1、Can Labour get the economy growing again?17th July 2024UK Economic OutlookPwC 2UK Economic Outlook 1Summary32Growth53Inflation144Labour market215Fiscal spotlight:The future of fuel duty27ContentsSummary1PwC 4UK Economic Outlook Key points1Labour are entering office just as growth momentum is picking

2、 upThe worst of the cost of living crisis is behind us and momentum in economic activity is picking up.With global tailwinds-stable energy prices and looser monetary policy globally-the new Government appears to be benefitting from the natural swings of the economic cycle.Our main scenario projectio

3、ns indicate that the economy is likely to expand by around 1%this year,followed by faster growth in the two years after that.But a more interesting question is whether the Government will be able to meet its more ambitious target,i.e.to secure the highest sustained growth in the G7.On inflation,in o

4、ur main scenario,we expect the headline rate to fluctuate around the 2%target for the rest of 2024,as services inflation takes longer to normalise.That means it is not quite job done yet,but we expect the Bank of England will have seen enough progress to start the rate-cutting cycle later this year.

5、23The Government can unlock faster growth rates over the next decade by focusing on the“3Is”There are three key areas,which we call the“3Is”where the Government and businesses can make a crucial difference to help reach the ambitious growth target.Inactivity:Drive down economic inactivity back to pr

6、e-pandemic levels,focusing on the underlying issues such as physical and mental health(see Box C).Industrial strategy:Devise and methodically implement a multi-faceted industrial(and services)strategy centred around skills,infrastructure and planning and the green transition(see our Framework for Gr