2020 风险变化本质分析报告 - GUY（英文版）.pdf

1、The Changing Nature of Risk August 2019 The Changing Nature of RiskGUY CARPENTER3 Contents Executive Summary 5 (Re)insurance Resolve 8 Changing Views of Risk 12 A Glimpse Into the Future 22 Conclusion 27 August 2019 The Changing Nature of RiskGUY CARPENTER5 Executive Summary The global risk landscap

2、e is changing rapidly. Cursory glances at studies conducted over the last decade on the risks that have commandeered businesses and (re)insurers agendas show that economic concerns dominated 10 years ago (at the height of the financial crisis) while technology, extreme weather and climate change pre

3、vail today. The last two factors in particular should come as no surprise given the number of catastrophes that devastated communities worldwide in 2017 and 2018. The accumulation of losses from a range of diverse perils during this time has brought an end to years of soft (re)insurance market condi

4、tions. The series of hurricane and typhoon strikes in the United States (2017/2018) and Japan (2018) cost the sector tens of billions of dollars. Although the loss potential associated with such “peak” peril events is monitored closely by risk carriers, the emergence of complex loss components for m

5、ost of these storms has surprised the market as losses continue to develop adversely. Costs for “non-peak” perils have also made a significant contribution to industry losses, with unprecedented wildfire costs in California being the most arresting. Ominously, the specter of climate change points to

6、 a future that will see only more frequent and severe weather events. Risk models will need to be recalibrated to accommodate this. If the last two years provide any sort of template for what can be expected in years to come, loss development for major events will be uncertain and the scale and seve