 2

22、%20254% 39 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E IDC 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 2018 2019 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 20200726 P.26 崻 IDC IDC IDC 20177 IDC OVH 5000 2420167EquinixTeleci

23、tyUPS 10%20164 豸崻IDC IT崻 +İ UPS硢HVDC 緽緽+ IDC 40 ODCC飬 UPS FusionPower ups壬SmartLi 黯UPS UPSUPS 2.6 + 203015202019123 滮2021-2035壩2025 25% 2030 40% 2025/2030 3500/3800875/1520 202565620301520 20200726 P.27 2025 4:12:120303:11.5:12025/2030 656/152042% 70%2025/2030131/355 412025/2030 2019 2020E 2021E 202

24、5E 2030E 123.4 162.4 203.1 875 1520 9.6 6.0 5.5 4.0 3.0 12.9 27.1 36.9 218.8 506.7 42% 45% 50% 60% 70% 5.4 12.2 18.5 131.3 354.7 58% 55% 50% 40% 30% 7.5 14.9 18.5 87.5 152.0 5.5 4.0 3.0 2.0 1.5 22.6 40.6 67.7 437.5 1013.3 35.5 67.7 104.6 656.3 1520.0 GGIIEVCIPA Tesla 2020 4000 5TeslaPorsche 250kW270

25、kW + 1. 2. 棻2019 壬磬 3. 索磬 20200726 P.28 42 磬 2025/2030 5.95/15.4GWh 2025 2030 财 3040 80100 蹫 50KW 10KW 40% 1 2025 2030 0.5 /kwh 10%/20%/30%20252.98/5.95/8.93 GWh2030 7.70/15.40/23.11 GWh0.5/kwh2025 2030财304080100 432025/2030 GWh 2025 2030 GWh 10% 2.63 7.09 20% 5.25 14.19 30% 7.88 21.28 GWh 10% 0.35

26、0.61 20% 0.70 1.22 30% 1.05 1.82 GWh 10% 2.98 7.70 20% 5.95 15.40 30% 8.93 23.11 10% 14.9 38.5 20% 29.75 77 30% 44.65 115.55 20200726 P.29 5GIDC 缼绯 洢+ Lazard2019+ + IDC5G壬 5G+IDC迪 3.1 2019 5.42 19.62 2.70137.13%40 5G 顣 2017 豸2019 豸 2.6 5G 44 45 wind wind 3.2 绯 2019 5.4341.77% 0.5C 4C 15% 10% -100% -

27、50% 0% 50% 100% 150% 200% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 (%) (%) -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (%) 20200726 P.30 46 47 wind wind 3.3 豸 20122017 齨 8GWh20192019 319 100MWh 飬 48Mini -40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

28、 80% 100% 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020Q1 (%) (%) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200726 P.31 裬20192024 276.4442.5 55.388.5 20212023 100 20200726 P.32 浱 档 , 顣 漰 顰 棬 淢 6 A 300 500 15% 5%15% -5%+5% 5% 10% -10%+10% 10% 263 100032 棺010-57671718 868One56 110 200120 绰021-38934111 1115 330038 棺0791-86281485 10024 518033