1、simon-Joerg TritschlerMartin SlusarczykSantiago WochnerThe wild west of sales forecasting in pharmaceuticalsWhen expectation meets reality ContentsExecutive Summary 3Pharmaceutical companies in search of growth 4Sales forecasting:A cornerstone for decision-makers in pharma 6Comprehensive 5-year anal

2、ysis of sales forecast discrepancies 7Substantial deviations in pharma sales forecasts 8Exploring the drivers of forecast deviations beyond the numbers 10Insights for future growth in pharma 12Supplementary information(SI)13References 16Authors 173Executive SummaryThe pharmaceutical industry faces m

3、ajor challenges,as patent exclusivity for around 200 drugs will expire by 2030.The magnitude of these losses of exclusivity can affect up to 79 percent of a firms revenue,depending on the portfolio composition of the company in question.To sustain growth amidst declining R&D productivity,leading pha

4、rmaceutical companies are increasingly turning to inorganic growth strategies,such as licensing agreements,to replenish their pipelines.For example,between 2015 and 2021,72 percent of FDA-approved drugs were not developed in-house but were sourced via inorganic growth.But the success of such agreeme

5、nts depends on accurate due diligence assessments and forecasting.This raises a critical question about the accuracy of sales forecasts that influence business decisions in pharma,which our report examines.Our analysis of 50 US prescription drugs in the first five years after approval showed that th

6、e majority of sales forecasts were off by a large margin.Only 12 percent had a 25 percent margin of accuracy,while 30 out of 50 were off by a factor of two or more.Furthermore,we analyzed the 10 drugs with the largest deviations between forecasts and actual sales to identify the drivers leading to t