贝莱德（BlackRock）：2018年第四季度投资展望（英文版）（10页）.pdf

1、Global Investment Outlook Q4 2018 MKTG1018A-618405-1917422 GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK SUMMARY2 Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Elga Bartsch Head of Economic and Markets Research BlackRock Investment Institute Isabelle Mateos y Lago Chief Multi-Asset Strategist BlackR

2、ock Investment Institute Jeff Rosenberg Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Richard Turnill Global Chief Investment Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute SETTING THE SCENE . 3 Macro outlook and themes EM UNDER PRESSURE .48 EM downdraft EM spillover debate Flows and China

3、 Fixed income Equities MARKETS . 9 Assets in brief We revisit our 2018 investment themes and take a deep dive into the prospects for emerging market (EM) assets after an unexpectedly drawn-out selloff. Themes: We see the steady global expansion rolling on, underpinned by above-trend U.S. growth. Yet

4、 the range of potential economic outcomes is widening. Stimulus-fueled surprises and productivity gains could boost growth and risk assets, whereas escalating trade disputes and rising price pressures could create downside risks. Gradual increases in U.S. rates are tightening financial conditions gl

5、obally, and have contributed to bouts of volatility and sharply depreciating EM currencies. This argues for a greater focus on making portfolios more resilient to downside shocks. EM under pressure: The EM world has been hit by a series of country-specific shocks and tightening financial conditions

6、pressuring those with the greatest external vulnerabilities. This was not how we envisioned the EM story playing out this year. We see room for a recovery, especially in equities. Chinas economy looks resilient, EM fundamentals are generally robust, and we may be near a peak in idiosyncratic risks.