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2019年清洁能源转型中材料效率报告 - 国际能源署(英文版)(162页).pdf

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2019年清洁能源转型中材料效率报告 - 国际能源署(英文版)(162页).pdf

1、Material efficiency in clean energy transitions International Energy Agency Material efficiency in clean energy transitions Abstract Page | 1 Abstract Materials are the building blocks of society, making up the buildings, infrastructure, equipment and goods that enable businesses and people to carry

2、 out their daily activities. Economic development has historically coincided with increasing demand for materials, resulting in growing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from materials production. Clean energy transitions must decouple these trends. Material efficiency strategies

3、 can contribute to CO2 emissions reduction throughout value chains. Despite being an often- overlooked emissions mitigation lever, opportunities for material efficiency exist at each life- cycle stage, from design and fabrication, through use and finally to end of life. Pushing these strategies to t

4、heir practical yet achievable limits could enable considerable reductions in the demand for several key materials. Conversely, the demand for some materials may moderately increase while delivering favourable emissions benefits at other points in the value chain. As a result, improved material effic

5、iency can reduce some of the deployment needs for other CO2 emissions mitigation options while achieving the same emissions reduction, thus contributing to clean energy transitions. This analysis examines the potential for material efficiency and the resulting energy and emissions impact for key ene

6、rgy-intensive materials: steel, cement and aluminium. It includes deep dives on the buildings construction and vehicles value chains, and outlines key policy and stakeholder actions to improve material efficiency. Important actions include: increasing material use data collection and benchmarking; i

7、mproving consideration of the life-cycle impact in climate regulations and at the design stage; and promoting repurposing, reuse and recycling at end of product and buildings lifetimes. Material efficiency in clean energy transitions Abstract Page | 2 Highlights Economic development has historically

8、 relied on increasing material demand, which has led to growing energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from materials production. Applying material efficiency strategies throughout value chains can help to decouple these trends. Clean energy transitions will affect established materia

9、l demand trends. In the Clean Technology Scenario, material efficiency and technology shifts result in lower material demand relative to the Reference Technology Scenario, in which material demand trends broadly follow historical trends. By 2060, in the Clean Technology Scenario, material demand is

10、lower than in the Reference Technology Scenario: 24% lower for steel, 15% lower for cement and 17% lower for aluminium. Material efficiency contributes approximately 30% of the combined CO2 emissions reduction for these three materials between the two scenarios in that year. Considerable potential e

11、xists to push material efficiency even further than in the Clean Technology Scenario. Pursuing material efficiency to highly ambitious yet achievable limits in a Material Efficiency variant leads to additional demand reductions for steel (16%) and cement (9%) in 2060. Demand for aluminium increases

12、slightly relative to the Clean Technology Scenario (by 5% in 2060), but CO2 emission benefits at other stages of the value chain outweigh this increase. Material efficiency strategies result in more moderate deployment needs for low-carbon industrial process technologies to achieve the same decarbon

13、isation outcome. In the Material Efficiency variant, cumulative industrial CO2 emissions are the same as in the Clean Technology Scenario, although the emissions intensity is higher for steel (by 4% in 2060) and cement (by 7% in 2060). The emissions intensity of aluminium is somewhat lower (by 9% in

14、 2060). Combined cumulative capital investment on low-carbon industrial process technologies for steel, cement and aluminium is 4% lower by 2060 in the Material Efficiency variant than in the Clean Technology Scenario. Efforts from governments, industry and the research community are needed to enabl

15、e greater uptake of material efficiency. Key actions include: increasing material use data collection and benchmarking; improving consideration of the life-cycle impact in climate regulations and at the design stage; and promoting repurposing, reuse and recycling at end of product and buildings life

16、times. Material efficiency in clean energy transitions Executive summary Page | 3 Executive summary Clean energy transitions require decoupling of economic growth from material demand Economic development has historically relied on ever-increasing material demand. However, producing materials consum

17、es resources and energy, resulting in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and other environmental effects. Clean energy transitions will affect established material demand trends, through a combination of technology shifts and pursuit of material efficiency strategies. Potential for material efficiency e

18、xists throughout value chains, including through designing for long life, lightweighting, reducing material losses during manufacturing and construction, lifetime extension, more intensive use, reuse and recycling. This report examines material efficiency opportunities and implications for three ene

19、rgy- intensive materials steel, cement and aluminium and includes deep dives on two major material consuming value chains: buildings construction and vehicles. Material efficiency can contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. In the Clean Technology Scenario, which aligns with the objectives of the Pari

20、s Agreement, material demand is reduced compared to in the Reference Technology Scenario: by 24% for steel (equivalent to about six times the production in the United States in 2017), 15% for cement (two and a half times the production in India in 2017) and 17% for aluminium (1.2 times the primary p

21、roduction in the Peoples Republic of China in 2017) in 2060. Material efficiency contributes approximately 30% of the combined emissions reduction for these three materials in the Clean Technology Scenario in 2060. In the buildings sector, reduced materials demand contributes 10 gigatonnes of cumula

22、tive emissions reduction to 2060 in the Clean Technology Scenario, which is a 10% reduction in CO2 emissions from steel and cement use in buildings relative to the Reference Technology Scenario. The demand reduction is largely because of extended buildings lifetimes that are pursued in concurrence w

23、ith energy efficiency retrofits. In the transport sector, vehicle lightweighting contributes approximately 10% of the global 2060 total passenger light-duty vehicle use-phase emissions reduction in the Clean Technology Scenario relative to the Reference Technology Scenario. This is a substantial por

24、tion in the context of the many other emissions reduction strategies such as engine and powertrain efficiency measures and fuel switching (including electrification) being pursued in road vehicles. Further ambitions on material efficiency can reduce deployment needs for low-carbon industrial process

25、 technologies and achieve emissions reduction throughout value chains Considerable potential exists to push material efficiency beyond the Clean Technology Scenario. The Material Efficiency variant achieves the same degree of energy sector decarbonisation as the Clean Technology Scenario. But it pur

26、sues material efficiency strategies to even more ambitious, yet achievable, limits, considering real-world technical, political and behavioural constraints. Strategies pushed considerably further are those more challenging to adopt from the perspective of requiring greater regulatory efforts, stakeh

27、older co-ordination, value chain integration, investment, training, shifts in business practices or behavioural change Material efficiency in clean energy transitions Executive summary Page | 4 (e.g. improved buildings design and construction, substantial vehicle lightweighting and material reuse).

28、This leads to further material demand reductions compared to in the Clean Technology Scenario, especially for steel (16%) and cement (9%) in 2060. Aluminium use increases (by 5% in 2060) due to vehicle lightweighting outweighing other strategies that put downward pressure on demand. Material efficie

29、ncy strategies lead to more moderate deployment needs for low-carbon industrial process technologies for the same CO2 emissions outcome. The Material Efficiency variant achieves the same cumulative industrial emissions as the Clean Technology Scenario, but with a higher emissions intensity for steel

30、 (by 4% in 2060) and cement (by 7% in 2060). The emissions intensity of aluminium is somewhat lower (by 9% in 2060). The required cumulative capital investment on low-carbon industrial process technologies is 4% lower by 2060 compared to in the Clean Technology Scenario. For example, cumulative capt

31、ured and stored CO2 emissions are 45% lower in the cement sector when material efficiency strategies are pursued to such an extent. Additional material efficiency efforts can achieve emissions reduction beyond the Clean Technology Scenario in some value chains. For example, in the vehicle supply cha

32、in, improved fuel efficiency through additional vehicle lightweighting in the Material Efficiency variant reduces net emissions beyond the Clean Technology Scenario by 17% for passenger light-duty vehicles and 9% for light commercial and heavy-duty vehicles in 2060. Total emissions from material pro

33、duction for vehicles increase moderately due to higher production of aluminium, plastics and composites. But this rise is outweighed by emissions savings during vehicle use. In the buildings sector, additional material efficiency efforts relieve pressure on industry without necessarily decreasing bu

34、ildings use-phase emissions. Policy and stakeholder efforts are needed to improve material efficiency Material efficiency does not come without challenges and costs. Real and perceived risks, costs, time constraints, fragmented supply chains, regulatory restrictions and lack of awareness are some of

35、 the many barriers to greater uptake of material efficiency strategies. Improving material efficiency will in many cases incur costs, although estimates suggest that these may fall within a reasonable range compared to other emissions mitigations options. Efforts from all stakeholders will enable gr

36、eater uptake of material efficiency. Governments and industry can work together to further develop regulatory frameworks and business models in support of material efficiency. Industry can consider the life-cycle impact when designing products and buildings, facilitated by increased data collection

37、and rigorous life-cycle assessment conducted in partnership with researchers. Increasing efforts on end-of-life repurposing, reuse and recycling are also key. Consumers can play a role by increasing demand for material-efficient products that contribute to reducing CO2 emissions. Material efficiency

38、 in clean energy transitions Findings and recommendations Page | 5 Findings and recommendations Policy recommendations Increase data collection on material use and the life-cycle impact to set benchmarks and promote best practices. Improve consideration of the life-cycle impact in climate regulation

39、s to promote material- efficient choices at the design stage. Adopt policies that promote durability and long lifetimes to incentivise, for instance, refurbishing and repurposing of buildings instead of demolition. Set incentives to reuse and recycle to reduce the need for higher-emission primary ma

40、terials production, and improve integration of supply chains to facilitate these strategies. Shift from prescriptive to performance-based design standards, so that efforts to use materials more efficiently are not unnecessarily restricted. Promote education and training programmes on material effici

41、ency. Historical demand trends for materials Materials are the fundamental building blocks of society. They make up the buildings, infrastructure, equipment and goods that enable businesses to operate and people to carry out their daily activities. They enable services such as transport, shelter and

42、 mechanical labour, in many cases through the use of energy. Global demand for key materials has grown considerably over past decades. Since 1971, global demand for steel has increased by three times, cement by nearly seven times, primary aluminium by nearly six times and plastics by over ten times.

43、 Material consumption growth has coincided with population and economic development. In the same period, global population doubled, while global gross domestic product (GDP) grew nearly fivefold. Although materials bring benefits to society, they are also a source of environmental impact. Converting

44、 raw materials into materials for use results in substantial energy consumption and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Along with growth in material demand, energy and emission effects from materials production have grown substantially, by more than one and a half times over the last 25 years. Industry

45、 accounted for nearly 40% of total final energy consumption and nearly one-quarter of direct CO2 emissions in 2017. Material efficiency in clean energy transitions Findings and recommendations Page | 6 Demand growth for key materials, GDP and population Figure 1. Notes: Outputs of different industri

46、al sectors are displayed on an index basis referred to 1971 levels. Aluminium refers to primary aluminium production only. Steel refers to crude steel production. Plastics include a subset of the main thermoplastic resins. Sources: Geyer, R., J.R. Jambeck and K.L. Law (2017), “Production, use and fa

47、te of all plastics ever made”, https:/doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1700782; worldsteel (2018), Steel Statistical Yearbook 2018, www.worldsteel.org/en/dam/jcr:e5a8eda5-4b46- 4892-856b-00908b5ab492/SSY_2018.pdf; IMF (2018), World Economic Outlook Database, www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2018/01/weodata/in

48、dex.aspx; USGS (2018a), 2016 Minerals Yearbook: Aluminium, https:/minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/aluminum/myb1-2016-alumi.pdf; USGS (2018b), 2015 Minerals Yearbook: Cement, https:/minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/cement/myb1-2015-cemen.pdf; USGS (2017), 2015 Minerals Yearbook: Ni

49、trogen, https:/minerals.usgs.gov/minerals/pubs/commodity/nitrogen/myb1-2015-nitro.pdf. Levi, P.G. and J.M. Cullen (2018), “Mapping global flows of chemicals: From fossil fuel feedstocks to chemical products”, https:/doi.org/10.1021/acs.est.7b04573. Demand for materials has grown considerably over past decades. Much of the growth since 2000 has been due to rapid development in the Peoples Republic of China (“China”). Global industry final energy consumption and direct CO2 emissions Figure 2. Notes: Industry % of total is indust

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