BelferCenter-2017年人工智能与国家安全报告英文-2017.7-132页（132页）.pdf

1、STUDY JULY 2017 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Greg Allen Taniel Chan A study on behalf of Dr. Jason Matheny, Director of the U.S. Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity (IARPA) BE L F E R CENTER STUDY Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs Harvard Kennedy Schoo

2、l 79 JFK Street Cambridge, MA 02138 www.belfercenter.org Statements and views expressed in this report are solely those of the authors and do not imply endorsement by Harvard University, Harvard Kennedy School, the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, or IARPA. Design attacks can be

3、defended In 1945, fighter aircraft were roughly 50 times as expensive as a new civilian car By WW2, only sophisticated orgs. could match state of the art in aero- space tech. One of the first passenger airlines used reconfigured WW1 bombers Factories appear similar to other industry and can be conce

4、aled Cyber Cyber can damage physical infrastruc- ture and steal key info. but less assured Even terrorists and criminals can afford quite useful capabilities Low-end attacks require minimal expertise; high-end reserved for states Commercial IT sys- tems can be used for attacks; similar skills in dem

5、and for civil/military Even sensitive national security systems are routinely infiltrated without detection Biotech Natural pandemics have killed tens of millions; bioweapons could also Equipment is cheap, though expertise can be expensive Though different now, at first relatively few people had nee

6、ded expertise Biopharma and medical industries need similar equip- ment and expertise as bioweapons Weaponization facilities difficult to distinguish from commercial LowModerateHigh 44 Artificial Intelligence and National Security Government Technology Management Approach In what is admittedly (and