贝莱德投资研究所：2020年年中全球展望报告（英文版）（16页）.pdf

1、BlackRock Investment Institute FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION IN THE U.S., CANADA, HONG KONG, SINGAPORE AND AUSTRALIA. FOR INSTITUTIONAL, PROFESSIONAL, QUALIFIED INVESTORS AND QUALIFIED CLIENTS IN OTHER PERMITTED COUNTRIES. The future is running at us 2020 midyear outlook BIIH0620U-1222313-1/16 2 Contents

2、2 The future is running at us. The coronavirus shock is accelerating structural trends in inequality, globalization, macro policy and sustainability. This is fundamentally reshaping the investment landscape and will be key to investor outcomes. Our three new investment themes Activity restart, Polic

3、y revolution and Real resilience are meant to reflect the rapidly changing world. The most important action investors need to take today, in our view, is to review their strategic asset allocation to ensure portfolios are resilient to the supercharged trends. Philipp Hildebrand Vice Chairman BlackRo

4、ck First words Summary Introduction Themes Activity restart Policy revolution Real resilience 2-4 2 3-4 5-7 5 6 7 2020 midyear outlook Summary Jean Boivin Head BlackRock Investment Institute Elga Bartsch Head of Macro Research BlackRock Investment Institute Mike Pyle Global Chief Investment Strategi

5、st BlackRock Investment Institute Scott Thiel Chief Fixed Income Strategist BlackRock Investment Institute Forum focus Geopolitics Emerging world Asset allocation Strategic views Tactical views 8-9 8 9 10-15 10-13 14-15 The initial Covid-19 contraction is larger than the great financial crisis, but

6、we believe its cumulative impact on the economy will likely be less as long as the policy response remains strong enough to cushion the blow. Normal business cycle dynamics do not apply, so we are tracking three signposts: how successful economies are at restarting activity while controlling the vir