1、 内需内需回落回落，出口仍高增长出口仍高增长 摘要摘要 三季度，珠三角珠三角城市生产放缓，投资与消费增速继续回落，但出口保持强劲。具体来看：（1）工业生产持续放缓，广州、佛山、肇庆进入负增长；（2）固定资产投资大范围负增长；（3）民间投资和外商投资持续下滑，但肇庆外商投资逆势增长 28 个月；（4）社消增速继续回落至 1%左右，不及全国平均水平；（5）进、出口当中深圳贡献五成且有提升之势。香港香港方面，旅游业加速回暖，楼市成交短暂反弹后下调，贸易保持增长，IPO 融资规模重归全球第四位。澳门澳门方面，旅游业加快复苏，博彩业稳定增长，横琴澳资企业数量不断增加。展望 2024 年四季度及全年湾区经

2、济形势，本文认为：（1）预计将有政策刺激投资和消费，但实现全年增长目标仍有困难；（2）全球经济增长态势趋稳利好外需释放，地缘冲突和贸易限制使不确定性增加；（3）工业企业产能或将进一步放缓，供需不匹配局面有望改善。_北大汇丰智库经济组、前海中英研究院（撰稿人：岑维、王若林）成稿时间：2024 年 11月 1日?|总第10?期|2023-2024 学年第9期联系人：程云（0755-26032270，）经济分析系列 1 Domestic demand remains low amid high exports Abstract In the third quarter of 2024,product

3、ion in Pearl River Delta cities slowed down,investment and consumption growth rates continued to decline,while exports remained animated.Specifically:(1)Industrial production growth rate slowed down,and turned negative for Guangzhou,Foshan,and Zhaoqing.(2)Fixed assets investments in most cities got

4、reduction.(3)Private and foreign investment continued to decline,but Zhaoqing has attracted plenty of foreign capitals in the last 27 months.(4)The growth rate of social consumption declined to around 1%,which is lower than the national average level.(5)Imports and exports of Shenzhen contributed ab

5、out 50%of the whole GBA and this number is likely to rise.As for Hong Kong,the tourism industry experienced high growth because of the summer vacation.Transactions in property market decreased after a short rebound in the second quarter.Trade continued to grow.IPO financing scale improved a lot and

6、Hong Kong became the fourth largest global financing center again.About Macau,the tourism industry also boomed like Hong Kong.More tourists brought a 15.5%growth for the local gambling industry.The cooperation between mainland and Macau continued to advance.Hengqin has attracted an increasing number