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2020年全球电动车展望报告 - 国际能源署(英文版)(276页).pdf

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2020年全球电动车展望报告 - 国际能源署(英文版)(276页).pdf

1、Global EV Outlook 2020 Entering the decade of electric drive? Global EV Outlook 2020 Abstract PAGE | 2 IEA. All rights reserved. Abstract The Global EV Outlook is an annual publication that identifies and discusses recent developments in electric mobility across the globe. It is developed with the s

2、upport of the members of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI). Combining historical analysis with projections to 2030, the report examines key areas of interest such as electric vehicle and charging infrastructure deployment, ownership cost, energy use, carbon dioxide emissions and battery materia

3、l demand. This edition features case studies on transit bus electrification in Kolkata (India), Shenzhen (China), Santiago (Chile) and Helsinki (Finland). The report includes policy recommendations that incorporate learning from frontrunner markets to inform policy makers and stakeholders that consi

4、der policy frameworks and market systems for electric vehicle adoption. This edition also features an update on the performance and costs of batteries. It further extends the life cycle analysis conducted in Global EV Outlook 2019, assessing the technologies and policies that will be needed to ensur

5、e that EV battery end-of-life treatment contributes to the fullest extent to sustainability and CO2 emissions reductions objectives. Finally, it analyses how off-peak electricity demand charging, dynamic controlled charging (V1G) and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) could mitigate the impact of EVs on peak dem

6、and, facilitate the integration of variable renewables and reduce electricity generation capacity needs. Global EV Outlook 2020 Acknowledgements PAGE | 3 IEA. All rights reserved. Acknowledgements The Global EV Outlook 2020 was prepared by the Energy Technology Policy (ETP) Division of the Directora

7、te of Sustainability, Technology and Outlooks (STO) of the International Energy Agency (IEA), under the direction of Timur Gl, Head of the ETP Division. Marine Gorner co-ordinated the analysis and production of the report. This report was collectively developed by (in alphabetical order): Thibaut Ab

8、ergel, Till Bunsen, Marine Gorner, Pierre Leduc, Sarbojit Pal, Leonardo Paoli, Seshadri Raghavan, Jacopo Tattini, Jacob Teter, Sadanand Wachche and Per-Anders Widell. Hanjiro Ambrose, Jessica Dunn and Margaret Slattery, from the University of California Davis, supported with primary research, drafti

9、ng and other contributions to Chapter 4. Shahmeer Mohsin (Institut Polytechnique de Grenoble) also provided valuable contributions. The development of this analysis benefited from support provided by the following IEA colleagues: Nicolas Beltran Achury, Hiroyuki Fukui, Maximilian Jarrett, George Kam

10、iya, Rebecca McKimm, Alison Pridmore, Alan Searl, Siddharth Singh, Lei Xiang, Chengwu Xu and Xiaotong Yang on the national and regional policy sections in Chapter 2; George Kamiya on the micromobility and aviation sections in Chapter 1; Jose Miguel Bermundez Menendez on the fuel cell electric vehicl

11、es section in Chapter 1; Zoe Hungerford on Chapter 5. Mechthild Wrsdrfer, Director of STO, provided encouragement and support throughout the project. Valuable comments and feedback were also provided by other senior management and colleagues within the IEA, in particular Keisuke Sadamori, Laszlo Var

12、ro, Apostolos Petropoulos, Julien Armijo and Zoe Hungerford. The report was edited by Debra Justus. Sebastin Galarza Surez (Centro Mario Molina Chile); Alekhya Datta, Ram Krishnan and Shashank Vyas (TERI); Preet Gill, Scott Moura, Lin Osseiran and Raja Sengupta (University of California Berkeley); X

13、iuli Zhang (University of California Davis); Reijo Mkinen, Tommi Muona, Marko Paakkinen and Mikko Pihlatie (VTT Finland); Rakhi Basu, Annika Berlin and Chen Yang (World Bank) and Ivan Jaques (World Bank/ESMAP) provided essential inputs and review for the development of the electric bus section in Ch

14、apter 2. The members of Project ReCell (EIT InnoEnergy): Attabik Awan, Anqi Shi, Robin Barkhausen, Gustavo Gomes Pereira, Piotr Grudzie, Thomas Krstgens, Sameer Chourasia, Iryna Samarukha, and Jane Christina Irawan, Global EV Outlook 2020 Acknowledgements PAGE | 4 IEA. All rights reserved. provided

15、inputs, review, and support for the development of Chapter 4. Matteo Muratori (United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory) provided support for the development of Chapter 5. The following individuals have contributed to developing the activities of the Electric Vehicles Initiative (EVI) on b

16、ehalf of their governments by providing data and assistance, and reviewing this report: Ekta Meena Bibra, Carol Burelle, Aaron Hoskin, Thierry Speiss, Sylvain Roussel and Paula Vieira (Canada); Gabriel Prudencio and Daniela Soler (Chile); Jiayu You (China), Zheng Yali, Hui Lai Zhang, and Jian Liu (C

17、hina); Pentti Puhakka, Mikko Pihlatie and Marko Paakkinen (Finland); Cdric Bozonnat, Clarisse Durand and Sylne Lasfargues (France); Gereon Meyer and Birgit Hofmann (Germany); Abhay Bakre (India); Tatsuya Nagai and Yoshinobu Sato (Japan); Sonja Munnix, Gerben Passier (Netherlands) and Sacha Scheffer

18、(Netherlands); Mitchel Trezona-lecomte and Nesta Jones (New Zealand); Marianne Dalgard, Ingeborg Kjrnli, Daniel Thorsell (Norway); Mia Abramsson, Lina Kinning, Martina Wikstrm (Sweden); Rob Gould, Bob Moran and Tim Ward (United Kingdom). Other contributors to data collection include Miranda Lello (A

19、ustralia); Ricardo Zomer (Brazil) with the help of Bruno Carvalho Doberstein de Magalhes (GIZ); Baldur Petursson, Sigurdur Ingi Fridleifsson, Jn sgeir H. Porvaldsson and Anna Lilja Oddsdttir (Iceland); Alok Ray (Society of manufacturers of electric vehicles, India); Andi Novianto (Indonesia); France

20、sco Vellucci (Italy); Hwanjung Jung (Korea); Huzaimi Omar (Malaysia); Luis Filipe and Olinda Pereira (Portugal); Hiten Parmar (South Africa); Stephan Walter (Switzerland); Yossapong Lao (Thailand) and Michael Berube, Steven Boyd and James Miller (United States). Dan Dorner, Sarbojit Pal, Rui Luo, El

21、lina Levina and Christian Zinglersen from the Clean Energy Ministerial secretariat were also instrumental to facilitate the development of EVI activities and providing relevant inputs to the publication. Peer reviewers provided essential feedback to improve the quality of the report. They include: X

22、avier Moreau (Altergrids); Ryan Melsert (American Battery Metals); Qiang Dai, Jarod C. Kelly and Michael Wang (Argonne National Laboratory); Sohail Hasnie (Asian Development Bank); Robert Spicer (BP plc); Ccile Goubet (AVERE France); Cristiano Faanha (CALSTART); Mridula D. Bharadwaj (Center for Stud

23、y of Science, Technology and Policy); Makoto Dave Yoshida, Tomoya Imazu, Utaka Kamishima, Yasuo Matsunaaga and Tomoko Blech (CHAdeMO Association); Patrick Jochem (DLR); Daniel Noll (Edison Electric Institute); Ana Quelhas (Energias de Portugal SA); Huiming Gong (Energy Foundation China); Cline Cluze

24、l (Element Energy); Chiara dalla Chiesa (Enel X); James Copping, Panagiota Dilara, Filip Francois, Maurizio Maggiore, Julija Sakovica and Cesar Santos (European Commission); Viktor Irle and Roland Irle (EV- Global EV Outlook 2020 Acknowledgements PAGE | 5 IEA. All rights reserved. Volumes); Renske S

25、chuitmaker (Fastned); Patrick Ploetz (Fraunhofer Institute); Ramn Morales Balczar (Fundacion Tant Observatorio Plurinacional de Salares Andinos); Charlotte Argue (Geotab); Dennis Knese (GIZ); Mathy Stanislaus and Jonathan Eckart (Global Battery Alliance); Filippo Berardi and Ming Yang (Global Enviro

26、nment Facility); Kaoru Horie and Yuichiro Tanabe (Honda); Francisco Lavern Simavilla (Iberdrola); Nicholas Lutsey and Dale Hall (International Council on Clean Transportation); Jrme Sabathier (IFPEN); Cristina Corchero Garca (IREC); Nicholas Wagner and Yong Chen (IRENA); Pierpaolo Cazzola (Internati

27、onal Transport Forum); Gen Saito, Hiroyuki Kaneko and Yutaka Fukunaga (Nissan); Kevin Johnsen and Svend Soyland (Nordic Energy Research); Emma Wiesner (Northvolt); Luca Maiotti and Benjamin Katz (OECD); Marcello Contestabile (Qatar Environment Hannah E. Murdock, Rana Adib and Duncan Gibb (REN21); Ch

28、ristell Galbrun-Noel (Schneider Electric); Martin Haigh (Shell); Nikola Medimorec (SLOCAT Partnership on Sustainable, Low Carbon Transport); Thalis P. V. Zis (Technical University of Denmark); Naotaka Shibata (TEPCO); Amy Davidsen, Sandra Roling and James Beard (The Climate Group); Hiroyuki Fukui, M

29、ax Parness and Risa Oya (Toyota); Samuel Karslake (UK BEIS); Fabrice Stassin, Jan Tytgat and Stphane Levasseur (Umicore); Rob de Jong and Alexander Koerner (UNEP); James Turnure, John Maples and Mark Schipper (United States Energy Information Administration); Cabell Hodge, Jeffrey Logan and Matteo M

30、uratori (United States National Renewable Energy Laboratory); Sebastin Castellanos, Vishant Kothari, Ryan Sclar and Lulu Xue (World Resources Institute); Francesco Vellucci, Gerfried Jungmeier and James Miller as members of the Hybrid and Electric Vehicles Technology Collaboration Programme; Daniela

31、 Soler Lavin, Gideon Friedmann and Magnus Lindgren as members of the Advanced Motor Fuels Technology Collaboration Programme and members of the Clean and Efficient Combustion Technology Collaboration Programme. The development of this report was facilitated by contributions from EVI countries and th

32、e Hewlett Foundation for the co-ordination of the Electric Vehicles Initiative by the IEA. Global EV Outlook 2020 Table of contents PAGE | 6 IEA. All rights reserved. Table of contents Executive summary . 10 Introduction . 33 Electric Vehicles Initiative . 34 EV3030 Campaign . 34 Global EV Pilot Cit

33、y Programme . 35 Drive to Zero Campaign . 36 GEF-7 Global Programme on electromobility . 37 Clean Energy Ministerial Horizontal Accelerator for power system integration of EV infrastructure . 37 Scope, content and structure of the report . 37 Chapter 1. Trends in electric mobility . 39 Electric mobi

34、lity developments in the 2010s . 39 Electric car market in 2019: Annual growth slows, but market share increases . 44 EV markets in 2020: the potential impacts of Covid-19 and government responses . 51 Electric mobility trends in other modes . 58 Electric vehicle charging infrastructure deployment .

35、 74 References . 78 Chapter 2. Policies and strategies to deploy electric vehicles and charging infrastructure . 86 Electric vehicle policies . 86 Industry announcements . 132 References . 140 Chapter 3. Prospects for electric mobility deployment to 2030 . 153 Scenario definitions . 153 Electric veh

36、icles . 154 Charging infrastructure . 164 Impact of electric mobility on energy demand . 170 Implications of electric mobility on well-to-wheel GHG emissions . 173 Implications for automotive batteries . 176 References . 181 Chapter 4. Batteries: An essential technology to electrify road transport .

37、 185 Battery technology and performance . 185 Life cycle of automotive lithium-ion batteries . 189 Global EV Outlook 2020 Table of contents PAGE | 7 IEA. All rights reserved. Key messages and policy recommendations . 217 References . 219 Chapter 5. Integrating electric vehicles with power systems . 226 Overview . 226 EV charging . 228 Advanced flexibility . 233 Impact on electricity distribution systems . 239 Conclusions and policy recommendations . 240 References . 243 Annexes .



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