安永:2024中国经济前三季度稳中有进增量政策加⼤逆周期调节报告(英文版)(10页).pdf

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安永:2024中国经济前三季度稳中有进增量政策加⼤逆周期调节报告(英文版)(10页).pdf

1、Chinas economy on track inthe first three quarters,incremental policies tointensify counter-cyclicaladjustmentsNovember 2024Facing complex and volatile domestic and internationalenvironments,China has maintained stable economicexpansion in the first three quarters,with the grossdomestic product(GDP)

2、growing 4.8%year-on-year(YOY)1.Although Q3 GDP grew 4.6%YOY,the slowestgrowth rate since Q1 2023,some macro indicatorsimproved slightly in September,implicating thedemand-supply gap will possibly recover gradually inthe coming months.The technology and innovation advantage continued toenhance,with t

3、he production and investment of high-tech manufacturing leading the average level.Consumption spending showed a moderate recoverythanks to the intensified efforts on trade-in ofconsumer goods measures,which will spur the demandof automobiles,household appliances and home decorscontinuously.The count

4、rys foreign trade hit recordhigh in the first three quarters,driven by the exports ofhigh-end equipment.To conquer the unbalanced and inadequate growth,thegovernment made economic stability as top priority andintroduced a package of incremental policies recently,including lowering reserve requiremen

5、t ratio(RRR)andinterest rate,reducing the interest rates on existingmortgages and unifying the minimum down paymentratio.Resolving local government debts will be one offiscal priorities and it will mitigate short-term liquidityrisks,optimize the government debt structure andboost market sentiment.Ch

6、inas economy will possibly gain renewed momentumin Q4,with upward trajectory in infrastructure andmanufacturing investment and consumption recoverypromoted by vouchers in various cities.Weakeningexternal demand will put more pressure on theindustrial production and exports.The property marketis expe

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