2019年世界风能发展报告 - GWEC(英文版)(78页).pdf

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2019年世界风能发展报告 - GWEC(英文版)(78页).pdf

1、GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL SOUTH EAST ASIA GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL SOUTH EAST ASIA TASK FORCE LATIN AMERICA WORK FORCE OFFSHORE WIND TASK FORCE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GLOBAL WIND ENERGY

2、 COUNCIL OFFSHORE GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL LATAM GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 GWEC.NET GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 In Memory of Steve Sawyer 10 July 1956 31 July 2019 5 Steve Sawyer came into the wind industry after a courageous and distinguished career as a campaigner and then Director of Gr

3、eenpeace International, where he notably campaigned against nuclear testing on the Rainbow Warrior, and led the campaign to hold the government of Francois Mitterrand to account following the bomb attack against the Warrior in July 1985. He faced personal danger on numerous occasions, before steerin

4、g the organisation towards an increased emphasis on the issue of climate change, and with it, greater engagement with the nascent renewable energy industry. He joined GWEC as its first General Secretary in 2007, as he was convinced that wind industry would play a fundamental role in replacing greenh

5、ouse gas emissions and in leading the transition to a new energy system. For over 10 years, Steve tirelessly represented the wind industry and worked to convince governments to adopt wind as the solution to grow their economies while reducing emissions. During Steves tenure at the head of GWEC, glob

6、al wind installations grew from 74GW to 539GW and became one of the worlds most important energy sources. He contributed significantly to the development of the wind industry in places such as India, China, Brazil and South Africa. He was a prominent speaker in public and private forums, and wrote i

7、nnumerable articles, blogs and position papers. He was a mentor to many young people and their inspiration for getting involved with wind energy, and he was a faithful and loyal friend to many of us in the industry, Steve Sawyer was a true wind warrior and an inspiration for everyone involved in the

8、 climate and renewables area. Here at GWEC, we are determined to continue his legacy and passion for fighting climate change and creating a world that is powered by 100% renewable energy. GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 GWEC.NET 6 GWEC.NET 6 GWEC Events 2020 7 Tribute to Steve Sawyer 5 Foreword 8 Int

9、roduction 12 Industry Sustainability 15 Technical solutions 28 Market Status 2019 35 Markets to Watch 45 Market Outlook 2020-2024 70 Appendix 74 Table of Contents Global Wind Energy Council Rue Belliard 51-53 1000 Brussels, Belgium T. +32 2 213 18 97 Lead Authors Joyce Lee, Feng Zhao Text edited by

10、Alastair Dutton, Ben Backwell, Ramon Fiestas, Liming Qiao, Naveen Balachandran, Shuxin Lim, Wanliang Liang, Emerson Clarke, Anjali Lathigaralead Published 25 March 2020 Design lemonbox www.lemonbox.co.uk GLOBAL WIND ENERGY COUNCIL GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 GWEC.NET 8 Ive been in the renewables

11、sector long enough to look back and measure our progress. From niche beginnings, wind and solar are now helping to stabilize global energy-related CO2-emissions in 2019. This is a tremendous achievement and a strong point of departure for a new decade. The good news is that wind and solar will grow

12、significantly over the years to come. From being rather expensive two decades ago, wind and solar are today more cost-competitive than new-built coal or gas in about two-thirds of the world. Over the next decade, it will become more cost-efficient to build new wind and solar than to run existing coa

13、l or gas plants. Combine this with the increasing global commitment to combat climate change and we will see tremendous growth ahead of us. To take advantage of this opportunity, focus now needs to be on how to speed up the energy market transformation. There is little doubt the current energy syste

14、m is probably not the answer to the question of what a highly renewable and zero-emission society looks like. Todays task is to adapt todays systems to the characteristics of variable renewable energy sources. Markets need to be designed to provide fair remuneration to technologies, infrastructure a

15、nd solutions enabling the decarbonisation of energy and governments need to disincentivise the polluting technologies that belong to yesterday. We dont have to start from zero. Experience from more and more countries and regions that successfully showcase the integration of double-digit shares of re

16、newables is creating a growing body of knowledge on how to successfully decarbonise our energy systems. This experience will prove helpful to countries that are still in the earlier phases of transition. As an industry, we need to support this knowledge step and commit to be a key and responsible pl

17、ayer in the transforming energy markets. We have to go beyond individual renewable energy technologies recommending policy solutions thought up in isolation. We now have to start working together across sectors, across countries and start discussing how to promote technologies that increase system v

18、alue, broad renewables-based electrification, from wind to solar, electric vehicles to fuel-cells, from electric heating to power-to-X. This is a task no sector will be able to deliver on its own. But as the wind sector, we can and must lead the way. GWEC as the global wind organisation is well posi

19、tioned to push for the changes that are needed. The many new members who joined us in the course of 2019 prove that GWEC has become more relevant than ever. This year we must to build on this success and make GWEC even stronger to lead the global fight for a fully decarbonised energy sector. Word fr

20、om the Chairman Morten Dyrholm Chairman Global Wind Energy Council 8 GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 9 Climate change is progressing at an alarming speed, and fighting it is a challenge we must all accept to make sure the next generation will find life on this earth wort

21、h living. Through its high CO2 abatement potential, wind energy can help stop global warming. It is not only the most sustainable but also the most economical source of energy. Well aware of these opportunities and our responsibility, we take a strong stand, as reflected in our motto for WindEnergy

22、Hamburg 2020: “Its time to put climate first.” We want to provide the industry with the opportunity and space to network, pave the way to the future of wind energy, and drive the energy transition. In pursuit of this goal, we collaborate closely with the Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC). We are del

23、ighted that Hamburg Messe und Congress has arranged a long-term partnership with GWEC for WindEnergy Hamburg, the global onshore and offshore event, and is once again the sponsor of the Global Wind Report. Because in these times of great challenges, the wind industry needs not only plenty of energy

24、and perseverance but also solid data and facts. For the next WindEnergy Hamburg in September 2020 we have stepped up our collaboration with GWEC and WindEurope. For the first time, we are planning an open conference programme on three stages set up right in the middle of the exhibition halls. This e

25、ntirely new event concept will drive knowledge transfer around the globe and allow all trade fair visitors to get directly involved. Our “Global Business” stage, run by WindEurope and GWEC, will cover mainly non-European markets and how to do business there. The “Empowering People” stage will be run

26、 by WindEurope and focus on the human side of the energy transition: health and safety, skills, acceptance and permitting, happy coexistence with communities and other stakeholders such as maritime spatial planners, community engagement, and biodiversity preservation. Our “Power4Climate” stage will

27、be all about the “downstream” side of the energy transition, in particular electrification of energy consuming activities like heating, transport and industrial processes, as well as energy storage, hydrogen, and power-to-X. Furthermore, we are once again offering a traditional, centralised conferen

28、ce with a comprehensive agenda, lectures and discussions. Together with our Global Partner GWEC and our co-organiser WindEurope we are pleased to once again welcome 1,400 exhibitors and 35,000 attendees from over 100 countries to the biggest gathering of the global wind industry. Let us join togethe

29、r to put climate protection at the top of our priority list, because that is where it belongs. Its Time to Put Climate First Word from the sponsor 9GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 Bernd Aufderheide President and CEO Hamburg Messe und Congress GWEC.NET 10 Last year was a big year for the wind industry

30、. With installations of 60.4 GW, 2019 was the second largest year in history and close to the bumper year of 2015 (63.8 GW) However, the industry is still far from reaching the accelerated level of growth which we know we can deliver, and which is expected from us by international institutions, gove

31、rnments and the public. There is unprecedented political momentum behind the scaling up of wind and other renewable energy technologies, as young people around the world take action in response to the growing climate emergency, and policy makers realise that the window for taking action on a suffici

32、ent scale to preserve a liveable environment is closing. As we move toward the crucial COP26 meeting in November, governments are setting increasingly ambitious targets, obliging the total decarbonisation of the power sector and rapid progress on decarbonising transport, manufacturing, heating and o

33、ther sectors. However, these targets are largely “top-down” statements of intent the hard work of delivering greater volumes of wind installations across the world to meet these targets remains to be done. The challenge ahead of us is to create a sustained, accelerated period of growth that will see

34、 the wind industry quickly reach installations of 100+ GW per year, and then rise by the end of the decade to 200 GW per year and beyond. In 2019, the rapid growth in installations was largely the result of a strong year in both China and the US the worlds two largest markets ahead of the expiry of

35、Feed-in Tariffs for onshore in the first country and the PTC in the second. Some of the worlds other large mature markets, for example India and Germany, once again reflected institutional weakness, while in some emerging markets, growth stalled as governments delayed scheduled tenders. This pattern

36、 of stop-go growth needs to be overcome if the wind industry is to step up and meet the expectations of the global community. In the Global Wind Report four years ago, GWECs then- Secretary General Steve Sawyer (who sadly passed away in July last year - see page 5) was able to report on a year of re

37、cord installations (2015), and point to one clear factor driving growth forward: the establishment of wind as the most price competitive source of new power capacity. The continuing progress that our industry has made to reduce LCOE is an achievement of lasting significance that puts our industry in

38、 a position of strength. However, it has since become clear that cost-competitiveness alone will not necessarily guarantee that the energy transition is carried out at the required pace, or that wind will be installed to replace fossil fuels. Welcome to the Global Wind Report 2019 Ben Backwell CEO G

39、lobal Wind Energy Council The challenge ahead of us is to create a sustained, accelerated period of growth 11GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 In some countries, the impact of ambitious targets and competitive prices has been nullified by inadequate permitting systems or lack of access to land or trans

40、mission infrastructure. In others, weak regulatory systems or a lack of transparency in procurement have meant that public and private actors continue to install damaging coal power generation plants, despite the attendant high economic and social costs. The move from FiTs to auction- based procurem

41、ent and other market-based mechanisms has undoubtedly had positive effects in terms of price discovery and pushing down the cost of energy. However, it has too often benefited incumbent fossil fuel generation, and in some markets has nurtured a “race to the bottom” that is challenging the sustainabi

42、lity of our supply chain and our companies. In GWECs view then, there is a strong need for an adequate enabling system which allows renewable energy to be installed steadily and rapidly and incentivises the phaseout of fossil fuels from the system. Thats why the theme of this years Global Wind Repor

43、t is: “Beyond LCOE Moving towards an accelerated rate of wind energy installations to power the energy transition”. The report looks at a number of key challenges which need to be addressed in order to supersede this bumpy pattern of growth and uses case studies to illustrate these challenges. These

44、 challenges include: the need for appropriate market design which accounts for the effect of fast-growing volumes of variable renewable power on wholesale prices, and the positive impact of long-term price visibility; the impact of inadequate enabling environments the biggest contributing factor in

45、slowing renewables growth and investments; weak policy targets; weak government capacity for instance to design regulatory frameworks for onshore and offshore wind, and to align permitting processes between different levels of authority; and inadequate investment in grid. In GWECs view, as the clima

46、te emergency becomes more acute, governments will need to consider the urgency of improving policy to address these challenges. This may require radical changes in how legal systems and institutions are organised. As an industry, the strong achievements we have made in the last decade in technology,

47、 knowhow and scale mean we stand ready to play a crucial part in the energy transition. But we are going to have to work hard this year ahead of COP26 in Glasgow to ensure that policy makers understand the changes needed in order for us to meet key challenges and deliver wind powers global potential

48、. These issues will be at the centre of GWECs work in 2020 and beyond. We invite you all to work with us to reach our objectives and safeguard the position of wind power in the energy transition. As the climate emergency becomes more acute, governments will need to consider the urgency of improving

49、policies to address these challenges. GWEC.NET 12 INTRODUCTION 12 GWEC.NET 13GWEC | GLOBAL WIND REPORT 2019 Feng Zhao Strategy Director Global Wind Energy Council 2019 was a big year for the global wind industry with new installations surpassing the 60 GW milestone for only the second time in history, and showing year-over- year (YoY) growth of 19 per cent. Market status The 60.4 GW of new installations brings global cumulative wind power capacity up to 651 GW. In the onshore market, 54.2 GW was installed, an increase of 17 per c

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