贝莱德（BlackRock）：2018年第四季全球投资展望（英文版）(10页).pdf

1、Global Investment Outlook Q4 2018 BII0918U/E-616388-1913253 FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS. FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S. GLOBAL INVESTMENT OUTLOOK SUMMARY2 Kate Moore Chief Equity Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Elga Bartsch Head of Econom

2、ic and Markets Research BlackRock Investment Institute Isabelle Mateos y Lago Chief Multi-Asset Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Jeff Rosenberg Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Richard Turnill Global Chief Investment Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute SETT

3、ING THE SCENE . 3 Macro outlook and themes EM UNDER PRESSURE .48 EM downdraft EM spillover debate Flows and China Fixed income Equities MARKETS . 9 Assets in brief We revisit our 2018 investment themes and take a deep dive into the prospects for emerging market (EM) assets after an unexpectedly draw

4、n-out selloff. Themes: We see the steady global expansion rolling on, underpinned by above-trend U.S. growth. Yet the range of potential economic outcomes is widening. Stimulus-fueled surprises and productivity gains could boost growth and risk assets, whereas escalating trade disputes and rising pr

5、ice pressures could create downside risks. Gradual increases in U.S. rates are tightening financial conditions globally, and have contributed to bouts of volatility and sharply depreciating EM currencies. This argues for a greater focus on making portfolios more resilient to downside shocks. EM unde

6、r pressure: The EM world has been hit by a series of country-specific shocks and tightening financial conditions pressuring those with the greatest external vulnerabilities. This was not how we envisioned the EM story playing out this year. We see room for a recovery, especially in equities. Chinas