看不见的大猩猩——智能时代的企业生存和发展之路-韦青.pdf

1、看不见的大猩猩-智能时代的企业生存和发展之路微软(中国)公司首席技术官韦青The Monkey Business Illusion by Daniel Simons(journal article:https:/doi.org/10.1068/i0386).Get our new book,*Nobodys Fool:Why We Get Taken In and What We Can Do About It*available July 11,2023.猩猩与大象：明显的、简单的和困难的方案在实验中，大多数人会因信息的引导而对明显的“大猩猩”视而不见；在现实中，除了舆论的引导，人们还会因显

2、而易见而选择视而不见；一般是针对明显但需要长期投入才能解决问题的方案，也可称为“房间里的大象”。The Invisible GorillaThe Monkey Business Illusion实践与观察1亲身实证微软转型的体会1.人的问题最复杂2.人的思想转型最难3.成长型思维是关键4.企业的转型是由一群愿意转型的人所推动5.人工智能以优质的数据为食6.优质的数据来自于数字化的流程、产品、服务与员工7.最终来自于因为新工具能力而实现的流程再造8.流程再造/组织变革会触动既得利益者的利益9.因此还是人的问题9.只不过强大的技术力量会促进改革的进程系统论控制论信息论短板效应整体与个体综合与分析互

3、联於孤立错综与复杂纠偏机制愿景与当下目的与偏差纠偏与反馈通讯与控制“真假虚实”信号与噪声信息与内容讯息与理解符号与所指转型者可以依赖的思维范式提问“计算机是否能思考”，就像问“潜艇是否能游泳”The question of whether computers can think is like the question of whether submarines can swim1.Do only what only you can do;2.In their capacity as a tool,computers will be but a ripple on the surface of

4、 our culture.In their capacity as intellectual challenge,they are without precedent in the cultural history of mankind.3.The tools we use have a profound and devious influence on our thinking habits,and therefore on our thinking abilities.4.Computer Science is no more about computers than astronomy

5、is about telescopes.5.Much of the excitement we get out of our work is that we dont really know what we are doing.艾兹格W迪科斯彻 Edsger Wybe Dijkstra(19302002)马车与发动机一个思想实验*插图由DALL-E生成西摩尔派普特 Seymour Papert(19282016)是在马车上装个引擎，还是因为引擎的出现而开创一个全新的时代？这是个好问题2机器的使命应对复杂性和紧迫性的能力是衡量人类组织与制度的标准，但是复杂性和紧迫性已经超越了人类可以应付的程度。

6、我突然意识到如果你能够做点什么来提高人类应对这种挑战的能力，那么你真的能为社会做出一些贡献。These two factors,complexity and urgency,are the measure for human organizations and institutions.The complexity/urgency factor had transcended what humans can cope with.I suddenly flashed that if you could do something to improve human capability to cop