2020BCS-北京网络安全大会：一个文科生对大数据和数字经济的理解.pdf

1、一个文科生对大数据和数字经济的理解唐杰哈尔滨工业大学（深圳）经管学院教授#page#背景：科学革命：传统科技革命的不确定性：方向明确与生规模化生产到认产方式变革的不确定；知创造与平台化比较优势的不确定性：全球化修论中掌控的谁更便宜；创新引领与跟随获利的不确定性：要素廉价-规模追赶-产品廉可模仿但能持续的商业模式高度不确定；价的传统方式失效专统政府行为对创新影响的不确定创新增长具有与赶超型经性：基础设施建设-三通一平-引进技术创造市济完全不同的经济社会结场可模仿可预期，创新驱动成本高，不可简单预期。构#page#一、全球竞争核心是以研究开发控制产业链Figure O.13Value Added

2、of Services in Manufacturing,1970s vs.the 21st CenturyShareof products totalvalue added21st-century value chain1970svalue chainR&DMarketingEmbeddedservicesDesignComponentsmanufacturingAssemblyProductionPreproductionPostproductionNote:Figure adapts the“smile curvedepiction of the changes in value add

3、ed across different stages ofbringingamanufactured product to market，as first proposedcirca 1992byAcer Inc.founderStan Shih:foramore detailed discussion，see Baldwin（2012）.R&D=researchanddevelopment.“Embeddedservices”referstoservices deliveredthrough the manufactured good(forexample，appsonamobile pho

4、ne）.#page#二、产业创新的前沿高度依赖于数据技术能五INDUSTRY4.0INDUSTRY3.0INDUSTRY2.0INDUSTRY 1.0Advanced roboticsInformationandMechanization.steamMassproduction，InternetofThings，communicationassembly line，power.weavingloom3-Dprintingtechnologieselectricalenergy8尚LateLateLateToday20t18t开#page#三、AI是数字技术结晶，是改造现有产业的基石（麦肯锡AP

5、RIL2018）NOTES FROM THE AI FRONTIER INSIGHTS FROM HUNDREDS OF USE CASESAl has the potential to create annualvalue across sectors totaling $3.5 trillion to $5.8 trillion，or 40 percent of theoverall potential impact from all analytics techniquesAl impactSbilion700-Retail600Transport500and logisticsPubl

6、ic andTravelsocialsector400ConsumerAutomotiveHealth-caresystemspackagedgoodsBankingandassembly300and servicesHightechAdvancedelectronics/Basicmaterialssemiconductors200InsuranceAgricultureD-Oil andgasChemicals100AerospacePharmaceuticalsMedia andand defenseandmedicalproductsentertainmentO455002025303