标普全球（S&ampP Global）：2021年不同国家全球银行展望报告-2009年以来银行面临的最严峻考验（英文版）.pdf

1、 PRIMARY CONTACT Gavin Gunning Melbourne +61-3-9631-2092 Emmanuel Volland Paris +33-14-420-6696 Alexandre Birry London +44-20-7176-7108 SECONDARY CONTACTS Brendan Browne New York +1-212-438-7399 Cynthia Cohen Freue Buenos Aires +54-11-4891-2161 Giles Edwards London +44-20-7176-7014 Elena Iparraguirr

2、e Madrid +34-91-389-6963 Osman Sattar London +44-20-7176-7198 Contacts continued on page 107 Global Banks Country-By-Country 2021 Outlook: Toughest Test For Banks Since 2009 November 17, 2020 Global Banking Outlook Nov. 17, 2020 2 Key Takeaways A key risk is that economic disruption from COVID-19 ge

3、ts worse or lasts longer than our base case of a sustainable economic recovery in 2021 and a widely available vaccine by mid-2021. Additional tests to banks include overhangs from forbearance and other public supports, anticipated higher corporate insolvencies, and stress in property. We believe man

4、y banking jurisdictions globally will not recover to pre-pandemic financial strength until 2023 or beyond. This year has been hard for banks. Next year may be even harder. S and “Global Debt Leverage: Risks Rise, But Near-Term Crisis Unlikely, Oct. 27, 2020), however, then we can plausibly expect a

5、negative step-change in bank credit quality in 2021. Global Banking Outlook Nov. 17, 2020 4 The health crisis and consequent economic recovery is likely to continue to be variable across geographies in 2021. Several noteworthy differences are already evident heading toward 2021 (see chart 2). In som

6、e high income economies (mainly in Asia) the virus is currently contained with zero (or close to zero) new infections and deaths; however, significant constraints on borders, mobility, and social gatherings will continue to hinder the economic recovery. In some other high income economies, notably t