2020年全球离岸风能展望报告 - GWEC(英文版)(102页).pdf

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2020年全球离岸风能展望报告 - GWEC(英文版)(102页).pdf

1、GWEC.NET GLOBAL OFFSHORE WIND REPORT 2020 1 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 2 GWEC.NET Global Wind Energy Council Rue Belliard 51-53 1000 Brussels, Belgium T. +32 490 56 81 39 Table of Contents Lead Authors Joyce Lee, Feng Zhao Contributing Authors Alastair Dutton, Ben Backwell, Liming Qiao,

2、 Shuxin Lim, Anjali Lathigaralead, Wanliang Liang Published 5 August 2020 Design Aspire Design, New Delhi Sponsored by Foreword 5 Market Status 2019 9 Market Outlook 2030 13 Taking Offshore Global 31 Offshore Wind Technologies 80 Conclusion 95 Appendix 98 Abbreviation 99 3 GWEC I Global Offshore Win

3、d Report 2020 4 GWEC.NET Foreword Alastair Dutton Chair of Global Offshore Wind Task Force, GWEC As we push through 30GW global capacity for offshore wind we see a number of themes. In Europe, the market that started it all, the installation rate is accelerating. Asia is picking up the pace with Chi

4、na installing more capacity in 2019 than any other country. This leadership is expected to continue through this decade. The message that the price of power from offshore wind has fallen to out-compete fossil fuels and nuclear, has been understood in many parts of the world. Themes Rapid Growth Its

5、been quite a journey since I first got involved in the offshore wind industry 20 years ago. Offshore wind energy took its first steps in the 1990s and has been growing in scale ever since. In recent years, however, growth has accelerated. From being 1% of global wind installations by capacity in 200

6、9, offshore wind has grown to over 10% in 2019. Measured in investment terms that figure is much greater. Offshore wind is now a mature industry, but is only just beginning its expansion in earnest around the world. Given that more than 70% of the planet is covered by sea, and wind speeds are consid

7、erably stronger offshore than onshore, the fundamentals are promising. Going Global Offshore wind is going global, country by country. This piecemeal development is unhelpful for a supply chain which is seeking to make sound investments and continue to reduce costs. However, there are a number of in

8、itiatives which aim to accelerate offshore winds deployment: GWECs Global Offshore Wind Task Force, established in September 2018, has brought together the major industry players in offshore wind. Key interventions have been in Taiwan, Vietnam and Japan to assist market development. The World Banks

9、ESMAP Offshore Wind Development Program, launched in March 2019, is focused on expanding offshore wind to developing countries. The program is engaging numerous countries which will form part of the wider global market in years to come. The Ocean Renewable Energy Action Coalition (OREAC), launched i

10、n Dec 2019, targets 1.4 TW of offshore wind by 2050. This industry body is in answer to the UN High Level Panel for Sustainable Ocean Economy call for action in Sept 2019. These initiatives are in co-operation and complement each other for greater effect. 5 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Fr

11、om being 1% of global wind installations by capacity in 2009, offshore wind has grown to over 10% in 2019 Future Markets Existing markets are hungry for more, notably UK, Germany, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium and China. As an example, the UK is targeting 40 GW by 2030, up from 10 GW today. Emerging

12、 markets include Taiwan, US Atlantic Coast, Japan, South Korea and Vietnam. Not only do these markets want low cost electricity to decarbonize their footprint but they are keen to establish their own supply chains to benefit their economies. However, inflexible local content requirements could frust

13、rate those economic hopes by raising the cost of electricity and creating inefficient local suppliers not able to compete on a regional or global market. New markets are in the preparation phase. Examples include Brazil, Mexico, India, Sri Lanka, Australia and many more. In Europe the existing marke

14、t will expand into Ireland, Poland, Lithuania and others. Floating technology will come of age this decade, tripling the technical potential for offshore wind across the world. Initially the key markets are France, Japan, South Korea, Scotland, Norway, Portugal, Spain and US Pacific Coast. Once comm

15、ercial scale projects are established and costs come down many other locations will come into play, for example South Africa, Canada, Philippines and many island states. Lessons Learned Much has been learned from the last 30 years of offshore wind deployment in Europe. Those lessons are being taken

16、worldwide by developers and consultants. Governments are adapting those lessons in the context of their particular political and fiscal backdrops. One of those lessons is the UK Sector Deal which outlines targets and plans for government and industry to work together to dramatically progress the sec

17、tor for the benefit of all. This best practice is now being adopted in other markets such as Japan and Poland. COVID-19 To date offshore wind has been less impacted than most energy sectors by the pandemic, and stands ready to be a material part of a green recovery package. Conclusion The potential

18、of offshore wind to achieve the energy transition within the right time frame and contribute to post-COVID recovery is increasingly being understood around the world. At GWEC, we look forward to working with you all to realise this potential 6 GWEC.NET Offshore Wind The technology that is changing t

19、he world We tend to seek in every crisis an opportunity, inspired by the dual meaning of the word in Chinese. The COVID-19 crisis is not over yet, but it is already bringing to centre stage the offshore wind industry as one key element of the response to the global challenge we are all facing. By re

20、vealing the previously unheralded achievements of offshore wind technology and operations, the focus on economic recovery is creating one of these moments in history when things suddenly accelerate. It is a time of positive disruption, because the need is clear and the solution readily available and

21、 scalable. A pioneering industry The offshore wind pioneers of the early 90s might have known that they were creating something special by unlocking the power of wind at sea, but not even the most optimistic at the time could foresee the truly transformative impact that offshore wind would have on t

22、he worlds energy mix. 30 years ago, there was not a single MW installed offshore, but with current market predictions, there could be up to 1,400 GW installed worldwide over the next 30 years. Offshore wind technology has advanced dramatically over the past few decades. A single offshore wind turbin

23、e now has more capacity than the output of the worlds first two offshore wind parks combined. New technologies such as floating foundations enable installation in deeper waters, paving the way for another range of geographical opportunities for offshore wind. Exponential growth ahead 2020 was always

24、 destined to be a big year for our industry. Many nations now see offshore wind as one of the key pillars to ensuring that they successfully reach their decarbonisation strategies, necessary to keep global warming under 1.5C. From the pivotal role offshore wind will play in delivering the European G

25、reen Deal and in the UK economic recovery plan, to rapid growth in the Asia Pacific region, now home to the largest market in China, to continued progress in US federal and state waters, offshore wind is beginning to witness exponential growth across the world. GWEC and its partners are also working

26、 tirelessly to ensure that the next round of emerging markets such as those in Latin America and India, capitalise on the lessons learned from the three decades of experience. This will increase our chances as an industry of reaching the global potential of offshore wind by 2050. Philippe Kavafyan C

27、EO, MHI Vestas 7 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Lessons learned What learnings can be shared as an increasing number of countries look to deliver many more projects further out to sea whilst reaping the industrial benefits of offshore wind? The gradual, organic build up in the European supp

28、ly chain has seen the rejuvenation of coastal communities, the growth of second and third tier suppliers across the continent, and skill development pathways to help transition workforces from sunsetting to sunrising industries. With such valuable social and economic value and the continual reductio

29、n in cost of energy, it is easy to see why offshore wind is becoming so appealing. The success seen in Europe has created expectations around the globe that offshore wind will generate economic value as well as deliver a low cost of energy to power sustainable, green economies, regionally. The indus

30、try has demonstrated that the supply chain will come with volume organically. As turbines become even larger and more powerful, offshore logistics dictate that supply chains have to be regional and draw upon the cheapest, highest quality suppliers of components from the region. There is also an ever

31、-increasing gap between the “raw” MWs that many nations are targeting ahead of 2030- 2050 renewable energy plans and the “qualified” MWs that can actually be installed by 2030-2050. As the size and complexity of projects increase, greater emphasis must be placed on reducing inefficiencies during the

32、 permitting process to ensure projects can be delivered on time and reach these targets. The industry has clear vision on the stakeholders and challenges that typically cause delays, and these challenges must be addressed and resolved by collaboration with the industry and policymakers before MW tar

33、gets can be considered qualified and offshore wind can grow as a sector. The COVID-19 effect Without a doubt, COVID-19 has changed the world forever. When the pandemic first hit, the industrys focus was on ensuring continuity of business in both the supply chain and in operating offshore wind parks.

34、 The industry demonstrated strong resilience, notably in the challenging conditions for construction and service. Having risen to the initial challenge, the industry now has the opportunity to direct funds set aside for green recovery stimulus packages to accelerate the investments in the necessary

35、infrastructure that will help unleash the potential of the oceans and the economic potential of many countries. Investment in grids, ports, Power-to- Green Hydrogen projects all have the potential to rapidly increase deployment of offshore winds. If the delays in the permitting process can also be m

36、inimised through renewed political willpower, then offshore wind is ready to deliver on its potential. Rising to the challenge John F Kennedy once said, “these are extraordinary times. And we face an extraordinary challenge. Our strength as well as our convictions have imposed upon this nation the r

37、ole of leader”, and while he may have originally been speaking about freedom, it is an apt quote for the offshore industry to adopt. The green energy transition needs our leadership, we have a very important role to play guiding the world through these exceptional circumstances, setting a practical

38、course to reach global decarbonisation targets. This GWEC report provides a snapshot of the industry today, and the potential we have to realise together in partnership to ensure the future of our planet. 8 GWEC.NET MARKET STATUS 2019 9 GWEC I Global Offshore Wind Report 2020 Annual installations Wi

39、th 6.1 GW new capacity added, 2019 was the best year in history for the global offshore wind industry. China achieved a new record in 2019, installing 2.4 GW offshore wind in a single year. The United Kingdom came in second place, although it also had record installations of 1.8 GW in 2019. With 1.1

40、 GW of new installations, Germany took the third place, followed by Denmark and Belgium. The results from the UK CfD Allocation Round 3 announced in September 2019 showed record low strike prices ranging from 39 to 41/MWh (in 2012 prices), which is about 30% lower than the auction held in 2017. In t

41、otal, more than 5.4 GW offshore wind projects were awarded. In The Netherlands, Vattenfall won the second Dutch zero-subsidy offshore wind tender, totalling 760 MW, in July 2019 (repeating the zero-priced bids of the first round in 2018 and meaning that the project will only receive the wholesale pr

42、ice of electricity and no further support/payment). Those results prove how offshore costs have come down through technology innovation and economies of scale. The US offshore sector made great progress last year. The countrys total offshore wind procurement targets increased from 9.1 GW in 2018 to

43、25.4 GW in 2019 after New York and New Jersey upgraded their offshore targets, and more states released their offshore wind targets. Six states had selected more than 6 GW of offshore wind through state-issued solicitations as of December With 6.1 GW of new capacity added, 2019 was the best year in

44、history for the global offshore wind industry. 10 GWEC.NET 2019 and more solicitations are expected to be issued in New York and New Jersey in 2020. The industry is now moving a phase of project construction planning and execution as more than 15 offshore projects are expected to be built by 2026. D

45、evelopment in the Asian offshore markets was also positive in 2019 Taiwan connected its first utility-scale offshore project to the grid. On top of the 5.6 GW offshore wind to be installed by 2025, a further 10 GW is planned to be built offshore from the island between 2026 and 2035. Positive steps

46、were also made in Japan last year to accelerate offshore wind development with its first offshore wind auction launched in summer 2020. Globally, offshore wind installations have grown from 3.4 GW in 2015 to 6.1 GW 2019, bringing its market share in global new installations from 5% to 10% in just fi

47、ve years. Cumulative installations The global offshore market grew on average by 24% each year since 2013, bringing the total installations to 29.1 GW, which accounted for 5% of total global wind capacity as the end of 2019. Europe remains the largest offshore market as the end of 2019, making up 75

48、% of total global offshore wind installation. 0.1 Offshore share of new installations 1% New installations GW, affshare Rest of worldChinaEurope 2-3% 2006 0.10.2 0.5 0.6 0.10.2 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.2 1.6 1.6 3.2 2.7 3.6 2.4 1.2 1.6 1.5 3.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 1.7 1.7 3.4 2.2 4.5 4.3 6.1 - 0.1 -0.03 0.4 0.6 2007200

49、820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019 4%8%10% * Compound Annual Growth Rate Source: GWEC Market Intelligence, March 2020 CAGR* +24% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 However, the activity level in Asia keeps increasing with China taking the lead followed by Taiwan, Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea. North America has only 30 MW offshore wind in operation in the US as of 2019 but deployment will accelerate in the coming years. The top five offshore wind market in total installations are: The UK, Germany, China, Denmark and Belgium. 11 GWE

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