1、November 2023Krungsri Research2Global:Diverging growth prospects amid cyclical slowdown and structural challengesChinaEconomic stimulus meet structural headwinds.Short-term rebound in policy support.Structural slowdown amid the property crisis,high debt,tech war,and weak global demand.USPreparing fo

2、r a slowdown or soft landing dragged by unusually tight credit conditions.The Fed might start to unwind policy tightening in 2H24 or cut real interest rates to avoid a hard landing.EuropeLacks key growth drivers,growth is supported by low-base effect and softer inflation.Clear signs of slowing infla

3、tion and stagnating growth could prompt the ECB to cut interest rates in mid-2024.JapanGrowth will lose momentum amid fading reopening tailwinds.However,wage hike and high inflation could prompt the BOJ to gradually unwind ultra-loose monetary policy in 1H24.Global growth loses momentum amid fading

4、post-covid recovery tailwinds,tightermonetary policies,and less fiscal support3424446485052545658Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22Nov-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23DISource:S&P global,Capital Economics,Bloomberg,Krungsri Research4244464850525456Jul-22Aug-22Sep-22Oct-22No

5、v-22Dec-22Jan-23Feb-23Mar-23Apr-23May-23Jun-23Jul-23Aug-23Sep-23Oct-23DIGlobalUSChinaJapanEurozoneGlobalUSChinaJapanEAGlobal Services PMIGlobal Manufacturing PMI-10.7-3.9-8.1-8.4-11.4-3.5-5.5-5.6-6.5-2.4-6.8-6.6-8.8-2.7-5.7-6.6-7.6-2.4-3.8-6.72020202120222023F2024FForecast-1.000.001.002.003.004.005.

6、006.00Mar-16Sep-16Mar-17Sep-17Mar-18Sep-18Mar-19Sep-19Mar-20Sep-20Mar-21Sep-21Mar-22Sep-22Mar-23Sep-23Mar-24Sep-24China*USEAJapanNote:*1-year best lending rateUKPolicy Interest Rates(%)Fiscal Deficit Projections 2024(%of GDP)4Slow global recovery with greater regional divergence,challenging to retur