1、IS THE FED BEHIND THE CURVE?ISSUE 131|Sept ember 3,2024|6:40 PM EDTVGlobal Macro ResearchInvestors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.For Reg AC certification and other important disclosures,see the Disclosure Appendix,or go to Goldman Sachs Group

2、,Inc.Just as US inflat ion concer ns moved int o t he r ear view,t he l abor mar ket st ar t ed sending wor r ying signal s,wit h t he Jul y jobs r epor t t r igger ing t he Sahm r ul e,r aising t he quest ion of whet her t he Fed is behind t he cur ve in cut t ing r at es and t he r isk of r ecessi

3、on.For mer r egional Fed Pr esident s Bil l Dudl ey and Rob Kapl an,Sahm r ul e cr eat or Cl audia Sahm,and GS GI R s David Mer icl e have var ying l evel s of concer n about t he l abor mar ket,wit h Dudl ey most wor r ied about t he r isk of a negat ive f eedback l oop bet ween job l osses and r e

4、duced spending t hat woul d l ead t o r ecession,Sahm somewhat concer ned,and Kapl an and Mer icl e l ess wor r ied.They al so gener al l y disagr ee on whet her t he Fed has wait ed t oo l ong t o cut,wit h Mer icl e and Kapl an ar guing t hat t he Fed is not meaningf ul l y behind t he cur ve,Sahm

5、 mor e concer ned t hat t he Fed has yet t o act,and Dudl ey wor r ied t hat t he Fed may al r eady be t oo l at e t o aver t r ecession.GS st r at egist s ar gue t hat mar ket s ar e vul ner abl e t o shar p cor r ect ions shoul d r ecession occur,but t hat r isky asset s woul d have r oom t o r un

6、 if it doesn t.“I NTERVI EWS WI TH:Bill Dudley,For mer Pr esident of t he Feder al Reser ve Bank of New Yor k Rob Kaplan,For mer Pr esident of t he Feder al Reser ve Bank of Dal l as,Vice Chair man at Gol dman Sachs Claudia Sahm,Chief Economist at New Cent ur y Advisor s,For mer Sect ion Chief at t