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2022年印度风电展望报告- GWEC(英文版)(38页).pdf

1、India Wind Outlook Towards 2022 Looking beyond headwinds Disclaimer Copyright May 2020 This document contains forward-looking statements. These statements are based on current views, expectations, assumptions and information of the Authors. The Authors and their employees and representatives do not

2、guarantee the accuracy of the data or conclusions of this work. They are not responsible for any adverse effects, loss or damage in any way resulting from this work. Permissions and Usage This work is subject to copyright. Its content, including text and graphics, may be reproduced in part for non-c

3、ommercial purposes, with full attribution. Attribution India wind energy market outlook to 2022: Looking beyond headwinds. Global Wind Energy Council and MEC+. 2020. Editors Swarnim Srivastava (MEC+); Sidharth Jain (MEC+) Joyce Lee (GWEC); Feng Zhao (GWEC); Francis Jayasurya (GWEC); Anjali Lathigara

4、 (GWEC); Alyssa Pek (GWEC) Image credits GWEC (All images except page 18, 28) Adobe Stock (18, 28) 3 About MEC+ MEC+ is a consulting firm focused on the wind and renewables sector for 10 years and is based out of India and Denmark. MEC+ offers insights and strategy support to CXOs, clients include l

5、argest global wind OEMs, European utilities, Global Supply chain players, Equity funds, and Independent Service Providers. MEC+ has done more than 30 cases on facilitating entry, cost benchmarking for localisation, business development within the India wind market or using India as a base. The advis

6、ory is driven by fact-based analysis and in-house proprietary models on availability of land and grid infrastructure; policy, demand and regulatory risks; power pricing scenarios, and M these fault lines can be in terms of grid availability, land availability or payment availability. The prospective

7、 participant in the market must account the nature in their planning and must plan for 3-year horizon, rather than year on year planning. In a brief outline of the report, India has been a traditionally large market - fourth-largest in onshore installations and wind is one of the most competitive ge

8、neration sources on grid today. However, market activity has been hit in last two years. The market has recently been split into three market segments central auctions, state auctions and C project pipeline tracker; C exeCutiVe summAry low tariff caps; off-taker risks; unavailability of grid; and/or

9、 land availability. More than 80% of awarded projects have been delayed by 6-12 months. Clearly, steep pricing competition has come at a cost. Central government tenders1 have lost steam, following a decision to use the extremely low prices (INR 2.4-2.8/kWh) captured in the first six auctions as a b

10、enchmark for an upper price cap in the last two auctions. Such tariffs were not feasible to meet in the face of exhausted grid infrastructure and changes to local land use criteria for awarding new sites. Furthermore, the seven states which manage wind procurement themselves have seen a major declin

11、e in activity. Orders by these states contracted by 60% from 2017 to 2019. Auctions are severely undersubscribed due to the offtaker risk associated with the weak financial position of state distribution companies (DISCOMs) and chronic payment delays to projects installed pre- 2017. Facing financial

12、 pressure, most of these states have moved to central auctions to hedge their payments with federal guarantees. 1 Under Indias highly federalised structure, the seven states with strong wind resource manage their own procurement, while the central government handles procurement for the 20 other stat

13、es. India is one of the top wind markets in the world, but will face uneven growth in the coming years 14 The market is expected to be lumpy in the next three years due to these supply and demand realities, adding 11-17 GW of wind-based power to the installed base. On the supply side, the time requi

14、red for grid enhancement and site development will likely backload installations to around 2022. Accelerating project timelines would require more expensive land or lower-resource sites; the increased capital requirements would in turn drive wind prices upward. On the demand side, prices that exceed

15、 DISCOM-sanctioned budgets will face delays in approval. The government must maintain realistic price expectations in future auctions and ensure the market particularly at state level is sufficiently liquid. Efforts by the government to lower barriers around pricing, grid and land infrastructure mus

16、t be intensified, in order to revive auction appetite and resolve the execution challenges facing Indias wind market. For analysis on the impact of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic on the Indian wind energy market, see “Note on the impact of COVID-19.” WIND INSTALLATION FORECAST availability of inve

17、stments in market and activity in state auctions increases In base case, grid gets partially augmented while investments and state activity continues to be the same In low case, grid continues to be a problem; multiple projects are cancelled with limited investments and no state activity Market acti

18、vity remains limited with extensions provided to projects delayed due to grid, land allotment and investments Market can vary substantially depending upon the augmentation of grid at Bhuj in 2021 Retirement of ISTS charge waive- offs and easing of grid issues in 2022 creates rush for installation 50

19、.6 GW 48.3 GW Scenario Definitions Base case 2020 4.2 3.3 2.6 6.0 4.3 3.3 6.5 5.5 4.9 20212022 Low caseHigh case Source: GWEC; MEC+ Analysis 15 note on the impACt of CoVid-19 GWEC and MEC+ recognise the impact of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic may be far-reaching across the wind industry and the wide

20、r economy in India and beyond. The content of this report is current as of Q1 2020; due to the dy- namic nature of the pandemic, the forecasts and market outlook herein have not been adjusted to factor in the potential consequences of the virus. Howev- er, the report should be read with a view to th

21、e following points: Outlook for 2020: The impact of COVID-19 will impose a drag on market growth in 2020, due to extended project timelines and supply chain dis- ruptions, compounded by the non-availability of grid and land challenges already impacting installations. Beyond 2020, uncertainty around

22、new tendering and the overall business environment may prolong the impact. Project timelines extended: All renewable energy projects under construc- tion will be granted an extension of commissioning deadlines, due to the nationwide lockdown imposed on 24 March 2020. The total active pipeline under

23、implementation is around 8.6 GW. Nearly 3 GW of this was sched- uled to be commissioned in 2020, 5.2 GW in 2021 and the remaining 0.4 GW in 2022. The extension is expected to be more relevant for projects due to be commissioned in Q3/Q4 2020. 2020-2021 installations: We estimate nearly 0.7-1.1 GW of

24、 projects due to be commissioned in 2020 may shift forward to 2021, which shrinks the base case forecast from 3.3 GW to 2.2-2.6 GW in 2020, much closer to the earlier low case. We expect that projects to be commissioned in 2021 will remain on-track, as most have power supply agreements. New volume a

25、t risk: The lockdown is expected to impact new project tendering. In total, nearly 3.5-4 GW of wind capacity was expected to be tendered in 2020 and 2021. Currently 3.2 GW of tenders have been notified by the government (2 GW SECI Wind Tranche IX and 1.2 GW Hybrid Tranche III); however, no closure d

26、ate of the tenders can be ascertained. A delay in new tenders in 2020 could lower total forecast installations to 11.5-12 GW for the period to 2022, compared to 13 GW projections in the base case. In addition, India was struggling with weak balance sheets of its lending companies before the pandemic

27、 which could now exacerbate the risks to new projects to be tendered in the coming few months or those yet to achieve FID. Supply chain disruption: Although limited O however, the enforceability and application of this clause is yet to be seen. As India is the largest wind turbine production base af

28、ter China in the Asia-Pa- cific region, and is also a significant producer of gearboxes globally, the suspension of OEM activity will have adverse impacts beyond the Indian market. Economic relief package: The government approved an economic relief package for the power sector, focusing on state-own

29、ed electricity DIS- COMs. The package includes a three-month moratorium on payments by DISCOMs and waives penalty fees for late payments. The government also issued guidelines to grant renewables must-run status and instructed renewable power producers to issue electronic invoices to DISCOMs during

30、the lockdown. This came after a number of state DISCOMs invoked force majeure to suspend procurement of renewables and defer payments, increasing the risk of non-payment of dues and the potential for stressed assets. Prepared: April 2020 1. indiA wind energy seCtor: BACkground Indias electricity gri

31、d has a total installed base of 370 GW, as of March 2020. Of this capacity, 54% comprises coal-fired generation and 23% comprises renewable energy. In the last 10 years, the share of renewables in the power system has increased from 5% to nearly one-quarter of total capacity. Within the global wind

32、energy sector, India has the fourth-largest installed base of wind power plants, reaching 37.5 GW at the end of December 2019. Nearly three-fourths of this capacity was installed in the last 10 years under a feed-in-tariff (FiT) regime, at an annual average of 2-3 GW and with installation peaking in

33、 2017. In 2017, India introduced an auction mechanism in addition to FiTs. The market has been adjusting to the new procurement scheme in the last two years, and capacity deployment has since reduced. Looking towards 2030, India is among the worlds fastest-growing electricity markets, with power dem

34、and expected to double. Plans are in place for a massive installation of 460 GW of new installed capacity to fulfil this upcoming demand. The new installation plans are heavily inclined towards renewables, with three-quarters of new power generation deriving from wind and solar, and 100 GW exclusive

35、ly from new wind installations. Under these targets, cumulative wind power installations would grow to 140 GW.2 2 According to the draft optimal generation mix 2030 published by Central Electricity Authority of India (CEA). FIGuRE 1 | HIGH GROWTH IN WIND INSTALLATIONS ExPECTED Installations vs targe

36、ts for wind 2010 to 2030 GW 13 25 38 60 100 140 201020152030201920222027 +12% +13% Installed Base Targets Source: CEA; Newspaper articles; MEC+ Analysis 17 2. wind CompetitiVeness The competitive landscape for renewable energy in India will intensify in the future The increasing role of renewable en

37、ergy in fulfilling future demand is mainly driven by low costs.3 An influx of both capital and technology within renewables has led to a steep decline in LCoE over the last four years. As of December 2019, wind is the second most cost-competitive resource on the grid after solar. Variation in wind L

38、CoE is seen across the country due to variable resource availability and development costs.4 On average, wind LCoE is roughly 35% cheaper than the majority of coal plants present in the country.5 3 Wind, solar and conventional costs are exclusive of the transmission and firming costs. 4 Optimal site

39、s in the country have wind speed above 7.5 m/s, while wind-based plants are also located on sites with wind speeds between 6 to 6.5 m/s. 5 Referencing coal-based plants typically located 500 km from domestic coal mines but using domestic coal as fuel. As illustrated in the graph below, the gap betwe

40、en the cost of generation from renewable energy and conventional sources widens towards 2022, due to the continuing decline in technology cost of wind and solar energy and the increasing cost of equipment and raw materials for coal-based power plants. The costs of wind and solar energy are expected

41、to decline by 7% and 11% by 2022, respectively, driven by the reduction in technology costs and operating expenses. Solar costs are expected to experience a steeper decline due to the removal of import protection duties. 18 Coal, on the other hand, is expected to get costlier by 9% in the next three

42、 years majorly driven by increased equipment costs6 to meet new environmental standards and escalating domestic raw material costs. These dynamics put wind and solar energy in a preferred position in terms of market value, prompting the government to adopt a blended approach to coal and renewables.

43、6 Equipment costs are increasing due to addition of flue-gas desulphurisation systems that have been mandated by the government. FIGuRE 2 | RENEWAbLES ARE CHEAPEST RESOuRCE ON GRID , TODAy AND IN FuTuRE LCoE comparison of sources (new vs new), 2019 and 2022 INR/kWh Note: Wind and solar LCoE calculat

44、ions done at 11% internal rate of return while coal calculations done at 16% return on equity Does not include transmission and distribution charges for any source Pit-head are coal plants using domestic coal and located near the mine; domestic far plants also use domestic coal but are located far f

45、rom the mine (500 km); Imported fuel plants make use of imported Australian coal Source: CEEW; BNEF; Lazard; MEC+ analysis WindSolarCoal Min 3.2 5.7 Imported Fuel 2.7 3.6 Pit-head 2.8 3.2 4.3 Domestic far Max 2019 35% cheaper Min 2.4 3.9 Pit-head 3.1 3.0 2.6 5.5 Imported fuel 4.6 Domestic far Max 20

46、22 WindSolarCoal 43% cheaper 19 3. Current mArket ACtiVity Market activity has slowed down in recent years Despite high capacity targets for wind energy and its strong cost-competitiveness, new installations in the market have declined by 50% in the last two years. Government has put more than 17 GW

47、 of capacity up for auction since 2017, however, nearly one-third was either unsubscribed or cancelled/ abandoned after being awarded. From 2017 to 2018, auctions were oversubscribed by 30-35% on an average, and tenders fully awarded. However, activity has severely declined in the last year with nea

48、rly 60-70% of volume unallocated in auctions. By 2019, authorities decided to use the extremely low prices (INR 2.4-2.8/kWh) captured in the first six auctions as a benchmark for an upper price cap in the last two auctions. Developers were not able to meet these price expectations and issues around

49、infrastructure availability held them back from par- ticipating in these recent auctions. Of the 12 GW awarded within auctions in the last three years, 80-85% have been delayed by 6-12 months.7 These projects have either been granted extensions by government agencies or have ap- plied for the same. On top of this, 1-1.5 GW of projects have been cancelled or are at risk of cancellation due to issues in the availability of land, grid or power purchase agreement (PPA) signing delays. Hence, the present installation pipeline is highly un- certain, wit

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