【研报】电力设备新能源行业2021年投资策略：新能源碳中和背景下的最强赛道-20201230（60页）.pdf

1、新能源：碳中和背景下的最强赛道 -10% 15% 40% 65% 90% 10-1901-2005-2008-20 电力设备新能源沪深300 投资观点 原点资产 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500 5000 23456789101112 201820192020 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 2020E2021E 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 19/01 19/02 19/03 19/04 19/05 19/06 19/07 19/08 19/09 19/10 19/11 19/12 20/01 20/

2、02 20/03 20/04 20/05 20/06 20/07 20/08 20/09 20/10 20/11 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 2020E2021E 216.96GW 333.26GW 2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3 3.2 3.4 3.6 19/01 19/02 19/03 19/04 19/05 19/06 19/07 19/08 19/09 19/10 19/11 19/12 20/01 20/02 20/03 20/04 20/05 20/06 20/07 20/08 20/09 20/10 20/11 158mm 166mm 0 5

3、0 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 2020E2021E 291.3GW 380.65GW 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 2020E2021E 286.6GW 398.6GW 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 19/01 19/02 19/03 19/04 19/05 19/06 19/07 19/08 19/09 19/10 19/11 19/12 20/01 20/02 20/03 20/04 20/05 20/06 20/07 20/08 20/09 20/10 20/11 158mm 166mm

4、0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 19/01 19/02 19/03 19/04 19/05 19/06 19/07 19/08 19/09 19/10 19/11 19/12 20/01 20/02 20/03 20/04 20/05 20/06 20/07 20/08 20/09 20/10 20/11 PERC 0 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 2020E2021E 85.37% 88.97% 92.00% 45.44% 52.59% 54.52% 26.85% 33.36% 31.61% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50

5、% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 20192020E2021E CR10 CR2 CR1 21.5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 3.2mm2.5mm2mm 531 20/20% 3520% 4500 7000 4000 4500 5000 5500 6000 6500 7000 7500 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 0 20 40 60 80 100 20192020E2021E2022E2023E2025E P N-PERT/TOPCon 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 2014201520162017201

6、82019 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 201120122013201420152016201720182019 0 30 60 90 120 2020E2021E2022E 166182210 0 30 60 90 120 2020E2021E2022E 166182210 62.06% 68.13% 71.18% 26.37% 29.34% 36.32% 13.50% 15.18% 22.37% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 20192020E2021E CR5 CR2 CR1 81.98% 82.50